scholarly journals Predicting range shifts of the Chinese monal (Lophophorus lhuysii) under climate change: Implications for long-term conservation

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. e01018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Xu ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Xue Zhong ◽  
Biao Yang ◽  
Jindong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Rödder ◽  
Thomas Schmitt ◽  
Patrick Gros ◽  
Werner Ulrich ◽  
Jan Christian Habel

AbstractClimate change impacts biodiversity and is driving range shifts of species and populations across the globe. To understand the effects of climate warming on biota, long-term observations of the occurrence of species and detailed knowledge on their ecology and life-history is crucial. Mountain species particularly suffer under climate warming and often respond to environmental changes by altitudinal range shifts. We assessed long-term distribution trends of mountain butterflies across the eastern Alps and calculated species’ specific annual range shifts based on field observations and species distribution models, counterbalancing the potential drawbacks of both approaches. We also compiled details on the ecology, behaviour and life-history, and the climate niche of each species assessed. We found that the highest altitudinal maxima were observed recently in the majority of cases, while the lowest altitudes of observations were recorded before 1980. Mobile and generalist species with a broad ecological amplitude tended to move uphill more than specialist and sedentary species. As main drivers we identified climatic conditions and topographic variables, such as insolation and solar irradiation. This study provides important evidence for responses of high mountain taxa to rapid climate change. Our study underlines the advantage of combining historical surveys and museum collection data with cutting-edge analyses.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Amber Brooks

<p>The long-term sustainability and security of food sources for an increasing human population will become more challenging as climate change alters growing and harvesting conditions. Significant infrastructure changes could be required to continue to supply food from traditional sources. Fisheries remain the only major protein supply directly harvested from the wild. This likely makes it the most sensitive primary sector to climate change. Overfishing is an additional concern for harvested species. There is a need to anticipate how marine species may respond to climate change to help inform how management might best be prepared for shifting distributions and productivity levels. The most common response of mobile marine species to changes in climate is an alteration of their geographic distributions and/or range shifts. Predicting changes to a species’ range could promote timely development of more sustainable harvest strategies. Additionally, these predictions could reduce potential conflict when different management areas experience increasing or decreasing catches. Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is a helpful approach for predicting the response of key fishery species to climate change scenarios.  The overall aim of this research was to use the maximum entropy method, Maxent, to perform ENM on 10 commercially important fishery species, managed under the Quota management system in Aotearoa (New Zealand). Occurrence data from trawl surveys were used along with climate layers from Bio-ORACLE to estimate the species niche and then predict distributions in four different future climate scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios (RCPS), in both 2050 and 2100. With little consensus over the best settings and way to apply the Maxent method, hundreds of variations were tried for each species, and the best model chosen from trial experimentation.  In general, Maxent performed well, with evaluation metrics for best models showing little omission error and good discriminatory ability. There was, however, considerable variation between the different species responses to the future climate scenarios. Consistent with other studies, species able to tolerate sub-tropical or temperate conditions tended to expand southward, while subantarctic species generally contracted within their preferred environment. The increasing emissions or ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario consistently presented the most extreme difference from modern predictions. Northern regions of prediction, where sub-tropical or temperate species increased in probability of presence, were often highly uncertain due to novel conditions in future environments. Southern regions were usually less uncertain. Surface temperature consistently influenced base models more so than any other covariates considered, with the exception of bathymetry.  Some predictions showed common areas of relative stability, such as hoki and ling on the southern Chatham Rise, potentially indicating future refugia. The preservation of habitats in the putative refugia may be important for long-term fisheries resilience. Furthermore, most species that showed large predicted declines are currently heavily harvested and managed. Overfishing could compound the effects of climate change and put these fisheries at serious risk of collapse. Identification of potential refugial areas could aid strategy adjustments to fishing practice to help preserve stock viability. Additionally, when some species shift, there are areas where new fisheries may emerge.  This study offers a perspective of what future distributions could be like under different climate scenarios. The ENM predicts that the ‘business as usual’ scenario, where ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions continue to rise throughout the century, will have a negative impact on multiple aspects of distribution. However, in a reduced emissions scenario, less extreme range shifts are predicted. This study has provided a predictive approach to how fisheries in Aotearoa might change. The next step is to determine whether there is any evidence for the beginning of these changes and to consider how fisheries might best adapt.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 6567-6578
Author(s):  
Ádám T. Kocsis ◽  
Qianshuo Zhao ◽  
Mark J. Costello ◽  
Wolfgang Kiessling

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Rich spots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesized that rich spots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity rich spots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assessed the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine rich spots. Our analyses confirm the general consensus that global warming will impact almost all rich spots of all three realms and suggest that their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing to other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine rich spots seem to be particularly sensitive to global warming: they have warmed more, have higher climate velocities, and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-rich-spot areas. However, our results also suggest that terrestrial and freshwater rich spots will be somewhat less affected than other areas. These findings emphasize the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 29-46
Author(s):  
Gokarna Jung Thapa ◽  
Eric Wikramanayake

