scholarly journals Evaluation of multiple management objectives for Northeast Atlantic flatfish stocks: sustainability vs. stability of yield

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (6) ◽  
pp. 1104-1117 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.T. Kell ◽  
M.A. Pastoors ◽  
R.D. Scott ◽  
M.T. Smith ◽  
F.A. Van Beek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Actual System ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Pseudo Data

Abstract This paper describes a simulation study that evaluated the ICES scientific advisory process used to recommend total allowable catches (TACs) for flatfish stocks. Particular emphasis is given to examining the effects on stock biomass, yield and stability of constraining interannual variation in TACs. A “management strategy evaluation” approach is used where an operating model is used to represent the underlying reality, and pseudo data are generated for use within a management procedure. The management procedure comprises a stock assessment that uses data to estimate parameters of interest and a decision rule to derive TAC recommendations for the following year. Bounds on TAC of between 20% and 40% have little effect on yields or stability, while a 10% bound on TAC can affect the ability to achieve management targets and result in low-frequency cycling in the stock. In the short term, performance is highly dependent on current stock status but bounds have less effect if the stock is close to equilibrium for a target fishing mortality (F). In addition, it was shown that current ICES biomass and fishing mortality reference points are not always consistent, and several are clearly inappropriate. Importantly, including realistic sources and levels of uncertainty can result in far from optimal management outcomes based on the current procedures. Results also conflicted with expert opinion, in suggesting that management based on a fixed F regime could result in relatively stable yields despite fluctuations in year-class strength and that the management feedback process itself is implicated in causing fluctuations in the system due to significant time-lags in this process. We therefore emphasize that providing more precise population estimates or developing harvest control rules alone will not necessarily help in achieving management objectives, rather management procedures that are robust to uncertainty and tuned to meet management objectives need to be developed. Operating models in these simulations were constrained to be based on existing ICES methods and perceptions of stock dynamics, but we recommend that, in future, operating models that represent the best available understanding of the actual system dynamics be used to evaluate models and rules considered for application.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the implicit management procedure used for some ICES roundfish stocks

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 750-759 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.T. Kell ◽  
G.M. Pilling ◽  
G.P. Kirkwood ◽  
M. Pastoors ◽  
B. Mesnil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reference Points ◽  
Actual System ◽  
Stock Status ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Strategy Evaluation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Underlying Reality ◽  
Pseudo Data

Abstract This paper describes a simulation study that evaluated the performance of the scientific advisory process used by ICES to recommend total allowable catches (TACs) for roundfish stocks. A “management strategy evaluation” approach is used, involving development of an operating model to represent the underlying reality, and an observation model to generate pseudo data that are then used within a management procedure. The management procedure comprises an assessment that uses data to estimate parameters of interest and a decision rule to derive TAC recommendations for the following year. There are two important results: including realistic sources and levels of uncertainty can result in far from optimal management outcomes based on the current procedures; and current ICES biomass and fishing mortality reference points are not always consistent, and several are clearly inappropriate. This is because the types of projection used by ICES do not incorporate important lags between assessing stock status and implementing management measures, and they also ignore important sources of uncertainty about the actual dynamics, as well as our ability to collect data and implement management regulations (i.e. model, measurement, and implementation error, respectively). The simulation approach also showed that better management is not necessarily going to be achieved by improving the assessment, because even with a perfect assessment (where the simulated working group knew stock status perfectly), stocks may crash at fishing levels that standard stochastic projections would suggest were safe. It is proposed that, in future, operating models that represent the best available understanding of the actual system dynamics be used to evaluate models and rules considered for application. These operating models should capture the plausible range of characteristics of the underlying dynamics, but not necessarily model their full complexity. In general, they will be more complex than those used by assessment working groups, so developing management procedures that are robust to a broad range of uncertainty. However, the models and rules used as part of the management procedure should be simpler than those used at present.

