scholarly journals Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua)

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 1483-1491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence T. Kell ◽  
Graham M. Pilling ◽  
Carl M. O'Brien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Management Procedures

Abstract Robustness of both short-term stock biomass recovery and longer-term sustainable management strategies to different plausible climatic change scenarios were evaluated for North Sea cod (Gadus morhua), where climate was assumed to impact growth and recruitment. In the short term, climate change had little effect on stock recovery, which depends instead upon reducing fishing effort to allow existing year classes to survive to maturity. In the longer term, climate change has greater effects on stock status, but higher yields and biomass can be expected if fishing mortality is reduced. Incorporating environmental covariates in stock assessment predictions will not achieve sustainable resource use. The implications of climate change for biological reference points depend upon the mechanism through which temperature acts on recruitment, i.e. on juvenile survival or carrying capacity. It is not possible to distinguish between these processes with stock assessment data sets alone. However, this study indicates that reference points based on fishing mortality appear more robust to uncertainty than those based on biomass. Ideally, simpler management procedures are required that meet pre-agreed management objectives and are robust to uncertainty about the true dynamics.

scholarly journals North Sea cod recovery?

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 961-968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Horwood ◽  
Carl O'Brien ◽  
Chris Darby
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Commercial Fish ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Stock Assessments ◽  
Low Levels

AbstractRecovery of depleted marine, demersal, commercial fish stocks has proved elusive worldwide. As yet, just a few shared or highly migratory stocks have been restored. Here we review the current status of the depleted North Sea cod (Gadus morhua), the scientific advice to managers, and the recovery measures in place. Monitoring the progress of North Sea cod recovery is now hampered by considerable uncertainties in stock assessments associated with low stock size, variable survey indices, and inaccurate catch data. In addition, questions arise as to whether recovery targets are achievable in a changing natural environment. We show that current targets are achievable with fishing mortality rates that are compatible with international agreements even if recruitment levels remain at the current low levels. Furthermore, recent collations of data on international fishing effort have allowed estimation of the cuts in fishing mortality achieved by restrictions on North Sea effort. By the beginning of 2005, these restrictions are estimated to have reduced fishing mortality rates by about 37%. This is insufficient to ensure recovery of North Sea cod within the next decade.

Setting biological reference points for sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus) allowing for the spatial distribution of productivity and fishing effort

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 650-667 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Smith ◽  
Jessica A. Sameoto ◽  
Craig J. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Spatial Model ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Placopecten Magellanicus ◽  
Fishing Vessels

Management for the major sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fisheries in Canada is based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) biomass and fishing mortality reference points applied to the whole stock, under the assumption that fishing mortality is uniformly distributed in space. However, scallop fishing vessels concentrate fishing in areas that consistently exhibit high densities resulting in a nonuniform spatial distribution of fishing effort. This study applies a spatial model for fishing effort derived from satellite vessel monitoring system data, scallop habitat suitability maps, and relative scallop density from a spatial stock assessment model to evaluate precautionary approach reference points in support of sustainable management. Target harvest rates were evaluated in terms of MSY for the higher habitat suitability areas. The results indicated that although MSY for the spatial model were similar to those when assuming a uniform distribution of effort, the biomass and catch rates over all areas were higher. The spatial model predicted that the MSY would be taken with less fishing effort, potentially lessening the benthic impacts from the scallop fishery.

scholarly journals Precisely wrong or vaguely right: simulations of noisy discard data and trends in fishing effort being included in the stock assessment of North Sea plaice

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (9) ◽  
pp. 1641-1649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Dickey-Collas ◽  
Martin A. Pastoors ◽  
Olvin A. van Keeken
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Recent Trend ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Clear Trend ◽  
The Past ◽  
Stock Assessments

