Is inflation targeting useful for economic growth?

2017 ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kartaev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Test Performance ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Growth Regime ◽  
Potential Channels

The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term economic growth. We analyze the potential channels of influence, as well as modern empirical studies that test performance of these channels. We compare the effects of different variants of inflation targeting (strict and mixed). Based on the analysis recommendations on the choice of optimal (in terms of stimulating long-term growth) regime of monetary policy in developed and developing economies are formulated.

scholarly journals Monetary regulation and its role in the state’s economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (10) ◽  
pp. 81-94
Author(s):  
Viktoriia KOVALENKO ◽  
◽  
Sergii SHELUDKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Close Correlation ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Common Goals ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

The article provides a comparative analysis of monetary regulation models and explores their impact on economic growth. The aim of the paper is to study models of monetary regulation and their impact on economic growth. The authors claim that monetary regulation of any country in the world should be aimed at ensuring economic growth. The study shows that the rapid development of monetary policy and economic growth theories is marked by certain contradictions, uncertainty and cross flows. Based on the analysis of the views of researchers on the impact of monetary regulation on economic growth, the authors conclude that concepts are divided according to those that characterize weak relations between these phenomena, and those that prove close correlation. The authors state that in Ukraine, in conditions of using a monetary design based on the inflation targeting regime and taking into account the importance of increasing the efficiency of using main instruments of monetary regulation, it is necessary, first of all, to ensure the consistency of monetary and fiscal policies. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies should consist of developing and implementing them in such a way that they do not contradict each other and together contribute to the achievement of the common goals of economic policy, such as sustainable economic growth and low unemployment in terms of long-term price and external stabilities. That is, the main problem of the significant influence of monetary regulation on economic growth in the country lies in restoring the effectiveness of the channels of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which depends on the choice of monetary design.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

scholarly journals Regular Econometric Model of Taylor for Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Ergys Misha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Assets

The Taylor’s Rule Central Banks is applying widely today from Central Banks for design the monetary policy and for determination of interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to assess monetary policy rule in Albania, in view of an inflation targeting regime. In the first version of the Model, the Taylor’s Rule assumes that base interest rate of the monetary policy varies depending on the change of (1) the inflation rate and (2) economic growth (Output Gap).Through this paper it is proposed changing the objective of the Bank of Albania by adding a new objective, that of "financial stability", along with the “price stability”. This means that it is necessary to reassess the Taylor’s Rule by modifying it with incorporation of indicators of financial stability. In the case of Albania, we consider that there is no regular market of financial assets in the absence of the Stock Exchange. For this reason, we will rely on the credit developmet - as a way to measure the financial cycle in the economy. In this case, the base rate of monetary policy will be changed throught: (1) Targeting Inflation Rate, (2) Nominal Targeting of Economic Growth, and (3) Targeting the Gap of the Ratio Credit/GDP (mitigating the boom cycle, if the gap is positive, and the contractiocycle if the gap is negative).The research data show that, it is necessary that the Bank of Albania should also include in its objective maintaining the financial stability. In this way, the contribution expected from the inclusion of credit gap indicators in Taylor’s Rule, will be higher and sustainable in time.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Instruments on Economic Growth in Jordan Using Vector Error Correction Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 194
Author(s):  
Rami Obeid ◽  
Bassam Awad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

The global financial crisis emphasized the important role of the prudent monetary policy in supporting economic growth through maintaining price stability. The monetary policy operational framework that was designed in 2008 was updated to include more instruments for managing monetary policy learning from the crisis lessons. Several studies analyzed various dimensions related to economic growth in Jordan such as Abdul-Khaliq, Soufan, and Abu Shihab (2013) and Assaf (2014), there were no studies that investigated the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Jordan, at least recently, however. The study aims at measuring the effect of monetary policy instruments on the performance of Jordanian economy. Using quarterly data covering the period (2005-2015), an econometric model was examined using Vector Error Correction Model to assess the impact of monetary policy instruments on economic growth. The foremost advantage of VECM is that it has a nice interpretation of long-term and short-term equations. The results showed the existence of positive long-term and short-term effects of monetary policy instruments on the growth of real GDP. The model included three monetary policy instruments besides money supply. They are required reserve ratio, rediscount rate and overnight interbank loan rates as independent variables, and the real GDP growth as a dependent variable. The stationarity of the model time series was addressed. In addition, the stability of the model was tested using stability diagnostics tools. The results showed also an existence of inverse relationship between rediscount rate and economic growth in Jordan over both long and short terms.

scholarly journals Albania's Monetary Policy and the Basic Indicators that Effect the Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Bernard Balla
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Consumer Prices

Macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize the economy by achieving their goal of price stability, full employment and economic growth. Price stability is the responsibility of macroeconomic policies that are developed to maintain a low inflation rate, contribute to the solidity of the domestic product and maintain an exchange rate that can be predictable. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Albania's monetary policy by highlighting the main indicators that can be used as a measurement of the efficiency of this policy in the economic development. The literature review shows that there are many attitudes regarding the factors that need to be taken into consideration when analyzing monetary policies, including the elements of fiscal policies. In the Albanian economy, the prices and the level of inflation are the most important aspects. The Bank of Albania uses the inflation targeting regime, considering that the main indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy is the deviation of inflation forecasted in the medium term by its target level. In numerical terms, the bank intends to maintain its annual growth in consumer prices at the level of 3%. According to the latest reports published by the Bank of Albania in 2019, monetary policy continues to contribute positively to a financial environment with a low interest rate and an annual inflation rate of 2%. Although the inflation rate hit the lowest value of 1.8 % in 2018, a balanced rate was achieved through the reduction of interest rates and risk premiums in financial markets and, more recently, through the tightening of the exchange rate. These monetary conditions are appropriate to support the growth of domestic demand and the strengthening of inflationary pressures.