scholarly journals Stock assessment methods for sustainable fisheries

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven X. Cadrin ◽  
Mark Dickey-Collas
Keyword(s):  
Fishery Management ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Sustainable Fisheries ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Pseudo Data

Abstract This special volume of the ICES Journal compiles contributions from the World Conference on Stock Assessment Methods for Sustainable Fisheries (July 2013, Boston, USA). The conference was the product of a strategic initiative on stock assessment methods that engaged many national and regional fishery management organizations to assure that scientists can apply the most appropriate methods when developing management advice. An inclusive workshop was designed to evaluate the performance of a variety of model categories by applying multiple models to selected case study data as well as simulated pseudo-data that had realistic measurement error. All model applications had difficulties in recovering the simulated stock and fishing mortality trends, particularly at the end of the assessment time series, when they are most important for informing fishery management. This general result suggests that the next steps in evaluating the performance of stock assessment methods should include stock status relative to sustainable reference points, catch advice, multi-model consideration, and alternative management procedures. Recognition of the limitations of conventional stock assessment methods should promote further development of data-limited approaches, methods with time-varying parameters, or spatial complexity, and a more revolutionary shift towards the application of multispecies and ecosystem models. The contributions in this volume address methodological themes that are expected to improve the scientific basis of fishery management. Furthermore, the limitations of stock assessment methods and associated uncertainty should be more extensively considered in fishery management strategies and tactical decisions. Recommendations developed during the conference called for the establishment of a global initiative to synthesize regional advances, form guidance on best practices, promote strategic investments, and highlight research needs for fish stock assessments.

scholarly journals Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua)

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 1483-1491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence T. Kell ◽  
Graham M. Pilling ◽  
Carl M. O'Brien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Management Procedures

Abstract Robustness of both short-term stock biomass recovery and longer-term sustainable management strategies to different plausible climatic change scenarios were evaluated for North Sea cod (Gadus morhua), where climate was assumed to impact growth and recruitment. In the short term, climate change had little effect on stock recovery, which depends instead upon reducing fishing effort to allow existing year classes to survive to maturity. In the longer term, climate change has greater effects on stock status, but higher yields and biomass can be expected if fishing mortality is reduced. Incorporating environmental covariates in stock assessment predictions will not achieve sustainable resource use. The implications of climate change for biological reference points depend upon the mechanism through which temperature acts on recruitment, i.e. on juvenile survival or carrying capacity. It is not possible to distinguish between these processes with stock assessment data sets alone. However, this study indicates that reference points based on fishing mortality appear more robust to uncertainty than those based on biomass. Ideally, simpler management procedures are required that meet pre-agreed management objectives and are robust to uncertainty about the true dynamics.

scholarly journals Stock assessment and projections incorporating discard estimates in some years: an application to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1185-1197 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Fernández ◽  
S. Cerviño ◽  
N. Pérez ◽  
E. Jardim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Marine Science ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Change Over Time ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Fernández, C., Cerviño, S., Pérez, N., and Jardim, E. 2010. Stock assessment and projections incorporating discard estimates in some years: an application to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1185–1197. A Bayesian age-structured stock assessment model is developed to take into account available information on discards and to handle gaps in the time-series of discard estimates. The model incorporates mortality attributable to discarding, and appropriate assumptions about how this mortality may change over time are made. The result is a stock assessment that accounts for information on discards while, at the same time, producing a complete time-series of discard estimates. The method is applied to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa, for which the available data indicate that some 60% of the individuals caught are discarded. The stock is fished by Spain and Portugal, and for each country, there are discard estimates for recent years only. Moreover, the years for which Portuguese estimates are available are only a subset of those with Spanish estimates. Two runs of the model are performed; one assuming zero discards and another incorporating discards. When discards are incorporated, estimated recruitment and fishing mortality for young (discarded) ages increase, resulting in lower values of the biological reference points Fmax and F0.1 and, generally, more optimistic future stock trajectories under F-reduction scenarios.