Abstract Dickey-Collas, M., Pastoors, M. A, and van Keeken, O. A. 2007. Precisely wrong or vaguely right: simulations of noisy discard data and trends in fishing effort being included in the stock assessment of North Sea plaice. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 000–000. ICES stock assessments of North Sea plaice are routinely carried out with eXtended Survivors Analysis (XSA), based on landings and survey data. Recently, the assessments included data on discarded young fish, sampled with high variance. Fishing effort has been declining since the mid-1990s, so conditioning the estimated fishing mortality (F) on the recent past could introduce bias into the perceived stock size. Simulated populations with North Sea plaice-like characteristics are used to explore the dependence of the perceived stock dynamics on the inclusion of discards data at different sampling noise, using the same methods and XSA settings as ICES. The sensitivities of the results were tested against different trends in fishing effort and recruitment, and different scenarios for “shrinkage” (i.e. the way in which the past is used to estimate the most recent fishing mortality). Within the bounds of the simulation assumptions, the perception of population trends from an XSA stock assessment can be biased when there are trends in fishing effort: decreasing effort leads to underestimating SSB and overestimating F. When discards are not included, bias in SSB is greatest when effort decreases, and bias in F is greatest when effort increases. Bias in SSB and F were removed by including discard data, but at substantial loss of precision. If effort shows a clear trend and discards are substantial and estimated noisily, the recent trend in the target population may be hard to track with an XSA-type assessment methodology.

scholarly journals Evaluation of multiple management objectives for Northeast Atlantic flatfish stocks: sustainability vs. stability of yield

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (6) ◽  
pp. 1104-1117 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.T. Kell ◽  
M.A. Pastoors ◽  
R.D. Scott ◽  
M.T. Smith ◽  
F.A. Van Beek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Actual System ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Pseudo Data

Abstract This paper describes a simulation study that evaluated the ICES scientific advisory process used to recommend total allowable catches (TACs) for flatfish stocks. Particular emphasis is given to examining the effects on stock biomass, yield and stability of constraining interannual variation in TACs. A “management strategy evaluation” approach is used where an operating model is used to represent the underlying reality, and pseudo data are generated for use within a management procedure. The management procedure comprises a stock assessment that uses data to estimate parameters of interest and a decision rule to derive TAC recommendations for the following year. Bounds on TAC of between 20% and 40% have little effect on yields or stability, while a 10% bound on TAC can affect the ability to achieve management targets and result in low-frequency cycling in the stock. In the short term, performance is highly dependent on current stock status but bounds have less effect if the stock is close to equilibrium for a target fishing mortality (F). In addition, it was shown that current ICES biomass and fishing mortality reference points are not always consistent, and several are clearly inappropriate. Importantly, including realistic sources and levels of uncertainty can result in far from optimal management outcomes based on the current procedures. Results also conflicted with expert opinion, in suggesting that management based on a fixed F regime could result in relatively stable yields despite fluctuations in year-class strength and that the management feedback process itself is implicated in causing fluctuations in the system due to significant time-lags in this process. We therefore emphasize that providing more precise population estimates or developing harvest control rules alone will not necessarily help in achieving management objectives, rather management procedures that are robust to uncertainty and tuned to meet management objectives need to be developed. Operating models in these simulations were constrained to be based on existing ICES methods and perceptions of stock dynamics, but we recommend that, in future, operating models that represent the best available understanding of the actual system dynamics be used to evaluate models and rules considered for application.

scholarly journals Stock assessment methods for sustainable fisheries

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven X. Cadrin ◽  
Mark Dickey-Collas
Keyword(s):  
Fishery Management ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Sustainable Fisheries ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Pseudo Data

