scholarly journals Stock assessment methods for sustainable fisheries

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven X. Cadrin ◽  
Mark Dickey-Collas
Keyword(s):  
Fishery Management ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Sustainable Fisheries ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Pseudo Data

Abstract This special volume of the ICES Journal compiles contributions from the World Conference on Stock Assessment Methods for Sustainable Fisheries (July 2013, Boston, USA). The conference was the product of a strategic initiative on stock assessment methods that engaged many national and regional fishery management organizations to assure that scientists can apply the most appropriate methods when developing management advice. An inclusive workshop was designed to evaluate the performance of a variety of model categories by applying multiple models to selected case study data as well as simulated pseudo-data that had realistic measurement error. All model applications had difficulties in recovering the simulated stock and fishing mortality trends, particularly at the end of the assessment time series, when they are most important for informing fishery management. This general result suggests that the next steps in evaluating the performance of stock assessment methods should include stock status relative to sustainable reference points, catch advice, multi-model consideration, and alternative management procedures. Recognition of the limitations of conventional stock assessment methods should promote further development of data-limited approaches, methods with time-varying parameters, or spatial complexity, and a more revolutionary shift towards the application of multispecies and ecosystem models. The contributions in this volume address methodological themes that are expected to improve the scientific basis of fishery management. Furthermore, the limitations of stock assessment methods and associated uncertainty should be more extensively considered in fishery management strategies and tactical decisions. Recommendations developed during the conference called for the establishment of a global initiative to synthesize regional advances, form guidance on best practices, promote strategic investments, and highlight research needs for fish stock assessments.

scholarly journals Designing tools to evaluate fishery management strategies: can the scientific community deliver?

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (6) ◽  
pp. 1077-1084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon T. Schnute ◽  
Mark N. Maunder ◽  
James N. Ianelli
Keyword(s):  
Programming Languages ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Fishery Management ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Academic Disciplines ◽  
Strategy Evaluation ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Human Skills ◽  
Testing Management

Abstract Schnute, J. T., Maunder, M. N., and Ianelli, J. N. 2007. Designing tools to evaluate fishery management strategies: can the scientific community deliver? – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 1077–1084. Techniques for quantitative fishery management have evolved rapidly during a period when computers, programming languages, and computational algorithms have also changed dramatically. Despite these advances, many stock assessment methods remain untested. A process of management strategy evaluation (MSE) could potentially rectify this problem, but it would require a framework in which to conduct systematic tests. We survey the tools currently used for stock assessments and discuss the development of new standards for testing management procedures. A successful project would depend on human skills scattered among various nations, organizations, and academic disciplines. Analogies from civil engineering illustrate the discipline and collaboration required for an effective outcome. If the world community of fishery scientists could design, build, and support such a project, it would revolutionize the theory, teaching, and practice of scientific fishery management.

scholarly journals Evaluation of multiple management objectives for Northeast Atlantic flatfish stocks: sustainability vs. stability of yield

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (6) ◽  
pp. 1104-1117 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.T. Kell ◽  
M.A. Pastoors ◽  
R.D. Scott ◽  
M.T. Smith ◽  
F.A. Van Beek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Actual System ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Pseudo Data

Abstract This paper describes a simulation study that evaluated the ICES scientific advisory process used to recommend total allowable catches (TACs) for flatfish stocks. Particular emphasis is given to examining the effects on stock biomass, yield and stability of constraining interannual variation in TACs. A “management strategy evaluation” approach is used where an operating model is used to represent the underlying reality, and pseudo data are generated for use within a management procedure. The management procedure comprises a stock assessment that uses data to estimate parameters of interest and a decision rule to derive TAC recommendations for the following year. Bounds on TAC of between 20% and 40% have little effect on yields or stability, while a 10% bound on TAC can affect the ability to achieve management targets and result in low-frequency cycling in the stock. In the short term, performance is highly dependent on current stock status but bounds have less effect if the stock is close to equilibrium for a target fishing mortality (F). In addition, it was shown that current ICES biomass and fishing mortality reference points are not always consistent, and several are clearly inappropriate. Importantly, including realistic sources and levels of uncertainty can result in far from optimal management outcomes based on the current procedures. Results also conflicted with expert opinion, in suggesting that management based on a fixed F regime could result in relatively stable yields despite fluctuations in year-class strength and that the management feedback process itself is implicated in causing fluctuations in the system due to significant time-lags in this process. We therefore emphasize that providing more precise population estimates or developing harvest control rules alone will not necessarily help in achieving management objectives, rather management procedures that are robust to uncertainty and tuned to meet management objectives need to be developed. Operating models in these simulations were constrained to be based on existing ICES methods and perceptions of stock dynamics, but we recommend that, in future, operating models that represent the best available understanding of the actual system dynamics be used to evaluate models and rules considered for application.

