scholarly journals Post-hoc modification of linear models: Combining machine learning with domain information to make solid inferences from noisy data

NeuroImage ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 204 ◽  
pp. 116221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marijn van Vliet ◽  
Riitta Salmelin
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marijn van Vliet ◽  
Riitta Salmelin

AbstractLinear machine learning models “learn” a data transformation by being exposed to examples of input with the desired output, forming the basis for a variety of powerful techniques for analyzing neuroimaging data. However, their ability to learn the desired transformation is limited by the quality and size of the example dataset, which in neuroimaging studies is often notoriously noisy and small. In these cases, it is desirable to fine-tune the learned linear model using domain information beyond the example dataset. To this end, we present a framework that decomposes the weight matrix of a fitted linear model into three subcomponents: the data covariance, the identified signal of interest, and a normalizer. Inspecting these subcomponents in isolation provides an intuitive way to inspect the inner workings of the model and assess its strengths and weaknesses. Furthermore, the three subcomponents may be altered, which provides a straightforward way to inject prior information and impose additional constraints. We refer to this process as “post-hoc modification” of a model and demonstrate how it can be used to achieve precise control over which aspects of the model are fitted to the data through machine learning and which are determined through domain information. As an example use case, we decode the associative strength between words from electroencephalography (EEG) reading data. Our results show how the decoding accuracy of two example linear models (ridge regression and logistic regression) can be boosted by incorporating information about the spatio-temporal nature of the data, domain information about the N400 evoked potential and data from other participants.HighlightsWe present a framework to decompose any linear model into three subcomponents that are straightforward to interpret.By modifying the subcomponents before re-assembling them into a linear model, prior information and further constraints may be injected into the model.As an example, we boost the performance of a linear regressor and classifier by injecting knowledge about the spatio-temporal nature of the data, the N400 evoked potential and data from other participants.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunmi Kwon ◽  
Myeongji Cho ◽  
Hayeon Kim ◽  
Hyeon S. Son

Background: The host tropism determinants of influenza virus, which cause changes in the host range and increase the likelihood of interaction with specific hosts, are critical for understanding the infection and propagation of the virus in diverse host species. Methods: Six types of protein sequences of influenza viral strains isolated from three classes of hosts (avian, human, and swine) were obtained. Random forest, naïve Bayes classification, and knearest neighbor algorithms were used for host classification. The Java language was used for sequence analysis programming and identifying host-specific position markers. Results: A machine learning technique was explored to derive the physicochemical properties of amino acids used in host classification and prediction. HA protein was found to play the most important role in determining host tropism of the influenza virus, and the random forest method yielded the highest accuracy in host prediction. Conserved amino acids that exhibited host-specific differences were also selected and verified, and they were found to be useful position markers for host classification. Finally, ANOVA analysis and post-hoc testing revealed that the physicochemical properties of amino acids, comprising protein sequences combined with position markers, differed significantly among hosts. Conclusion: The host tropism determinants and position markers described in this study can be used in related research to classify, identify, and predict the hosts of influenza viruses that are currently susceptible or likely to be infected in the future.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Henry Prakken ◽  
Rosa Ratsma

This paper proposes a formal top-level model of explaining the outputs of machine-learning-based decision-making applications and evaluates it experimentally with three data sets. The model draws on AI & law research on argumentation with cases, which models how lawyers draw analogies to past cases and discuss their relevant similarities and differences in terms of relevant factors and dimensions in the problem domain. A case-based approach is natural since the input data of machine-learning applications can be seen as cases. While the approach is motivated by legal decision making, it also applies to other kinds of decision making, such as commercial decisions about loan applications or employee hiring, as long as the outcome is binary and the input conforms to this paper’s factor- or dimension format. The model is top-level in that it can be extended with more refined accounts of similarities and differences between cases. It is shown to overcome several limitations of similar argumentation-based explanation models, which only have binary features and do not represent the tendency of features towards particular outcomes. The results of the experimental evaluation studies indicate that the model may be feasible in practice, but that further development and experimentation is needed to confirm its usefulness as an explanation model. Main challenges here are selecting from a large number of possible explanations, reducing the number of features in the explanations and adding more meaningful information to them. It also remains to be investigated how suitable our approach is for explaining non-linear models.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helder Sebastião ◽  
Pedro Godinho