Abstract This special volume of the ICES Journal compiles contributions from the World Conference on Stock Assessment Methods for Sustainable Fisheries (July 2013, Boston, USA). The conference was the product of a strategic initiative on stock assessment methods that engaged many national and regional fishery management organizations to assure that scientists can apply the most appropriate methods when developing management advice. An inclusive workshop was designed to evaluate the performance of a variety of model categories by applying multiple models to selected case study data as well as simulated pseudo-data that had realistic measurement error. All model applications had difficulties in recovering the simulated stock and fishing mortality trends, particularly at the end of the assessment time series, when they are most important for informing fishery management. This general result suggests that the next steps in evaluating the performance of stock assessment methods should include stock status relative to sustainable reference points, catch advice, multi-model consideration, and alternative management procedures. Recognition of the limitations of conventional stock assessment methods should promote further development of data-limited approaches, methods with time-varying parameters, or spatial complexity, and a more revolutionary shift towards the application of multispecies and ecosystem models. The contributions in this volume address methodological themes that are expected to improve the scientific basis of fishery management. Furthermore, the limitations of stock assessment methods and associated uncertainty should be more extensively considered in fishery management strategies and tactical decisions. Recommendations developed during the conference called for the establishment of a global initiative to synthesize regional advances, form guidance on best practices, promote strategic investments, and highlight research needs for fish stock assessments.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the exploitation of Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.) stock in 1976–1997

2003 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 1114-1122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Radtke
Keyword(s):  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Safe Level ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spawning Biomass ◽  
Eastern Baltic ◽  
Baltic Cod

Abstract Big changes occurred in the Eastern Baltic cod biomass and catches in the 1976–1997 period. At present, the Eastern Baltic cod stock spawning biomass (SSB) and catches are approximately five times lower than their highest ever recorded levels observed in the middle of the 1980s. The reasons for the stock decline, namely low recruitment and high fishing mortality, are widely known and well described in the literature. Throughout the whole period, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) made scientific recommendations regarding the exploitation level of the cod stock. The ICES presented and analysed different management strategies based on fishing mortalities which corresponded to biological reference points (BRP) and also recommended total allowable catches (TACs) for cod, taking into account the sustainability of cod resources. In fact, in most years the TAC established by the International Baltic Sea Fisheries Commission (IBSFC) and cod catches (observed exploitation) exceeded the ICES-recommended TAC and thus their scientific advice was neither taken into account by the IBSFC nor by fishermen. This paper evaluates: (1) the would-be state of the Eastern Baltic cod stock if it had been exploited according to ICES-recommended TAC levels, as compared with observed stock exploitation; and (2) the potential effects of management using fishing mortality rates which correspond to BRP on SSB estimates and catch levels, as compared with observed stock exploitation. It is concluded that if ICES advice had been followed, the cumulative cod catches in the 1976–1997 period would have been the same as those observed, but the stock biomass would have been much higher and at a safe level (SSB above 240 000 t). Furthermore, from the comparative analysis of different management strategies based on BRP and the observed strategy, it appears that other management strategies could have been applied which would have produced a higher biomass and greater cumulative catch numbers than those observed.

The roles of biological reference points and operational control points in management procedures for the sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) fishery in British Columbia, Canada

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 318-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
SEAN P. COX ◽  
ALLEN R. KRONLUND ◽  
ASHLEEN J. BENSON
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Control Points ◽  
Operational Control ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Anoplopoma Fimbria ◽  
Control Rules ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Harvest Control Rules

SUMMARYBiological reference points (BRPs) in fisheries policy are typically sensitive to stock assessment model assumptions, thus increasing uncertainty in harvest decision-making and potentially blocking adoption of precautionary harvest policies. A collaborative management strategy evaluation approach and closed-loop simulation modelling was used to evaluate expected fishery economic and conservation performance of the sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) fishery in British Columbia (Canada), in the presence of uncertainty about BRPs. Comparison of models derived using two precautionary harvest control rules, which each complied with biological conservation objectives and short-term economic objectives given by industry, suggested that both rules were likely to avert biomass decline below limit BRPs, even when stock biomass and production were persistently overestimated by stock assessment models. The slightly less conservative, industry-preferred harvest control rule also avoided short-term economic losses of c. CAN$ 2.7–10 million annually, or 10–50% of current landed value. Distinguishing between the role of BRPs in setting fishery conservation objectives and operational control points that define harvest control rules improved the flexibility of the sablefish management system, and has led to adoption of precautionary management procedures.

