2102 LONGITUDINAL PSA AND PROSTATE VOLUME CHANGES IN MEN WHO DEVELOP PROSTATE CANCER

Background: Beyond prostate-specific antigen (PSA), other biomarkers for prostate cancer (PCa) detection are available and need to be evaluated for clinical routine. Objective: The aim of the study was to evaluate the Prostate Health Index (PHI) density (PHID) in comparison with PHI in a large Caucasian group >1,000 men. Methods: PHID values were used from available patient data with PSA, free PSA, and [−2]proPSA and prostate volume from 3 former surveys from 2002 to 2014. Those 1,446 patients from a single-center cohort included 701 men with PCa and 745 with no PCa. All patients received initial or repeat biopsies. The diagnostic accuracy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves comparing area under the ROC curves (AUCs), precision-recall approach, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: PHID medians differed almost 2-fold between PCa (1.12) and no PCa (0.62) in comparison to PHI (48.6 vs. 33; p always <0.0001). However, PHID and PHI were equal regarding the AUC (0.737 vs. 0.749; p = 0.226), and the curves of the precision-recall analysis also overlapped in the sensitivity range between 70 and 100%. DCA had a maximum net benefit of only ∼5% for PHID versus PHI between 45 and 55% threshold probability. Contrary, in the 689 men with a prostate volume ≤40 cm3, PHI (AUC 0.732) showed a significant larger AUC than PHID (AUC 0.69, p = 0.014). Conclusions: Based on DCA, PHID had only a small advantage in comparison with PHI alone, while ROC analysis and precision-recall analysis showed similar results. In smaller prostates, PHI even outperformed PHID. The increment for PHID in this large Caucasian cohort is too small to justify a routine clinical use.

Download Full-text

Integrated predictive model for prostatic cancer using clinical, laboratory and ultrasound data

Revista do Colégio Brasileiro de Cirurgiões ◽

10.1590/0100-69912016006004 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 43 (6) ◽

pp. 430-437

Author(s):

GUSTAVO DAVID LUDWIG ◽

HENRIQUE PERES ROCHA ◽

LÚCIO JOSÉ BOTELHO ◽

MAIARA BRUSCO FREITAS

Keyword(s):

Prostate Cancer ◽

Predictive Model ◽

Prostate Biopsy ◽

Clinical Laboratory ◽

Prostate Volume ◽

Specific Antigen ◽

Digital Rectal Examination ◽

Roc Curves ◽

Rectal Examination ◽

Psa Density

ABSTRACT Objective: to develop a predictive model to estimate the probability of prostate cancer prior to biopsy. Methods: from September 2009 to January 2014, 445 men underwent prostate biopsy in a radiology service. We excluded from the study patients with diseases that could compromise the data analysis, who had undergone prostatic resection or used 5-alpha-reductase inhibitors. Thus, we selected 412 patients. Variables included in the model were age, prostate specific antigen (PSA), digital rectal examination, prostate volume and abnormal sonographic findings. We constructed Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and calculated the areas under the curve, as well as the model's Positive Predictive Value (PPV) . Results: of the 412 men, 155 (37.62%) had prostate cancer (PC). The mean age was 63.8 years and the median PSA was 7.22ng/ml. In addition, 21.6% and 20.6% of patients had abnormalities on digital rectal examination and image suggestive of cancer by ultrasound, respectively. The median prostate volume and PSA density were 45.15cm3 and 0.15ng/ml/cm3, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that only five studied risk factors are predictors of PC in the study (p<0.05). The PSA density was excluded from the model (p=0.314). The area under the ROC curve for PC prediction was 0.86. The PPV was 48.08% for 95%sensitivity and 52.37% for 90% sensitivity. Conclusion: the results indicate that clinical, laboratory and ultrasound data, besides easily obtained, can better stratify the risk of patients undergoing prostate biopsy.

Download Full-text