scholarly journals Complex assessments or simple management procedures for efficient fisheries management: a comparative study

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 262-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. F. Geromont ◽  
D. S. Butterworth
Keyword(s):  
Fishery Management ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Essential Requirement ◽  
Fish Stocks ◽  
Control Rules ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Simple Rules ◽  
Sound Management

Abstract Complex stock assessment methods are data- and expertise-hungry, with the annual updates of catch-at-age data and models typically seen as an essential requirement for sound management. But are the heavy commitments of resources required for this level of annual intervention really necessary to achieve efficient long-term fishery management? This question is addressed through a retrospective analysis of management performance over the last 20 years for four North Atlantic fish stocks. The assessments for two of these stocks have exhibited fairly strong retrospective patterns. The actual assessment advice for these stocks was provided based on complex assessment methods making use of age data. The outcomes are compared with what could have been achieved with much simpler catch control rules based upon age-aggregated survey indices alone. Even for the stocks whose assessments exhibit retrospective patterns, these simple rules can achieve virtually equivalent catch and risk performance, with much less interannual TAC variability, compared with what actually occurred over the past 20 years.

scholarly journals Implications of climate change for the management of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua)

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 1483-1491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence T. Kell ◽  
Graham M. Pilling ◽  
Carl M. O'Brien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Management Procedures

Abstract Robustness of both short-term stock biomass recovery and longer-term sustainable management strategies to different plausible climatic change scenarios were evaluated for North Sea cod (Gadus morhua), where climate was assumed to impact growth and recruitment. In the short term, climate change had little effect on stock recovery, which depends instead upon reducing fishing effort to allow existing year classes to survive to maturity. In the longer term, climate change has greater effects on stock status, but higher yields and biomass can be expected if fishing mortality is reduced. Incorporating environmental covariates in stock assessment predictions will not achieve sustainable resource use. The implications of climate change for biological reference points depend upon the mechanism through which temperature acts on recruitment, i.e. on juvenile survival or carrying capacity. It is not possible to distinguish between these processes with stock assessment data sets alone. However, this study indicates that reference points based on fishing mortality appear more robust to uncertainty than those based on biomass. Ideally, simpler management procedures are required that meet pre-agreed management objectives and are robust to uncertainty about the true dynamics.

Fish Stock Indicators as Measure for Sustainability

2015 ◽  
pp. 118-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Violin S. Raykov ◽  
Ivelina Zlateva
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Fishery Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Age Determination ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Local Environment ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Mortality Estimation

Particular species may be good indicators of specific environmental factors in their local environment. It was found that one of the main objectives for effective and sustainable management of the fish stocks is to make regular annual assessment of the parental stock biomass, length and weight growth, age determination, mortality estimation and reproductive potential estimation. The Black Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) is a key species in the Black Sea ecosystem. Small pelagic forage fish and especially local one with shared stocks are very important from ecological (key trophic level) and commercial (intensively exploited) point of view. Fishery management strategies must ensure that fishing mortality will not exceed that which corresponds to MSY, and that the biomass will not fall below a predefined threshold. The goal of the chapter is to define the main objectives and measures for sustainable sprat exploitation in order to be in favour of decision makers and fishery managers.

scholarly journals Ecosystem-based reference points under varying plankton productivity states and fisheries management strategies

