Using Alternative Future Scenarios for Integrating Impact Assessments

2019 ◽  
pp. 72-83
Author(s):  
Kan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Alternative Future

scholarly journals Sexualities, organizations and organization sexualities: Future scenarios and the impact of socio-technologies (a transnational perspective from the global ‘north’)

Organization ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 400-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Hearn
Keyword(s):  
Gender Difference ◽  
Gender Equality ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Conceptual Development ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Alternative Future ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Gender Similarity ◽  
The Impact

The article opens by briefly reviewing studies of sexuality in and around organizations from the 1970s. These studies showed considerable theoretical, empirical and conceptual development, as in the concept of organization sexuality. Building on this, the article’s first task is to analyse alternative future scenarios for organization sexualities, by way of changing intersections of gender, sexuality and organizational forms. Possible gendered future scenarios are outlined based on, first, gender equality/inequality and, second, gender similarity/difference between women, men and further genders: hyper-patriarchy scenario—men and women becoming more divergent; with greater inequality; late capitalist gender scenario—genders becoming more convergent, with greater inequality; bi-polar scenario—men and women becoming more divergent, with greater equality; postgender scenario—genders becoming more convergent, with greater equality. Somewhat similar scenarios for organization sexualities are elaborated in terms of gender/sexual equality and inequality and sexual/gender similarity and difference: heteropatriarchies scenario—greater sexual/gender difference and greater sexual or sexual/gender inequality; late capitalist sexual scenario—greater sexual/gender similarity and greater sexual or gender/sexual inequality; sexual differentiation scenario—greater sexual/gender difference and greater sexual or sexual/gender equality; sexual blurring scenario—greater sexual/gender similarity and greater sexual or sexual/gender equality. The article’s second task is to addresses the impact of globalizations and transnationalizations, specifically information and communication technologies and other socio-technologies, for future scenarios of organization sexualities. The characteristic affordances of ICTs—technological control, virtual reproducibility, conditional communality, unfinished undecidability—are mapped onto the four scenarios above and the implications outlined.

scholarly journals Exploring the impacts of climate and policy changes on coastal community resilience: Simulating alternative future scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 80-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Community Resilience ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Coastal Community ◽  
Alternative Future

scholarly journals Rapid assessment of historic, current and future habitat quality for biodiversity around UK Natura 2000 sites

2014 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. N. VOGIATZAKIS ◽  
M. T. STIRPE ◽  
S. RICKEBUSCH ◽  
M. J. METZGER ◽  
G. XU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Natura 2000 ◽  
Landscape Composition ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Alternative Future ◽  
European Development ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
Taxonomic Groups

SUMMARYChanges in landscape composition and structure may impact the conservation and management of protected areas. Species that depend on specific habitats are at risk of extinction when these habitats are degraded or lost. Designing robust methods to evaluate landscape composition will assist decision- and policy-making in emerging landscapes. This paper describes a rapid assessment methodology aimed at evaluating land-cover quality for birds, plants, butterflies and bees around seven UK Natura 2000 sites. An expert panel assigned quality values to standard Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover classes for each taxonomic group. Quality was assessed based on historical (1950, 1990), current (2000) and future (2030) land-cover data, the last projected using three alternative scenarios: a growth-applied strategy (GRAS), a business-as-might-be-usual (BAMBU) scenario, and sustainable European development goal (SEDG) scenario. A quantitative quality index weighted the area of each land-cover parcel with a taxa-specific quality measure. Land parcels with high quality for all taxonomic groups were evaluated for temporal changes in area, size and adjacency. For all sites and taxonomic groups, the rate of deterioration of land-cover quality was greater between 1950 and 1990 than current rates or as modelled using the alternative future scenarios (2000–2030). Model predictions indicated land-cover quality stabilized over time under the GRAS scenario, and was close to stable for the BAMBU scenario. The SEDG scenario suggested an ongoing loss of quality, though this was lower than the historical rate of c. 1% loss per decade. None of the future scenarios showed accelerated fragmentation, but rather increases in the area, adjacency and diversity of high quality land parcels in the landscape.

Mapping Out Climate Change: Assessing How Coastal Communities Adapt Using Alternative Future Scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 1196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Lipiec ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
Alexis Mills ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
John Bolte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Alternative Future

scholarly journals Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4413-4428 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. M. Butler ◽  
Z. S. Stock ◽  
M. R. Russo ◽  
H. A. C. Denier van der Gon ◽  
M. G. Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Background Ozone ◽  
Alternative Future ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

Putting watershed restoration in context: Alternative future scenarios influence management outcomes

2009 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 218-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. H. Fullerton ◽  
E. A. Steel ◽  
Y. Caras ◽  
M. Sheer ◽  
P. Olson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Watershed Restoration ◽  
Alternative Future

scholarly journals Alternative future scenarios for South Korea in 2030

Futures ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 27-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeonju Son
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Alternative Future

Scenario analysis for commercial Internet content delivery

Info ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 54-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Zhang ◽  
Timo Smura ◽  
Björn Grönvall ◽  
Heikki Hämmäinen
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Content Delivery ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Internet Service ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Future ◽  
Content Provision ◽  
Delivery Networks ◽  
Technical Solutions

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the key uncertainties and to construct alternative future scenarios for Internet content delivery. The relative positions and roles of different actors and content delivery technologies in each scenario are then discussed. As traffic volume rapidly grows, the current Internet architecture faces scalability issues. To meet the demand, technical solutions utilizing caching and name-based routing are developed. Design/methodology/approach – This work followed a scenario planning process, and two workshops were organized for identifying the key trends and uncertainties. Industry architecture notation was used to systematically illustrate and compare the constructed scenarios. Findings – Of the 94 forces identified, the revenue model and Internet service provider's (ISP’s) role in content provision were singled out as the two most important uncertainties, upon which four scenarios were constructed. In-network caching technologies are strong candidates in ISP-dominated scenarios. Content delivery networks are more likely outcomes in scenarios, where content providers’ role is significant. Research limitations/implications – The paper focuses on qualitative analysis of scenarios. Utilizing, for instance, system dynamics to model interdependencies between the trends and uncertainties could provide a path toward quantitative analysis. Originality/value – The paper increases understanding of relative positions and roles of different actors and technologies in possible future scenarios. The findings are important, especially for ISPs, content providers and technology vendors. The scenarios can be used to identify desirable futures and strategies to achieve them and to make informed choices in technology design to meet the demands of key actors.

Organizational Psychology and the Tipping Point of Professional Identity

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 241-258
Author(s):  
Ann Marie Ryan ◽  
J. Kevin Ford
Keyword(s):  
Professional Identity ◽  
Collective Identity ◽  
Organizational Psychology ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Individual Identification ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Alternative Future ◽  
Academic Psychology ◽  
Collective Sensemaking ◽  
External Forces

Using concepts from the literature on individual and collective identity, we argue that organizational psychologists are at a tipping point with regard to identity. Assertions regarding a lack of distinctiveness from other fields, ambiguity in individual identification with the field among new entrants, hyperadaptation to external forces, and a failure to manage within-identity dynamics associated with science and practice are presented. These assertions are supported with descriptions of the nature of growth in the field, challenges in academic psychology departments, and calls for changing research agendas. With the aim of engaging others in collective sensemaking, alternative future scenarios for organizational psychology are presented.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document