Erratum to “A Bayesian approach to estimating mortality rates using hazard functions: Application to an Australian halfbeak, Hyporhamphus australis ﬁshery” [Fish. Res. 243 (2021) 10606]

Ecologists and foresters have long noted a link between tree growth rate and mortality, and recent work suggests that interspecific differences in low growth tolerance is a key force shaping forest structure. Little information is available, however, on the growth-mortality relationship for most species. We present three methods for estimating growth-mortality functions from readily obtainable field data. All use annual mortality rates and the recent growth rates of living and dead individuals. Annual mortality rates are estimated using both survival analysis and a Bayesian approach. Growth rates are obtained from increment cores. Growth-mortality functions are fitted using two parametric approaches and a nonparametric approach. The three methods are compared using bootstrapped confidence intervals and likelihood ratio tests. For two example species, Acer rubrum L. and Cornus florida L., growth-mortality functions indicate a substantial difference in the two species' abilities to withstand slow growth. Both survival analysis and Bayesian estimates of mortality rates lead to similar growth-mortality functions, with the Bayesian approach providing a means to overcome the absence of long-term census data. In fitting growth-mortality functions, the nonparametric approach reveals that inflexibility in parametric methods can lead to errors in estimating mortality risk at low growth. We thus suggest that nonparametric fits be used as a tool for assessing parametric models.

Download Full-text

MODELLING UNCERTAINTIES IN ASSESSING RISKS TO STRUCTURES CAUSED BY ACCIDENTAL EXPLOSIONS/NEAPIBRĖŽTUMŲ MODELIAVIMAS VERTINANT AVARINIŲ SPROGIMŲ RIZIKĄ PASTATAMS

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management ◽

10.3846/13921525.2001.10531709 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 89-98

Author(s):

Egidijus Rytas Vaidogas

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Approach ◽

Hazard Functions ◽

Modelling Uncertainties

Siūloma procedūra avarinių sprogimų mechaninių poveikių neapibrėžtumams kiekybiškai įvertinti. Nagrinėjamas pavojingasis reiškinys yra dėl avarinių dujų nuotėkių susidarančių degių ir sprogių debesų detonacija ir jos sukeliama sprogimo banga. Sprogimų poveikių intensyvumai yra apibūdinami tikimybinei rizikos analizei įprastomis pavojaus funkcijomis (angl. hazard functions). Galutinis siūlomosios procedūros taikymo rezultatas yra pavojaus funkcijų parinkimas statistinių imčių, sukurtų stochastinio modeliavimo būdu, pagrindu. Taikomas Monte Karlo metodas, o modeliuojami nepalankieji reiškiniai, kurių eskalacija baigiasi dujų ir oro misinio debesies detonacija. Siūlomos procedūros taikymo rezultatai leidžia įvertinti dinamines apkrovas, galinčias veikti tiriamą (vertinamą konstrukcinę sistemą įvykus aptariamo tipo sprogimui. Teoriu požiūriu siūloma procedūra remiasi tikimybinės rizikos analizės metodologija, kuri vadinama klasikiniu Bėjeso požiūriu (angl. classical Bayesian approach). Teigiama, kad sprendžiant nagrinėjamą problemą yra sunku išsiversti be Bėjeso požiūrio, nes pavojaus funkcijas tenka parinkti labai ribotos statistinės informacijos sąlygomis. Taikant procedūrą operuojama stochastiniais (angl. aleatory) ir pažintiniais (angl. epistemic) neapibrėžtumais. Skaiciuojant pagal procedūros algoritmą neapibrėžtumai, susiję su sprogimų pavojaus funkcijomis, yra išreiškiami per ,žemesnio" lygio neapibrėžtumus, apibūdinančius tuos reikškinius, kurių eskalacija gali baigtis sprogimu. Pastebėta, kad šiems neapibrėžtumams kokybiškai išreiksti turima daug daugiau statistinės informacijos, nei neapibrėžtumams, tiesiogiai susijusiems su mechaniniais sprogimo bangos poveikiais konkreciai konstrukcinei sistemai. Numatoma praktinio procedūros taikymo sritis yra pavojingųjų dujų ūkio objektų rizikos analizė. Procedūra leidžia įvertinti tų objektų pavojingumą vertinamai (projektuojamai) konstrukcinei sistemai.

Download Full-text

A Bayesian Approach to Competing Risks Model with Masked Causes of Failure and Incomplete Failure Times

Mathematical Problems in Engineering ◽

10.1155/2020/8248640 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-7

Author(s):

Yosra Yousif ◽

Faiz A. M. Elfaki ◽

Meftah Hrairi ◽

Oyelola A. Adegboye

Keyword(s):

Competing Risks ◽

Bayesian Approach ◽

Survival Data ◽

Failure Time ◽

Production Engineering ◽

Hazard Functions ◽

Interval Censored ◽

Gamma Processes ◽

The Impact ◽

Causes Of Failure

We present a Bayesian approach for analysis of competing risks survival data with masked causes of failure. This approach is often used to assess the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection in production engineering. In this study, Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated with simulated and production engineering applications.

Download Full-text

133: Comparisons of Prostate Cancer Mortality Rates with Changes in Dietary Practices in the United States from 1930 to 2000

The Journal of Urology ◽

10.1016/s0022-5347(18)32400-5 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 175 (4S) ◽

pp. 42-43

Author(s):

Jan L. Colli ◽

Albert Colli

Keyword(s):

Prostate Cancer ◽

United States ◽

Cancer Mortality ◽

The United States ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Dietary Practices ◽

Prostate Cancer Mortality

Download Full-text

Inequalities and Impact of Socioeconomic-Cultural Factors in Suicide Rates Across Italy

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910/a000084 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 32 (4) ◽

pp. 178-185 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Maurizio Pompili ◽

Marco Innamorati ◽

Monica Vichi ◽

Maria Masocco ◽

Nicola Vanacore ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Suicide Rate ◽

Age Groups ◽

Premature Death ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Italian Population ◽

Comprehensive Overview ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Younger Age ◽

Age And Sex

Background: Suicide is a major cause of premature death in Italy and occurs at different rates in the various regions. Aims: The aim of the present study was to provide a comprehensive overview of suicide in the Italian population aged 15 years and older for the years 1980–2006. Methods: Mortality data were extracted from the Italian Mortality Database. Results: Mortality rates for suicide in Italy reached a peak in 1985 and declined thereafter. The different patterns observed by age and sex indicated that the decrease in the suicide rate in Italy was initially the result of declining rates in those aged 45+ while, from 1997 on, the decrease was attributable principally to a reduction in suicide rates among the younger age groups. It was found that socioeconomic factors underlined major differences in the suicide rate across regions. Conclusions: The present study confirmed that suicide is a multifaceted phenomenon that may be determined by an array of factors. Suicide prevention should, therefore, be targeted to identifiable high-risk sociocultural groups in each country.

Download Full-text