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (7) ◽  
pp. 2045-2059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanbo Guo ◽  
Caihong Fu ◽  
Robyn E Forrest ◽  
Norm Olsen ◽  
Huizhu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fisheries Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Productivity Change ◽  
Pacific Herring ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Pacific Cod ◽  
Sustainable Fisheries ◽  
Ecosystem Effects ◽  
Plankton Biomass

Abstract In the context of ecosystem-based fisheries management, which should consider changing and uncertain environmental conditions, the development of ecosystem-based biological reference points (EBRPs) to account for important multi-species (MS) interactions, fishery operations, and climate change, is of paramount importance for sustainable fisheries management. However, EBRPs under varying plankton productivity states and fisheries management strategies are seldom developed, and the ecosystem effects of these changes are still largely unknown. In this study, ecosystem-based FMSY (fishing mortality rate at MSY) values were estimated within an end-to-end ecosystem model (OSMOSE) for three focused fish species (Pacific Herring, Clupea pallasii; Pacific Cod, Gadus macrocephalus; Lingcod, Ophiodon elongatus) under three plankton productivity states of differing plankton biomass at high, current, and low levels. In addition, ecosystem effects were compared across different plankton productivity and fisheries management strategies with the latter consisting of two fishery scenarios (i.e. single-species-focused (SS) and MS-focused), various fishing mortality rates, and two harvest policies (with and without harvest control rules, HCRs). Main findings of this study include: (i) plankton productivity change affected the values of ecosystem-based FMSY, which increased as plankton productivity states changed from low to high plankton biomass; (ii) ecosystem-based FMSY for Pacific Herring and Pacific Cod stocks increased when fishery scenarios shifted from SS-focused to MS-focused; (iii) fisheries management incorporating HCR yielded more stable system catch and system biomass; and (iv) high plankton biomass combined with fisheries management using HCR could maintain stable ecosystem production and sustainable fisheries. Based on our findings, we highlight possible adaptive fisheries management strategies in the face of future climate and ocean changes. Overall, EBRPs complement SS stock assessments by incorporating key ecological processes and ecosystem properties, thus providing supporting evidence for better incorporation of ecosystem considerations into scientific advice for sustainable fisheries management.

Comparison of multiple approaches to calculate time-varying biological reference points in climate-linked population-dynamics models

2019 ◽  
Vol 77 (3) ◽  
pp. 930-941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia A O’Leary ◽  
James T Thorson ◽  
Timothy J Miller ◽  
Janet A Nye
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Summer Flounder ◽  
Stock Status ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Fisheries managers use biological reference points (BRPs) as targets or limits on fishing and biomass to maintain productive levels of fish stock biomass. There are multiple ways to calculate BRPs when biological parameters are time varying. Using summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) as a case study, we investigated time-varying approaches in concert with climate-linked population models to understand the impact of environmentally driven variability in natural mortality, recruitment, and size-at-age on two commonly used BRPs [B0(t) and F35%(t)]. We used the following two approaches to calculate time-varying BRPs: dynamic-BRP and moving-average-BRP. We quantified the variability and uncertainty of different climate dependencies and estimation approaches, attributed BRP variation to variation in life-history processes, and evaluated how using different approaches impacts estimates of stock status. Results indicate that the dynamic-BRP approach using the climate-linked natural mortality model produced the least variable reference points compared to others calculated. Summer flounder stock status depended on the estimation approach and climate model used. These results emphasize that understanding climate dependencies is important for summer flounder reference points and perhaps other species, and careful consideration is warranted when considering what time-varying approach to use, ideally based upon simulation studies within a proposed set of management procedures.

scholarly journals Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 77 (4) ◽  
pp. 1492-1502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla Sguotti ◽  
Saskia A Otto ◽  
Xochitl Cormon ◽  
Karl M Werner ◽  
Ethan Deyle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Fishery Management ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Recovery Potential ◽  
Stock Recruitment ◽  
Model Approach ◽  
Non Parametric