AbstractThis study examines the predictability of three major cryptocurrencies—bitcoin, ethereum, and litecoin—and the profitability of trading strategies devised upon machine learning techniques (e.g., linear models, random forests, and support vector machines). The models are validated in a period characterized by unprecedented turmoil and tested in a period of bear markets, allowing the assessment of whether the predictions are good even when the market direction changes between the validation and test periods. The classification and regression methods use attributes from trading and network activity for the period from August 15, 2015 to March 03, 2019, with the test sample beginning on April 13, 2018. For the test period, five out of 18 individual models have success rates of less than 50%. The trading strategies are built on model assembling. The ensemble assuming that five models produce identical signals (Ensemble 5) achieves the best performance for ethereum and litecoin, with annualized Sharpe ratios of 80.17% and 91.35% and annualized returns (after proportional round-trip trading costs of 0.5%) of 9.62% and 5.73%, respectively. These positive results support the claim that machine learning provides robust techniques for exploring the predictability of cryptocurrencies and for devising profitable trading strategies in these markets, even under adverse market conditions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 6030
Author(s):  
Daljeet Singh ◽  
Antonella B. Francavilla ◽  
Simona Mancini ◽  
Claudio Guarnaccia

A vehicular road traffic noise prediction methodology based on machine learning techniques has been presented. The road traffic parameters that have been considered are traffic volume, percentage of heavy vehicles, honking occurrences and the equivalent continuous sound pressure level. Leq A method to include the honking effect in the traffic noise prediction has been illustrated. The techniques that have been used for the prediction of traffic noise are decision trees, random forests, generalized linear models and artificial neural networks. The results obtained by using these methods have been compared on the basis of mean square error, correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination and accuracy. It has been observed that honking is an important parameter and contributes to the overall traffic noise, especially in congested Indian road traffic conditions. The effects of honking noise on the human health cannot be ignored and it should be included as a parameter in the future traffic noise prediction models.


AIChE Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Wu ◽  
David Rincon ◽  
Junwei Luo ◽  
Panagiotis D. Christofides

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen-Inge Karstoft ◽  
Ioannis Tsamardinos ◽  
Kasper Eskelund ◽  
Søren Bo Andersen ◽  
Lars Ravnborg Nissen

BACKGROUND Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a relatively common consequence of deployment to war zones. Early postdeployment screening with the aim of identifying those at risk for PTSD in the years following deployment will help deliver interventions to those in need but have so far proved unsuccessful. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to test the applicability of automated model selection and the ability of automated machine learning prediction models to transfer across cohorts and predict screening-level PTSD 2.5 years and 6.5 years after deployment. METHODS Automated machine learning was applied to data routinely collected 6-8 months after return from deployment from 3 different cohorts of Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2009 (cohort 1, N=287 or N=261 depending on the timing of the outcome assessment), 2010 (cohort 2, N=352), and 2013 (cohort 3, N=232). RESULTS Models transferred well between cohorts. For screening-level PTSD 2.5 and 6.5 years after deployment, random forest models provided the highest accuracy as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): 2.5 years, AUC=0.77, 95% CI 0.71-0.83; 6.5 years, AUC=0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.83. Linear models performed equally well. Military rank, hyperarousal symptoms, and total level of PTSD symptoms were highly predictive. CONCLUSIONS Automated machine learning provided validated models that can be readily implemented in future deployment cohorts in the Danish Defense with the aim of targeting postdeployment support interventions to those at highest risk for developing PTSD, provided the cohorts are deployed on similar missions.


The Analyst ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 143 (9) ◽  
pp. 2066-2075 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Rong ◽  
A. V. Padron ◽  
K. J. Hagerty ◽  
N. Nelson ◽  
S. Chi ◽  
...  

We develop a simple, open source machine learning algorithm for analyzing impedimetric biosensor data using a mobile phone.


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