Simultaneously modeling the volatility of the growth rate of real GDP and determining business cycle turning points: Evidence from the U.S., Canada and the UK

2006 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shyh-Wei Chen
1996 ◽  
Vol 156 ◽  
pp. 63-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Weale

Leading indicators are produced by both the OECD and the UK Office of National Statistics as tools for predicting turning points of the business cycle. An assessment on the basis of performance at turning points is frustrated by their scarcity. It is found that the indicators generally have significant (but not good) ability to predict changes in the direction of the variable they are intended to lead. When they are included in VAR models the standard error of quarter on quarter changes is generally lower than when pure autoregressions are used. However, the forecasting power of such equations is poor, and the general conclusion is that such indicators are not good forecasting tools.


Author(s):  
Gad Levanon ◽  
Ataman Ozyildirim ◽  
Jean Claude Manini ◽  
Brian Schaitkin ◽  
Jennelyn Tanchua

2006 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 236-246
Author(s):  
Herbert Schroeder ◽  
John Flannigan ◽  
Richard Coles

Research on residents’ attitudes has shown that street trees are highly valued elements of the urban environment and that their benefits far outweigh their annoyances. Much of this research was done in communities in the United States, and it is uncertain whether the findings can be generalized to other communities or countries. We compared residents’ opinions of street trees, perceptions of the benefits and annoyances trees provide, and preferences for tree size, shape, and growth rate between three communities in the United States and the United Kingdom. Overall, opinions of nearby street trees were positive and did not differ between the two UK communities and the U.S. community. Respondents in the UK communities rated annoyances as more serious, shade as less of a benefit, and physical benefits as more significant than did the residents of the U.S. community. Respondents in the two UK communities also preferred smaller trees with slower growth rates. Although these comparisons cannot be used to make inferences about differences between the entire United Kingdom and United States, they do suggest some specific ways in which community characteristics such as climate and proximity of trees to houses may contribute to variation in attitudes toward trees.


2002 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 87-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Crafts

It has been claimed using the concept of the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) that there has been an absolute decline in sustainable living standards in the UK since the mid-1970s. Revisions to ISEW are proposed to make it more nearly a measure of utility-based real national income. In particular, ISEW should be revised to take account of much-improved life expectancy. Implementing any of the suggested revisions reverses the finding of absolute decline while implementing all of them results in a growth rate higher than that of real GDP per head in the national accounts.


2003 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 90-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Massmann ◽  
James Mitchell ◽  
Martin Weale

The business cycle has an importance in the popular debate which can tend to run ahead of the problems in measuring it. This paper provides a survey of the main statistical techniques that are used to measure the cycle. An application to the UK illustrates that the choice of what measure, or measures, to use is more than a dry academic issue. Inference about the business cycle is potentially sensitive to measurement. Fortunately, however, there is an element of consensus.


2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.


2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ahmed ◽  
Mark Granberg ◽  
Victor Troster ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin

AbstractThis paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.


2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bender ◽  
Joseph Jones ◽  
Mark Young ◽  
Hendrike Wulfert-Markert

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