Lessons learned from data-limited evaluations of data-rich reef fish species in the Gulf of Mexico: implications for providing fisheries management advice for data-poor stocks

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (9) ◽  
pp. 1624-1639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Skyler R. Sagarese ◽  
William J. Harford ◽  
John F. Walter ◽  
Meaghan D. Bryan ◽  
J. Jeffery Isely ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Reef Fish ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Reef Fish Species

Specifying annual catch limits for artisanal fisheries, low economic value stocks, or bycatch species is problematic due to data limitations. Many empirical management procedures (MPs) have been developed that provide catch advice based on achieving a stable catch or a historical target (i.e., instead of maximum sustainable yield). However, a thorough comparison of derived yield streams between empirical MPs and stock assessment models has not been explored. We first evaluate trade-offs in conservation and yield metrics for data-limited approaches through management strategy evaluation (MSE) of seven data-rich reef fish species in the Gulf of Mexico. We then apply data-limited approaches for each species and compare how catch advice differs from current age-based assessment models. MSEs identified empirical MPs (e.g., using relative abundance) as a compromise between data requirements and the ability to consistently achieve management objectives (e.g., prevent overfishing). Catch advice differed greatly among data-limited approaches and current assessments, likely due to data inputs and assumptions. Adaptive MPs become clearly viable options that can achieve management objectives while incorporating auxiliary data beyond catch-only approaches.

Detecting mortality variation to enhance forage fish population assessments

2018 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nis S Jacobsen ◽  
James T Thorson ◽  
Timothy E Essington
Keyword(s):  
Test Performance ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Forage Fish ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Catch Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Contemporary stock assessment models used by fisheries management often assume that natural mortality rates are constant over time for exploited fish stocks. This assumption results in biased estimates of fishing mortality and reference points when mortality changes over time. However, it is difficult to distinguish changes in natural mortality from changes in fishing mortality, selectivity, and recruitment. Because changes in size structure can be indicate changes in mortality, one potential solution is to use population size-structure and fisheries catch data to simultaneously estimate time-varying natural and fishing mortality. Here we test that hypothesis, using a simulation experiment to test performance for four alternative estimation models that estimate natural and fishing mortality from size structure and catch data. We show that it is possible to estimate time-varying natural mortality in a size-based model, even when fishing mortality, recruitment, and selectivity are changing over time. Finally, we apply the model to North Sea sprat, and show that estimates of recruitment and natural mortality are similar to estimates from an alternative multispecies population model fitted to additional data sources. We recommend exploring potential trends in natural mortality in forage fish assessments using tools such as the one presented here.

scholarly journals Time-varying natural mortality in fisheries stock assessment models: identifying a default approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelli F. Johnson ◽  
Cole C. Monnahan ◽  
Carey R. McGilliard ◽  
Katyana A. Vert-pre ◽  
Sean C. Anderson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Total Allowable Catch ◽  
Robust Approach ◽  
Structured Population Models ◽  
Trade Offs

Abstract A typical assumption used in most fishery stock assessments is that natural mortality (M) is constant across time and age. However, M is rarely constant in reality as a result of the combined impacts of exploitation history, predation, environmental factors, and physiological trade-offs. Misspecification or poor estimation of M can lead to bias in quantities estimated using stock assessment methods, potentially resulting in biased estimates of fishery reference points and catch limits, with the magnitude of bias being influenced by life history and trends in fishing mortality. Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the ability of statistical age-structured population models to estimate spawning-stock biomass, fishing mortality, and total allowable catch when the true M was age-invariant, but time-varying. Configurations of the stock assessment method, implemented in Stock Synthesis, included a single age- and time-invariant M parameter, specified at one of the three levels (high, medium, and low) or an estimated M. The min–max (i.e. most robust) approach to specifying M when it is thought to vary across time was to estimate M. The least robust approach for most scenarios examined was to fix M at a high value, suggesting that the consequences of misspecifying M are asymmetric.