Abstract The stock–recruitment relationship is the basis of any stock prediction and thus fundamental for fishery management. Traditional parametric stock–recruitment models often poorly fit empirical data, nevertheless they are still the rule in fish stock assessment procedures. We here apply a multi-model approach to predict recruitment of 20 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks as a function of adult biomass and environmental variables. We compare the traditional Ricker model with two non-parametric approaches: (i) the stochastic cusp model from catastrophe theory and (ii) multivariate simplex projections, based on attractor state-space reconstruction. We show that the performance of each model is contingent on the historical dynamics of individual stocks, and that stocks which experienced abrupt and state-dependent dynamics are best modelled using non-parametric approaches. These dynamics are pervasive in Western stocks highlighting a geographical distinction between cod stocks, which have implications for their recovery potential. Furthermore, the addition of environmental variables always improved the models’ predictive power indicating that they should be considered in stock assessment and management routines. Using our multi-model approach, we demonstrate that we should be more flexible when modelling recruitment and tailor our approaches to the dynamical properties of each individual stock.

scholarly journals Ecological Reference Points for Atlantic Menhaden Established Using an Ecosystem Model of Intermediate Complexity

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Chagaris ◽  
Katie Drew ◽  
Amy Schueller ◽  
Matt Cieri ◽  
Joana Brito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Striped Bass ◽  
Fishery Management ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Atlantic Menhaden ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Total Allowable Catch ◽  
Important Species ◽  
Ecosystem Impacts ◽  
Intermediate Complexity

Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) are an important forage fish for many predators, and they also support the largest commercial fishery by weight on the U.S. East Coast. Menhaden management has been working toward ecological reference points (ERPs) that account for menhaden’s role in the ecosystem. The goal of this work was to develop menhaden ERPs using ecosystem models. An existing Ecopath with Ecosim model of the Northwest Atlantic Continental Shelf (NWACS) was reduced in complexity from 61 to 17 species/functional groups. The new NWACS model of intermediate complexity for ecosystems (NWACS-MICE) serves to link the dynamics of menhaden with key managed predators. Striped bass (Morone saxatilis) were determined to be most sensitive to menhaden harvest and therefore served as an indicator of ecosystem impacts. ERPs were based on the tradeoff relationship between the equilibrium biomass of striped bass and menhaden fishing mortality (F). The ERPs were defined as the menhaden F rates that maintain striped bass at their biomass target and threshold when striped bass are fished at their Ftarget, and all other modeled species were fished at status quo levels. These correspond to an ERP Ftarget of 0.19 and an ERP Fthreshold of 0.57, which are lower than the single species reference points by 30–40%, but higher than current (2017) menhaden F. The ERPs were then fed back into the age-structured stock assessment model projections to provide information on total allowable catch. The ERPs developed in this study were adopted by the Atlantic menhaden Management Board, marking a shift toward ecosystem-based fishery management for this economically and ecologically important species.

Impacts of outliers and mis-specification of priors on Bayesian fisheries-stock assessment

2000 ◽  
Vol 57 (11) ◽  
pp. 2293-2305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Chen ◽  
P A Breen ◽  
N L Andrew
Keyword(s):  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Prior Distributions ◽  
Likelihood Functions ◽  
Robust Likelihood

Bayesian inference is increasingly used in estimating model parameters for fish-stock assessment, because of its ability to incorporate uncertainty and prior knowledge and to provide information for risk analyses in evaluating alternative management strategies. Normal distributions are commonly used in formulating likelihood functions and informative prior distributions; these are sensitive to data outliers and mis-specification of prior distributions, both common problems in fisheries-stock assessment. Using a length-structured stock-assessment model for a New Zealand abalone fishery as an example, we evaluate the robustness of three likelihood functions and two prior-distribution functions, with respect to outliers and mis-specification of priors, in 48 different combinations. The two robust likelihood estimators performed slightly less well when no data outliers were present and much better when data outliers were present. Similarly, the Cauchy distribution was less sensitive to prior mis-specification than the normal distribution. We conclude that replacing the normal distribution with "fat-tailed" distributions for likelihoods and priors can improve Bayesian assessments when there are data outliers and mis-specification of priors, with relatively minor costs when there are none.

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