scholarly journals MP10-19 A PREDICTING MODEL BASED ON RISK FACTORS FOR UROSEPSIS AFTER ONE-PHASE PERCUTANEOUS NEPHROLITHOTOMY

2018 ◽  
Vol 199 (4S) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqing Liu ◽  
Jian LU ◽  
Chunlei Xiao ◽  
Lulin Ma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy ◽  
Predicting Model ◽  
Model Based

scholarly journals Predicting Damage to Hop Cones by Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna L Woods ◽  
Anne E Iskra ◽  
David H Gent
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Tetranychus Urticae ◽  
Crop Damage ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Current Management ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Predatory Arthropods ◽  
Cone Damage

Abstract Twospotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae Koch) is a cosmopolitan pest of numerous plants, including hop (Humulus lupulus L.). The most costly damage from the pest on hop results from infestation of cones, which are the harvested product, which can render crops unsalable if cones become discolored. We analyzed 14 yr of historical data from 312 individual experimental plots in western Oregon to identify risk factors associated with visual damage to hop cones from T. urticae. Logistic regression models were fit to estimate the probability of cone damage. The most predictive model was based on T. urticae-days during mid-July to harvest, which correctly predicted occurrence and nonoccurrence of cone damage in 91 and 93% of data sets, respectively, based on Youden’s index. A second model based on the ratio of T. urticae to predatory arthropods late in the season correctly predicted cone damage in 92% of data sets and nonoccurrence of damage in 77% of data sets. The model based on T. urticae abundance performed similarly when validated in 23 commercial hop yards, whereas the model based on the predator:prey ratio was relatively conservative and yielded false-positive predictions in 11 of the 23 yards. Antecedents of these risk factors were explored and quantified by structural equation modeling. A simple path diagram was constructed that conceptualizes T. urticae invasion of hop cones as dependent on prior density of the pest on leaves in early spring and summer, which in turn influences the development of predatory arthropods that mediate late-season density of the pest. In summary, the biological insights and models developed here provide guidance to pest managers on the likelihood of visual cone damage from T. urticae that can inform late-season management based on both abundance of the pest and its important predators. This is critically important because a formal economic threshold for T. urticae on hop does not exist and current management efforts may be mistimed to influence the pest when crop damage is most probable. More broadly, this research suggests that current management practices that target T. urticae early in the season may in fact predispose yards to later outbreaks of the pest.

scholarly journals Reasoning-predicting Model based on Strong Relevant Logic in Road Traffic Forecasting

2012 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 1105-1110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dancheng Li ◽  
Zhiliang Liu ◽  
Cheng Liu ◽  
Binsheng Liu ◽  
Wei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic ◽  
Relevant Logic ◽  
Predicting Model ◽  
Traffic Forecasting ◽  
Model Based

Development of a Multivariable Model Based on Individual Risk Factors for Recurrent Lateral Patellar Dislocation

2021 ◽  
Vol 103 (7) ◽  
pp. 586-592
Author(s):  
Daphne I. Ling ◽  
Jacqueline M. Brady ◽  
Elizabeth Arendt ◽  
Marc Tompkins ◽  
Julie Agel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Patellar Dislocation ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Multivariable Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Lateral Patellar Dislocation ◽  
Individual Risk Factors

Establishment of Predictive Model for Related Factors of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) After Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy (PCNL)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Ju ◽  
Jin Zheng ◽  
li Ying Pan ◽  
lin Lin Gao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome ◽  
Inflammatory Response ◽  
Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy ◽  
Operative Time ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Infection Process ◽  
Systemic Inflammatory Response ◽  
Related Factors

Abstract Background:The percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) is a primary method of stone treatment, but the infection is a very common postoperative complication. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is a stage of the infection process and a very important early clinical manifestation of sepsis, so identifying the risk factors associated with SIRS after PCNL plays an important role in ensuring patients’ safety and preventing sepsis. Methods:Between September 2016 and September 2017,there were total 352 patients who were diagnosed as renal stone and were treated with PCNL, andincluded in this study at last.Patients were divided into two groups according to whether SIRS occurred or not.The univariate analysis was performed on the related risk factors such as patients' age, gender, number of stone, diabetes et al. Then logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis and established a prediction model.Results:There are 352renal stone patients were treated with PCNL, and 106 patients (30.1%) suffered SIRS after operation.It was found that the operative time, preoperative fever and diabetes could be deemed as risk factors, and the Then logistic regression results indicated that diabetes (OR=2.049, 95%CI 1.008～4.166) and operative time (OR=1.011, 95%CI 1.003～1.019) entered the regression equation.Conclusion: Diabetes and operative time are independent risk factors for SIRS after PCNL, so the probability of SIRS after PCNL can be determined in accordance with these two indicators.

Risk factors for sepsis in patients with struvite stones following percutaneous nephrolithotomy

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 219-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomin Gao ◽  
Chaoyue Lu ◽  
Fei Xie ◽  
Ling Li ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy ◽  
Struvite Stones
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