scholarly journals Hazard assessment of storm surges and concomitant waves in Shandong Peninsula based on long-term numerical simulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. 105888
Author(s):  
Ning Wang ◽  
Yijun Hou ◽  
Dongxue Mo ◽  
Jian Li
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Shandong Peninsula

Probabilistic Tephra Hazard Assessment of Campi Flegrei, Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz Martínez Montesinos ◽  
Manuel Titos ◽  
Laura Sandri ◽  
Sara Barsotti ◽  
Giovanni Macedonio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Numerical Code ◽  
Campi Flegrei ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Short And Long Term

<p>Campi Flegrei is an active volcano located in one of the most densely inhabited areas in Europe and under high-traffic air routes. There, the Vesuvius Observatory’s surveillance system, which continuously monitors volcanic seismicity, soil deformations and gas emissions, highlights some variations in the state of the volcanic activity. It is well known that fragmented magma injected into the atmosphere during an explosive volcanic eruption poses a threat to human lives and air-traffic. For this reason, powerful tools and computational resources to generate extensive and high-resolution hazard maps taking into account a wide spectrum of events, including those of low probability but high impact, are important to provide decision makers with quality information to develop short- and long- term emergency plans. To this end, in the framework of the Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE), we show the potential of HPC in Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment. On the one hand, using the ChEESE's flagship Fall3D numerical code and taking advance of the PRACE-awarded resources at CEA/TGCC-HPC facility in France, we perform thousands of simulations of tephra deposition and airborne ash concentration at different flight levels exploring the natural variability and uncertainty on the eruptive conditions on a 3D-grid covering a 2 km-resolution 2000 km x 2000 km computational domain. On the other hand, we create short- and long-term workflows, by updating current Bayesian-Event-Tree-Analysis-based prototype tools, to make them capable of analyze the large amount of information generated by the Fall3D simulations that finally gives rise to the hazard maps for Campi Flegrei.</p>

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF LONG TERM UNSATURATED FLOW AND ACID MINE DRAINAGE AT WASTE ROCK PILES

2006 ◽  
Vol 2006 (2) ◽  
pp. 582-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar Fala ◽  
John Molson ◽  
Michel Aubertin ◽  
Bruno Bussière ◽  
Robert P. Chapuis
Keyword(s):  
Acid Mine Drainage ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Unsaturated Flow ◽  
Mine Drainage ◽  
Waste Rock ◽  
Acid Mine ◽  
Waste Rock Piles

scholarly journals Relativistic Dynamical Stability Criterion of Multiplanet Systems with a Distant Companion

2021 ◽  
Vol 923 (1) ◽  
pp. 118
Author(s):  
Lingfeng Wei ◽  
Smadar Naoz ◽  
Thea Faridani ◽  
Will M. Farr
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Parameter Space ◽  
Stability Criterion ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Averaging Method ◽  
Orbital Parameter ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Analytical Stability ◽  
Analytical Criterion

Abstract Multiplanetary systems are prevalent in our Galaxy. The long-term stability of such systems may be disrupted if a distant inclined companion excites the eccentricity and inclination of the inner planets via the eccentric Kozai–Lidov mechanism. However, the star–planet and the planet–planet interactions can help stabilize the system. In this work, we extend the previous stability criterion that only considered the companion–planet and planet–planet interactions by also accounting for short-range forces or effects, specifically, relativistic precession induced by the host star. A general analytical stability criterion is developed for planetary systems with N inner planets and a relatively distant inclined perturber by comparing precession rates of relevant dynamical effects. Furthermore, we demonstrate as examples that in systems with two and three inner planets, the analytical criterion is consistent with numerical simulations using a combination of Gauss’s averaging method and direct N-body integration. Finally, the criterion is applied to observed systems, constraining the orbital parameter space of a possible undiscovered companion. This new stability criterion extends the parameter space in which an inclined companion of multiplanet systems can inhabit.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF WAVE LOAD ON THE LONG-TERM VEGETATION DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR RESISTANCE AS GRASS REVETMENTS ON SEA DIKES

2018 ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Jochen Michalzik ◽  
Sven Liebisch ◽  
Torsten Schlurmann
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Wave Load ◽  
Vegetation Development ◽  
Safety Standards ◽  
Wave Basin ◽  
Proper Design ◽  
Sea Dikes

