Exploring the impacts of climate and policy changes on coastal community resilience: Simulating alternative future scenarios

The article opens by briefly reviewing studies of sexuality in and around organizations from the 1970s. These studies showed considerable theoretical, empirical and conceptual development, as in the concept of organization sexuality. Building on this, the article’s first task is to analyse alternative future scenarios for organization sexualities, by way of changing intersections of gender, sexuality and organizational forms. Possible gendered future scenarios are outlined based on, first, gender equality/inequality and, second, gender similarity/difference between women, men and further genders: hyper-patriarchy scenario—men and women becoming more divergent; with greater inequality; late capitalist gender scenario—genders becoming more convergent, with greater inequality; bi-polar scenario—men and women becoming more divergent, with greater equality; postgender scenario—genders becoming more convergent, with greater equality. Somewhat similar scenarios for organization sexualities are elaborated in terms of gender/sexual equality and inequality and sexual/gender similarity and difference: heteropatriarchies scenario—greater sexual/gender difference and greater sexual or sexual/gender inequality; late capitalist sexual scenario—greater sexual/gender similarity and greater sexual or gender/sexual inequality; sexual differentiation scenario—greater sexual/gender difference and greater sexual or sexual/gender equality; sexual blurring scenario—greater sexual/gender similarity and greater sexual or sexual/gender equality. The article’s second task is to addresses the impact of globalizations and transnationalizations, specifically information and communication technologies and other socio-technologies, for future scenarios of organization sexualities. The characteristic affordances of ICTs—technological control, virtual reproducibility, conditional communality, unfinished undecidability—are mapped onto the four scenarios above and the implications outlined.

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Coastal community resilience frameworks for disaster risk management

Natural Hazards ◽

10.1007/s11069-020-03875-3 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 101 (2) ◽

pp. 595-630 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Arif Almutairi ◽

Monjur Mourshed ◽

Raed Fawzi Mohammed Ameen

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Community Resilience ◽

Disaster Risk ◽

Disaster Risk Management ◽

Coastal Community

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Coastal community resilience: analysis of resilient elements in 3 districts of Tamil Nadu State, India

Journal of Coastal Conservation ◽

10.1007/s11852-011-0178-8 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 101-110 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Sushma Guleria ◽

J. K. Patterson Edward

Keyword(s):

Tamil Nadu ◽

Community Resilience ◽

Coastal Community ◽

Tamil Nadu State

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Rapid assessment of historic, current and future habitat quality for biodiversity around UK Natura 2000 sites

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s0376892914000137 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 42 (1) ◽

pp. 31-40 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

I. N. VOGIATZAKIS ◽

M. T. STIRPE ◽

S. RICKEBUSCH ◽

M. J. METZGER ◽

G. XU ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Rapid Assessment ◽

Natura 2000 ◽

Landscape Composition ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

High Quality ◽

Alternative Future ◽

European Development ◽

Alternative Scenarios ◽

Taxonomic Groups

SUMMARYChanges in landscape composition and structure may impact the conservation and management of protected areas. Species that depend on specific habitats are at risk of extinction when these habitats are degraded or lost. Designing robust methods to evaluate landscape composition will assist decision- and policy-making in emerging landscapes. This paper describes a rapid assessment methodology aimed at evaluating land-cover quality for birds, plants, butterflies and bees around seven UK Natura 2000 sites. An expert panel assigned quality values to standard Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover classes for each taxonomic group. Quality was assessed based on historical (1950, 1990), current (2000) and future (2030) land-cover data, the last projected using three alternative scenarios: a growth-applied strategy (GRAS), a business-as-might-be-usual (BAMBU) scenario, and sustainable European development goal (SEDG) scenario. A quantitative quality index weighted the area of each land-cover parcel with a taxa-specific quality measure. Land parcels with high quality for all taxonomic groups were evaluated for temporal changes in area, size and adjacency. For all sites and taxonomic groups, the rate of deterioration of land-cover quality was greater between 1950 and 1990 than current rates or as modelled using the alternative future scenarios (2000–2030). Model predictions indicated land-cover quality stabilized over time under the GRAS scenario, and was close to stable for the BAMBU scenario. The SEDG scenario suggested an ongoing loss of quality, though this was lower than the historical rate of c. 1% loss per decade. None of the future scenarios showed accelerated fragmentation, but rather increases in the area, adjacency and diversity of high quality land parcels in the landscape.

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Using Alternative Future Scenarios for Integrating Impact Assessments

Integrated Impact Assessment ◽

10.4324/9780429045196-6 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 72-83

Author(s):

Kan Chen

Keyword(s):

Future Scenarios ◽

Alternative Future

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Mapping Out Climate Change: Assessing How Coastal Communities Adapt Using Alternative Future Scenarios

Journal of Coastal Research ◽

10.2112/jcoastres-d-17-00115.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 34 (5) ◽

pp. 1196 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Eva Lipiec ◽

Peter Ruggiero ◽

Alexis Mills ◽

Katherine A. Serafin ◽

John Bolte ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Alternative Future

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Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-12-4413-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 4413-4428 ◽

Cited By ~ 39

Author(s):

T. M. Butler ◽

Z. S. Stock ◽

M. R. Russo ◽

H. A. C. Denier van der Gon ◽

M. G. Lawrence

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Mixing Ratios ◽

Background Ozone ◽

Alternative Future ◽

Modelling Studies ◽

Emissions Scenarios ◽

Ozone Precursor ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

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