Length-based risk analysis for assessing sustainability of data-limited tropical reef fisheries

2018 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerald S Ault ◽  
Steven G Smith ◽  
James A Bohnsack ◽  
Jiangang Luo ◽  
Molly H Stevens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Florida Keys ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Reproductive Biomass

AbstractThis study extended a “data-limited” length-based stock assessment approach to a risk analysis context. The estimation-simulation method used length frequencies as the principal data in lieu of catch and effort. Key developments were to: (i) incorporate probabilistic mortality and growth dynamics into a numerical cohort model; (ii) employ a precautionary approach for setting sustainability reference points for fishing mortality (FREF) and stock reproductive biomass (BREF); (iii) define sustainability risks in terms of probability distributions; and, (iv) evaluate exploitation status in terms of expected length frequencies, the main “observable” population metric. This refined length-based approach was applied to six principal exploited reef fish species in the Florida Keys region, consisting of three groupers (black grouper, red grouper, and coney), two snappers (mutton snapper and yellowtail snapper), and one wrasse (hogfish). The estimated sustainability risks for coney were low (<35%) in terms of benchmarks for fishing mortality rate and stock reproductive biomass. The other five species had estimated sustainability risks of greater than 95% for both benchmarks. The data-limited risk analysis methodology allowed for a fairly comprehensive probabilistic evaluation of sustainability status from species and community perspectives, and also a frame of reference for exploring management options balancing sustainability risks and fishery production.

scholarly journals Developing management procedures that are robust to uncertainty: lessons from the International Whaling Commission

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 603-612 ◽  
Author(s):  
André E. Punt ◽  
Greg P. Donovan
Keyword(s):  
Control Laws ◽  
International Whaling Commission ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Data Collection And Analysis ◽  
Process Error ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Stock Assessments ◽  
Management Advice ◽  
Aboriginal Subsistence

Abstract Punt, A. E. and Donovan, G. P. 2007. Developing management procedures that are robust to uncertainty: lessons from the International Whaling Commission. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 603–612. Traditionally, fisheries management advice has been based on stock assessments that considered merely the “best” set of assumptions while uncertainty arising only from observation and process error was quantified, if considered at all. Unfortunately, uncertainty attributable to lack of understanding of the true underlying system and to ineffective implementation may dominate the sources of error that must be accounted for if management is to be successful. The management procedure approach is advocated as the appropriate way to develop management advice for renewable resources. This approach, pioneered by the International Whaling Commission (IWC) Scientific Committee, takes politically agreed management objectives and incorporates all scientific aspects of management including data collection and analysis, development of robust harvest control laws or effort regulations, and monitoring. A primary feature is that uncertainty (including that arising from sources conventionally ignored) is taken into account explicitly through population simulations for a variety of scenarios. The nature of the management procedures developed for commercial and aboriginal subsistence whaling and the processes by which they have been developed is highlighted. We also identify lessons that have been learned from two decades of IWC experience and suggest how these can be applied to other fishery situations.

Setting biological reference points for sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus) allowing for the spatial distribution of productivity and fishing effort

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 650-667 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Smith ◽  
Jessica A. Sameoto ◽  
Craig J. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Spatial Model ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Placopecten Magellanicus ◽  
Fishing Vessels

Management for the major sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fisheries in Canada is based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) biomass and fishing mortality reference points applied to the whole stock, under the assumption that fishing mortality is uniformly distributed in space. However, scallop fishing vessels concentrate fishing in areas that consistently exhibit high densities resulting in a nonuniform spatial distribution of fishing effort. This study applies a spatial model for fishing effort derived from satellite vessel monitoring system data, scallop habitat suitability maps, and relative scallop density from a spatial stock assessment model to evaluate precautionary approach reference points in support of sustainable management. Target harvest rates were evaluated in terms of MSY for the higher habitat suitability areas. The results indicated that although MSY for the spatial model were similar to those when assuming a uniform distribution of effort, the biomass and catch rates over all areas were higher. The spatial model predicted that the MSY would be taken with less fishing effort, potentially lessening the benthic impacts from the scallop fishery.

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