Estimating spatio-temporal air temperature in London (UK) using machine learning and earth observation satellite data

Several methods have been tried to estimate air temperature using satellite imagery. In this paper, the results of two machine learning algorithms, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest, are compared with Multivariate Linear Regression, TVX and Ordinary kriging. Several geographic, remote sensing and time variables are used as predictors. The validation is carried out using four different statistics on a daily basis allowing the use of ANOVA to compare the results. The main conclusion is that Random Forest with residual kriging produces the best results (R$^2$=0.612 $\pm$ 0.019, NSE=0.578 $\pm$ 0.025, RMSE=1.068 $\pm$ 0.027, PBIAS=-0.172 $\pm$ 0.046), whereas TVX produces the least accurate results. The environmental conditions in the study area are not really suited to TVX, moreover this method only takes into account satellite data. On the other hand, regression methods (Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Multivariate Linear Regression) use several parameters that are easily calculated from a Digital Elevation Model, adding very little difficulty to the use of satellite data alone. The most important variables in the Random Forest Model were satellite temperature, potential irradiation and cdayt, a cosine transformation of the julian day.

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Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Dynamics on the Land Surface Using Earth Observation Data—A Review

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12213513 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (21) ◽

pp. 3513

Author(s):

Jonas Koehler ◽

Claudia Kuenzer

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Land Surface ◽

Input Data ◽

Earth Observation ◽

Series Data ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

Spatio Temporal

Reliable forecasts on the impacts of global change on the land surface are vital to inform the actions of policy and decision makers to mitigate consequences and secure livelihoods. Geospatial Earth Observation (EO) data from remote sensing satellites has been collected continuously for 40 years and has the potential to facilitate the spatio-temporal forecasting of land surface dynamics. In this review we compiled 143 papers on EO-based forecasting of all aspects of the land surface published in 16 high-ranking remote sensing journals within the past decade. We analyzed the literature regarding research focus, the spatial scope of the study, the forecasting method applied, as well as the temporal and technical properties of the input data. We categorized the identified forecasting methods according to their temporal forecasting mechanism and the type of input data. Time-lagged regressions which are predominantly used for crop yield forecasting and approaches based on Markov Chains for future land use and land cover simulation are the most established methods. The use of external climate projections allows the forecasting of numerical land surface parameters up to one hundred years into the future, while auto-regressive time series modeling can account for intra-annual variances. Machine learning methods have been increasingly used in all categories and multivariate modeling that integrates multiple data sources appears to be more popular than univariate auto-regressive modeling despite the availability of continuously expanding time series data. Regardless of the method, reliable EO-based forecasting requires high-level remote sensing data products and the resulting computational demand appears to be the main reason that most forecasts are conducted only on a local scale. In the upcoming years, however, we expect this to change with further advances in the field of machine learning, the publication of new global datasets, and the further establishment of cloud computing for data processing.

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