Climate change will affect forest vegetation communities, and field surveys have already indicated measurable distribution range shifts in some tree species. As forests play an important role in stabilizing steep slopes and provide vital ecological goods and services, the Government of Nepal has been encouraging forest restoration and sustainable management. However, reforestation and afforestation programs should consider the long term survivorship of the trees selected for reforestation to build climate adaptation and resilience. Thus, the choice of species should include species that would be expected to grow within the elevation zone or in the particular habitat under future climate change scenarios. In this analysis, we have assessed the response of 12 important tree species to climate change using the IPCC A2A GHG scenario with GCM-based climate envelopes to provide guidelines and recommendations for climate change-integrated forest restoration and management in the Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL). The results indicate that several species could exhibit range shifts due to climate change, with an overall trend for species in the lower elevations to move northwards or further up the slopes within the current area of distributions. Analyses such as this, though not perfect, can help to make critical and informed decisions to support long-term forest restoration programs.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ádám T. Kocsis ◽  
Qianshuo Zhao ◽  
Mark J. Costello ◽  
Wolfgang Kiessling

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Richspots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesised that richspots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity richspots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assess the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine richspots. The results suggest that although terrestrial and freshwater richspots have been and will be somewhat less affected than other areas, they are not excluded from the impacts of global warming. Their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing as other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine richspots have warmed even more, have higher climate velocities and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-richspot areas. Our findings emphasise the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Amber Brooks

<p>The long-term sustainability and security of food sources for an increasing human population will become more challenging as climate change alters growing and harvesting conditions. Significant infrastructure changes could be required to continue to supply food from traditional sources. Fisheries remain the only major protein supply directly harvested from the wild. This likely makes it the most sensitive primary sector to climate change. Overfishing is an additional concern for harvested species. There is a need to anticipate how marine species may respond to climate change to help inform how management might best be prepared for shifting distributions and productivity levels. The most common response of mobile marine species to changes in climate is an alteration of their geographic distributions and/or range shifts. Predicting changes to a species’ range could promote timely development of more sustainable harvest strategies. Additionally, these predictions could reduce potential conflict when different management areas experience increasing or decreasing catches. Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is a helpful approach for predicting the response of key fishery species to climate change scenarios.  The overall aim of this research was to use the maximum entropy method, Maxent, to perform ENM on 10 commercially important fishery species, managed under the Quota management system in Aotearoa (New Zealand). Occurrence data from trawl surveys were used along with climate layers from Bio-ORACLE to estimate the species niche and then predict distributions in four different future climate scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios (RCPS), in both 2050 and 2100. With little consensus over the best settings and way to apply the Maxent method, hundreds of variations were tried for each species, and the best model chosen from trial experimentation.  In general, Maxent performed well, with evaluation metrics for best models showing little omission error and good discriminatory ability. There was, however, considerable variation between the different species responses to the future climate scenarios. Consistent with other studies, species able to tolerate sub-tropical or temperate conditions tended to expand southward, while subantarctic species generally contracted within their preferred environment. The increasing emissions or ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario consistently presented the most extreme difference from modern predictions. Northern regions of prediction, where sub-tropical or temperate species increased in probability of presence, were often highly uncertain due to novel conditions in future environments. Southern regions were usually less uncertain. Surface temperature consistently influenced base models more so than any other covariates considered, with the exception of bathymetry.  Some predictions showed common areas of relative stability, such as hoki and ling on the southern Chatham Rise, potentially indicating future refugia. The preservation of habitats in the putative refugia may be important for long-term fisheries resilience. Furthermore, most species that showed large predicted declines are currently heavily harvested and managed. Overfishing could compound the effects of climate change and put these fisheries at serious risk of collapse. Identification of potential refugial areas could aid strategy adjustments to fishing practice to help preserve stock viability. Additionally, when some species shift, there are areas where new fisheries may emerge.  This study offers a perspective of what future distributions could be like under different climate scenarios. The ENM predicts that the ‘business as usual’ scenario, where ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions continue to rise throughout the century, will have a negative impact on multiple aspects of distribution. However, in a reduced emissions scenario, less extreme range shifts are predicted. This study has provided a predictive approach to how fisheries in Aotearoa might change. The next step is to determine whether there is any evidence for the beginning of these changes and to consider how fisheries might best adapt.</p>


Author(s):  
Maria Hällfors ◽  
Juha Pöyry ◽  
Janne Heliölä ◽  
Ilmari Kohonen ◽  
Mikko Kuussaari ◽  
...  

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (47%) -used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends was observed for the minority of species (13%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for Boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.


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