scholarly journals Influence of inflation on long-term economic growth in the context of the raw material orientation of the national economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 06003
Author(s):  
Aizhan Omarova ◽  
Zhanar Oralbaeva ◽  
Assel Turlybekova ◽  
Assiya Marat
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Functional Dependence ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Material Orientation ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Cost

In modern conditions for Kazakhstan, it becomes important to choose a development model that would be the most optimal and effective. When developing a model of economic policy, special attention should be paid to the choice of a system of indicators that could adequately describe macroeconomic processes as a whole and their interconnections. At the same time, economists argue that the implementation of the model approach can become the basis for strategic decisions only in a stable economic situation and when in the period under review the change in the cost structure of GDP is not distorted by high inflation. Therefore, in modern conditions of economic development, in our opinion, it is of interest to study the relationship between economic growth and the level of current and threshold inflation. This study substantiates the role of the threshold inflation level and proposes an equation of the functional dependence of this indicator on the main economic indicators. The necessary conditions for the implementation of the inflation targeting regime are disclosed. It is concluded that in conditions of commodity dependence, new effective monetary policy instruments are required.

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on China’s Economy: An Empirical Investigation Based on VAR Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 524-527 ◽  
pp. 3211-3215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Ping Wang ◽  
Ai Mei Hu ◽  
Zhen Xin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
China’S Economy

China has been in rapid economic growth and industrial structure reform for recent years, and oil, as a most important raw material for industrial production, its price fluctuations have direct impact on energy-intensive industries as well as non-energy-intensive industries and their associated industries’ overall demands. Under the price transmission mechanism, oil price volatility imposes significant influences on economic growth rate, price level, unemployment rate and monetary policy as well. This paper established VAR model among oil prices and economic indicators such as economic growth rate, price level, unemployment rate and monetary policy, and by data processing , stability test and cointegration test, we found that there existed long term stable cointegration relations among these sequences; through Granger Causality test we found that oil price volatility was the Granger cause of the fluctuations of economic growth rate, price level and monetary policy, and meanwhile, changes in economic growth rate is the Granger cause of that in price level. The result of our empirical study indicated that, oil price volatility has a profound influence on China’s economy, and thus, China should improve the establishment of the oil futures market to avoid risks of oil price volatility and secure long-term stability of its economic growth.

Macroeconomic Policy in Japan

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick J. McKibbin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
Inflation Targets

This paper explores the composition of the macroeconomic policy packages that would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy. An empirical econometric model is used to predict the consequences of a monetary stimulus consisting of an open-market purchase of government bonds by the Bank of Japan combined with the announcement and implementation of inflation targeting in Japan. The paper also compares the impacts of permanent, temporary, and phased fiscal adjustments. The model predicts that monetary policy would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy through causing a depreciation of the yen. Similarly, a substantial fiscal consolidation in Japan would be only mildly contractionary for the first two years but then would yield substantial long-term benefits to the Japanese economy. Combining a credible fiscal contraction that is phased in over three years with an inflation target would be likely to provide a powerful macroeconomic stimulus to the Japanese economy, through a weaker exchange rate and lower long-term real interest rates, and would sustain higher growth in Japan for a decade. Thus, a switch in the macroeconomic policy mix toward a loose monetary policy (e.g., setting inflation targets between 2 and 3 percent) and a tight fiscal policy is likely to be an important part of a successful package of reforms to raise Japanese productivity growth over the coming years.

scholarly journals Comparison of the impact of lending and inflation rates on economic growth in Vietnam and China

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 193-203
Author(s):  
Doan Van Dinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Close Correlation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
The Impact

Inflation and lending rates are two important macroeconomic indicators as they affect economic growth. The correlation between the inflation rate and the lending rate in Vietnam and China is analyzed to determine whether the lending rate causes inflation or not. An ordinary least square model (OLS) and a unit root test are applied to check the correlation and cointegration related to the inflation and lending rates to avoid spurious regression. The research time series data were collected from 1996 to 2017. The correlation of Vietnam’s variables is 56%, the correlation of China’s variables is 55%, which is a close correlation. The empirical cointegration test results for Vietnam and China are suitable for two research models. The relationship between these two indicators influences each other. In the short term, inflation stimulates economic growth through loose monetary policy through the lending rate. However, in the long term, if the money supply increases continuously, inflation will slow economic growth and increase bad debt. The empirical results are to make accurate forecasts and determine monetary policy for micro-managers who set the goal of sustainable economic growth and have a strategy for economic development in the short and long term.

scholarly journals Critical Exploration of Indian Economic Reforms of 1991: a lesson for Developing Economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5S3) ◽  
pp. 490-500 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Critical Exploration ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of reforms that took place in Indian economy in 1991. Balance of payment difficulty resulted in acute economic crisis and therefore economic reforms were inevitable. Post this incident; there have been three more phases of economic reforms. Economic reforms were compelled due to international pressure of the situation post balance of payment crisis of 1991. The significance of this study lies in the derivation of various ways in which these reforms played a major role in the transformation of Indian economy in the form of its impact on poverty, education, socio-cultural mixture, economic growth etc. We have tried to revisit situation of payments crisis and tried to understand if these reforms were enough and were they concrete measures to tackle long-term problem or if they were only sufficient to handle the crisis. Finally we have tried to find out, as to what was left out of reforms or what other measures could have been taken. Balance of payment difficulties are difficulties faced by most of the underdeveloped or developing countries

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