The impact of financial development on the effectiveness of inflation targeting in developing economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 25-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Y. Ouyang ◽  
Ramkishen S. Rajan
2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 380-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Godfrey Chidozie Uzonwanne

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to propose a framework for conceptualizing the finance-growth theory in developing economies. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a cointegration and error correction model to investigate the possible influence of key socio-political characters of a state on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. A developing economy (Nigeria) which had experienced decades of autocratic military governance was studied. Three characters of the state (ethnicity, civil war and military governance) were derived from a historical review and were introduced into the cointegration analysis as dummy variables. Findings – Evidence of a causal relationship was found to exist from financial development to economic growth and the characters of the state were found to have no significant impact on this relationship. Research limitations/implications – The research limitations were based on the reliability of data recorded between 1960 and 2007. Practical implications – This study is practical from the point of view of the integration of qualitative social disturbances into a quantitative model targeted at exploring the practical developmental impact these disturbances may have had and continue to have on economic growth. Social implications – The social implication of this study stems from the impact that adverse socio-political influences may have on financial development and economic growth. Originality/value – This is an original piece of research focused at understanding the unique social, political and macroeconomic circumstance of a strategically relevant developing economy.


Author(s):  
Zhandos Ybrayev

In this paper, I explain theoretically the coordination and conflict scheme of fiscal and monetary policy workings, and then empirically assess the effect of both inflation-targeting and non-inflation-only targeting policies on inflation and unemployment rates. I employ a difference-in-difference method to estimate the impact on inflation, the unemployment rate, and their volatilities in both 10 inflation-targeting (single-mandate) and 11 non-inflation-targeting (multiple-mandate) countries specifically from the sample of developing economies over the period from 1998 to 2018. Our key findings show that while the inflation-targeting countries effectively present a reduction in inflation and inflation volatility, the effects on the unemployment rate are negligible, while unemployment volatility is higher in the period 1998–2008. Finally, the paper argues that the unemployment rate should be used as a natural second target in a typical emerging-market economy case.


Author(s):  
Inomjon Jumaniyozov

The International financial system has been increasingly supporting the economic growth in all economic groups of countries by offering a range of opportunities to push development paces. Establishment of financial development institutions is growth driving engine of both developed and developing countries through development-oriented projects and funding tools. However, developing economies are facing particular challenges in prioritizing the basic financing areas through the development of financial tools. This article analyses the impact of global development finance institutions on world economic growth and proposes policy and research-oriented recommendations for Reconstruction and Development Fund of Uzbekistan.


2021 ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Dziubliuk

Introduction. Inflation targeting, as a commitment by the central bank to adhere to quantitative inflation rates, has become a fairly common monetary regime in the last few decades in developed countries and developing economies. However, the impact of the pandemic crisis on the course of economic processes has revealed serious problems associated with the low efficiency of this regime. Therefore, there is an objective need to re-evaluate the system in which the central bank focuses monetary regulation solely on price stability, ignoring other strategic directions of government policy related to the need to save economic activity and prevent a large-scale recession.Purpose. Clarification of the peculiarities of the implementation of monetary policy on the basis of the inflation targeting regime and identification of problematic aspects of this regime in the conditions of external shocks and the unfolding economic crisis.Methods. General scientific and empirical techniques and tools of economics, methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, compilation and grouping are used.Results. The crisis indicates the need to build a monetary regime that would meet the interests of sustainable economic growth and social welfare. In Ukraine, there were no proper initial preconditions for the inflation targeting regime implementation. Therefore, adjusting the priorities of monetary policy in the crisis should reflect the gradual transition to a more flexible regime using monetary methods to support households and businesses, promote job creation, and stimulate aggregate demand.Prospects. Research of ways to increase the level of flexibility of monetary regulation, opportunities to expand the mandate of the central bank and improve the choice of optimal areas of influence on the economy with the help of monetary instruments at its disposal.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-61
Author(s):  
Philipp Kartaev ◽  
Artem Chernichin

In this paper we introduce the results of the research about the impact of financial development on the decrease in deviation of the real inflation rate from the central bank’s stated target inflation rate. Using methods of cluster analysis and panel procedures on a sample of the countries, which at the moment of writing the research officially stated to adhere to a policy of inflation targeting, we show that improving characteristics of financial development benefit the success of an inflation targeting regime (in terms of achieving its desired goal). It is also stated that for emerging economies the most vital channels of this mechanism are the increases in the efficiency and in the stability of financial markets and institutions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Neil A. Wilmot ◽  
Ariuna Taivan

Global energy production has been on the rise for many years, and reliance on traditional sources of energy remains strong. The extraction and production of energy can serve as an important avenue of growth, particularly for developing economies. To undertake such capital intensive project requires significant investment, and, intuitively, a well-functioning domestic financial system would be expected to aid in the growth of such industries. We investigate the relationship between financial development and energy production for 15 emerging countries, over the period of 1995–2017. After establishing the presence of a unit root, based upon panel data methods, a cointegrating relationship between financial development and energy production is confirmed. The results of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimation establish a long run relationship in 11 of 15 countries in the sample. Panel Granger causality results provide a link between energy production and foreign direct investment (FDI), while such a link is absent for domestic credit. Policymakers should understand that development of the energy sector can provide an incentive for foreign firms to invest in emerging economics.


2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 53-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhijit Surya

Inflation Targeting (IT) has gained much popularity in recent years, with fifteen countries formally adopting it as a monetary policy framework since 2000. However, in developing countries, where the contribution of food prices to headline inflation is generally higher than in advanced economies, the adequacy of an IT framework for curbing inflation is very much contested. In this paper, we use a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the treatment effect of adopting IT. Controlling for reversion to the mean, we find that economies that function under an IT regime do no better than countries that use alternative policy instruments. We verify the robustness of these results using panel unit-root tests and find that food inflation rates converge across economies irrespective of the monetary policy framework implemented.


2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.


2017 ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kartaev

The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term economic growth. We analyze the potential channels of influence, as well as modern empirical studies that test performance of these channels. We compare the effects of different variants of inflation targeting (strict and mixed). Based on the analysis recommendations on the choice of optimal (in terms of stimulating long-term growth) regime of monetary policy in developed and developing economies are formulated.


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