scholarly journals Evolutionary impact assessment of the North Sea plaice fishery

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (7) ◽  
pp. 1126-1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian M. Mollet ◽  
Jan Jaap Poos ◽  
Ulf Dieckmann ◽  
Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Maximum Yield ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Evolutionary Response ◽  
The Impact

There is growing evidence that fishing causes evolution in life-history traits that affect the productivity of fish stocks. Here we explore the impact of fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) on the productivity of North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) using an ecogenetic, individual-based model by comparing management scenarios with and without an evolutionary response. Under status-quo management, plaice evolve towards smaller size at age, earlier maturation, and higher reproductive investment. Current reference points of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and corresponding fishing-mortality rate (FMSY) that ignore FIE will decrease and cannot be considered sustainable. The nature and extent of the change through FIE depend on fishing effort and selectivity. The adverse evolutionary effects can be reduced — and even reversed — by implementing a dome-shaped exploitation pattern protecting the large fish. The evolutionarily sustainable maximum yield can be obtained by combining such a dome-shaped exploitation pattern with a reduction in fishing mortality and an increase in mesh size; it is similar to the MSY that would apply if life-history traits were static. Fisheries managers will need to trade off the short-term loss in yield associated with evolutionarily informed management with the long-term loss in yield FIE causes under evolutionarily uninformed management.

scholarly journals Stock assessment and projections incorporating discard estimates in some years: an application to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1185-1197 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Fernández ◽  
S. Cerviño ◽  
N. Pérez ◽  
E. Jardim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Marine Science ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Change Over Time ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Fernández, C., Cerviño, S., Pérez, N., and Jardim, E. 2010. Stock assessment and projections incorporating discard estimates in some years: an application to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1185–1197. A Bayesian age-structured stock assessment model is developed to take into account available information on discards and to handle gaps in the time-series of discard estimates. The model incorporates mortality attributable to discarding, and appropriate assumptions about how this mortality may change over time are made. The result is a stock assessment that accounts for information on discards while, at the same time, producing a complete time-series of discard estimates. The method is applied to the hake stock in ICES Divisions VIIIc and IXa, for which the available data indicate that some 60% of the individuals caught are discarded. The stock is fished by Spain and Portugal, and for each country, there are discard estimates for recent years only. Moreover, the years for which Portuguese estimates are available are only a subset of those with Spanish estimates. Two runs of the model are performed; one assuming zero discards and another incorporating discards. When discards are incorporated, estimated recruitment and fishing mortality for young (discarded) ages increase, resulting in lower values of the biological reference points Fmax and F0.1 and, generally, more optimistic future stock trajectories under F-reduction scenarios.

Detecting mortality variation to enhance forage fish population assessments

2018 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nis S Jacobsen ◽  
James T Thorson ◽  
Timothy E Essington
Keyword(s):  
Test Performance ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Forage Fish ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Catch Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Contemporary stock assessment models used by fisheries management often assume that natural mortality rates are constant over time for exploited fish stocks. This assumption results in biased estimates of fishing mortality and reference points when mortality changes over time. However, it is difficult to distinguish changes in natural mortality from changes in fishing mortality, selectivity, and recruitment. Because changes in size structure can be indicate changes in mortality, one potential solution is to use population size-structure and fisheries catch data to simultaneously estimate time-varying natural and fishing mortality. Here we test that hypothesis, using a simulation experiment to test performance for four alternative estimation models that estimate natural and fishing mortality from size structure and catch data. We show that it is possible to estimate time-varying natural mortality in a size-based model, even when fishing mortality, recruitment, and selectivity are changing over time. Finally, we apply the model to North Sea sprat, and show that estimates of recruitment and natural mortality are similar to estimates from an alternative multispecies population model fitted to additional data sources. We recommend exploring potential trends in natural mortality in forage fish assessments using tools such as the one presented here.

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