Construction and design processes of revetments, sea dikes and estuarine dikes along the German coastline adhere the paradigm to protect and safeguard reliably the coastal hinterland from wave attack and storm surges. Following these standards coastal protection structures provide only poor ecosystem services in any proper design or maintenance approach. As a result, the EcoDike-project has been started with the aim to quantify and enhance the ecosystem services of revetments, sea dikes and estuarine dikes while preserving or possibly even enhancing the existing safety standards. Therefore, a profound understanding of the complex long-term interactions between wave load and vegetation development on sea dikes is inevitable. To achieve these objectives a typical seadike in prototype scale is tested under realistic and long-term wave loading in the new outdoor wave basin at the Ludwig-Franzius-Institute in Hannover (Germany).

scholarly journals TIME-VARYING EMULATOR FOR SHORT- AND LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COASTAL FLOODING (TESLA-FLOOD)

2018 ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
Dylan Anderson ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
Fernando J. Mendez ◽  
Ana Rueda ◽  
Jose A. Antolinez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Flooding Risk ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Flooding Events

The ability to predict coastal flooding events and associated impacts has emerged as a primary societal need within the context of projected sea level rise (SLR) and climate change. The duration and extent of flooding is the result of nonlinear interactions between multiple environmental forcings (oceanographic, meteorological, hydrological) acting at varying spatial (local to global) and temporal scales (hours to centuries). Individual components contributing to total water levels (TWLs) include astronomical tides, monthly sea level anomalies, storm surges, and wave setup. Common practices often use the observational record of extreme water levels to estimate return levels of future extremes. However, such projections often do not account for the individual contribution of processes resulting in compound TWL events, nor do they account for time-dependent probabilities due to seasonal, interannual, and long-term oscillations within the climate system. More robust estimates of coastal flooding risk require the computation of joint probabilities and the simulation of hypothetical TWLs to better constrain the projection of extremes (Serafin [2014]).

scholarly journals Still normal? Contextualizing real-time data with long-term statistics to monitor anomalies and systematic changes in storm surge activity – Introduction of a prototype web tool storm surge monitor for the German coasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Liu ◽  
Insa Meinke ◽  
Ralf Weisse
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Real Time Data

Abstract. Storm surges represent a major threat to many low-lying coastal areas in the world. While most places can cope with or are more or less adapted to present-day risks, future risks may increase from factors such as sea level rise, subsidence, or changes in storm activity. This may require further or alternative adaptation and strategies. For most places, both forecasts and real-time observations are available. However, analyses of long-term changes or recent severe extremes that are important for decision-making are usually only available sporadically or with substantial delay. In this paper, we propose to contextualize real-time data with long-term statistics to make such information publicly available in near real-time. We implement and demonstrate the concept of a ”storm surge monitor” for tide gauges along the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts. It provides automated near real-time assessments of the course and severity of the ongoing storm surge season and its single events. The assessment is provided in terms of storm surge height, frequency, duration, and intensity. It is proposed that such near real-time assessments provide added value to the public and decision-making. It is further suggested that the concept is transferable to other coastal regions threatened by storm surges.

scholarly journals A new view on the risk of typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 663-682
Author(s):  
Kelvin S. Ng ◽  
Gregor C. Leckebusch
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Crucial Importance ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Period Estimation ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Characteristics

Abstract. To study high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs) is of crucial importance due to their extraordinary destructive potential that leads to major losses in many coastal areas in the western North Pacific (WNP). Nevertheless, because of the rarity of high-impact TCs, it is difficult to construct a robust hazard assessment based on the historical best track records. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a computationally simple and efficient approach to build a physically consistent high-impact TC event set with non-realised TC events in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. This event set contains more than 10 000 years of TC events. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the new event set are consistent with the historical TC climatology in the WNP. It is shown that this TC event set contains ∼100 and ∼77 times more very severe typhoons and violent typhoons than the historical records, respectively. Furthermore, this approach can be used to improve the return-period estimation of TC-associated extreme wind. Consequently, a robust extreme TC hazard assessment, reflective of the current long-term climate variability phase, can be achieved using this approach.

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