scholarly journals TIME-VARYING EMULATOR FOR SHORT- AND LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF COASTAL FLOODING (TESLA-FLOOD)

2018 ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
Dylan Anderson ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
Fernando J. Mendez ◽  
Ana Rueda ◽  
Jose A. Antolinez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Flooding Risk ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Flooding Events

The ability to predict coastal flooding events and associated impacts has emerged as a primary societal need within the context of projected sea level rise (SLR) and climate change. The duration and extent of flooding is the result of nonlinear interactions between multiple environmental forcings (oceanographic, meteorological, hydrological) acting at varying spatial (local to global) and temporal scales (hours to centuries). Individual components contributing to total water levels (TWLs) include astronomical tides, monthly sea level anomalies, storm surges, and wave setup. Common practices often use the observational record of extreme water levels to estimate return levels of future extremes. However, such projections often do not account for the individual contribution of processes resulting in compound TWL events, nor do they account for time-dependent probabilities due to seasonal, interannual, and long-term oscillations within the climate system. More robust estimates of coastal flooding risk require the computation of joint probabilities and the simulation of hypothetical TWLs to better constrain the projection of extremes (Serafin [2014]).

scholarly journals PREDICTING EXTREME WATER LEVELS AROUND AUSTRALIA

2020 ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Charitha Pattiaratchi ◽  
Yasha Hetzel ◽  
Ivica Janekovic
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Development ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

Throughout history, coastal settlers have had to adapt to periodic coastal flooding. However, as a society we have become increasingly vulnerable to extreme water level events as our cities and our patterns of coastal development become more intricate, populated and interdependent. In addition to this, there is now a real and growing concern about rising sea levels. Accurate estimates of extreme water levels are therefore critical for coastal planning and emergency planning and response. The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels be accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This objectives of this study was to estimate present day extreme sea level exceedance probabilities due to combination of storm surges, tides and mean sea level (including wind-waves) around the coastline of Australia.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/vGaB85VRujs

scholarly journals EXTREME LEVELS ARISING FROM METEOROLOGICAL SURGES

1974 ◽  
Vol 1 (14) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ackers ◽  
T.D. Ruxton
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Independent Events ◽  
The North Sea

The design of coastal works depends on estimating the probabilities of extreme water levels, as well as of waves Previous studies of surge-affected levels have extrapolated observed annual maxima or the n highest levels in n years to predict rarer events In addition to using these well-established methods, m this study of tide levels on the Essex coast of Britain a long term record of extreme levels was synthesised by adding surge residuals at the time of predicted HW to predicted HW levels, treating them as statistically independent events Many more large surge residuals have been measured than extreme water levels as many surges are associated with small tides Events with return periods up to 1000 years may be estimated without extrapolating beyond the range of observed surge residuals and predicted tides This method is assessed in relation to previous methods and information relevant to the design of coastal works in the south western part of the North Sea was obtained In addition to forecasting the probabilities of high tide levels, the study included wave forecasts and the encounter probabilities of combinations of sea level and wave height for various aspects of coastal developments.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals The role of the reef–dune system in coastal protection in Puerto Morelos (Mexico)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1247-1260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma L. Franklin ◽  
Alec Torres-Freyermuth ◽  
Gabriela Medellin ◽  
María Eugenia Allende-Arandia ◽  
Christian M. Appendini
Keyword(s):  
Sand Dunes ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Dune System ◽  
Fore Reef ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Reef Environments ◽  
Storm Impact

Abstract. Reefs and sand dunes are critical morphological features providing natural coastal protection. Reefs dissipate around 90 % of the incident wave energy through wave breaking, whereas sand dunes provide the final natural barrier against coastal flooding. The storm impact on coastal areas with these features depends on the relative elevation of the extreme water levels with respect to the sand dune morphology. However, despite the importance of barrier reefs and dunes in coastal protection, poor management practices have degraded these ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to coastal flooding. The present study aims to theoretically investigate the role of the reef–dune system in coastal protection under current climatic conditions at Puerto Morelos, located in the Mexican Caribbean Sea, using a widely validated nonlinear non-hydrostatic numerical model (SWASH). Wave hindcast information, tidal level, and a measured beach profile of the reef–dune system in Puerto Morelos are employed to estimate extreme runup and the storm impact scale for current and theoretical scenarios. The numerical results show the importance of including the storm surge when predicting extreme water levels and also show that ecosystem degradation has important implications for coastal protection against storms with return periods of less than 10 years. The latter highlights the importance of conservation of the system as a mitigation measure to decrease coastal vulnerability and infrastructure losses in coastal areas in the short to medium term. Furthermore, the results are used to evaluate the applicability of runup parameterisations for beaches to reef environments. Numerical analysis of runup dynamics suggests that runup parameterisations for reef environments can be improved by including the fore reef slope. Therefore, future research to develop runup parameterisations incorporating reef geometry features (e.g. reef crest elevation, reef lagoon width, fore reef slope) is warranted.

scholarly journals The Role of Mean Sea Level Annual Cycle on Extreme Water Levels Along European Coastline

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3419
Author(s):  
Tomás Fernández-Montblanc ◽  
Jesús Gómez-Enri ◽  
Paolo Ciavola
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

The knowledge of extreme total water levels (ETWLs) and the derived impact, coastal flooding and erosion, is crucial to face the present and future challenges exacerbated in European densely populated coastal areas. Based on 24 years (1993–2016) of multimission radar altimetry, this paper investigates the contribution of each water level component: tide, surge and annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (MMSL) to the ETWLs. It focuses on the contribution of the annual variation of MMSL in the coastal flooding extreme events registered in a European database. In microtidal areas (Black, Baltic and Mediterranean Sea), the MMSL contribution is mostly larger than tide, and it can be at the same order of magnitude of the surge. In meso and macrotidal areas, the MMSL contribution is <20% of the total water level, but larger (>30%) in the North Sea. No correlation was observed between the average annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (AMMSL) and coastal flooding extreme events (CFEEs) along the European coastal line. Positive correlations of the component variance of MMSL with the relative frequency of CFEEs extend to the Central Mediterranean (r = 0.59), North Sea (r = 0.60) and Baltic Sea (r = 0.75). In the case of positive MMSL anomalies, the correlation expands to the Bay of Biscay and northern North Atlantic (at >90% of statistical significance). The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of a combination of all the components of the ETWLs shall improve the preparedness and coastal adaptation measures to reduce the impact of coastal flooding.

scholarly journals Long-term variability of storm surge frequency in the Venice Lagoon: an update thanks to 18th century sea level observations

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 527-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Raicich
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Remarkable Event

Abstract. Sea level observations made in the Venice Lagoon between 1751 and 1792 have been recovered, consisting of two time series of daily data on high and low waters in Venice and Chioggia. From comparisons with modern observations, the quality of the 18th century data appears to be good enough to allow a useful analysis. A composite time series of daily mean sea level is obtained by merging the 18th century data and 1872–2004 observations in Venice Punta della Salute. The absence of reliable information on vertical references prevents the connection of the two 18th century time series with each other and with modern observations. However, daily sea level anomalies relative to the mean sea level enable us to recognize storm surge events that appear to occur more frequently in the second half of the 18th century than in the late 19th and 20th centuries, particularly during the 1751–1769 period. The record-breaking storm surge of 4 November 1966 turns out to be a remarkable event even in comparison to the events extracted from the 18th century time series. Further work is required to fill the gap between the old and modern observations.

scholarly journals High accuracy coastal flood mapping for Norway using LiDAR data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Breili ◽  
Matthew James Ross Simpson ◽  
Erlend Klokkervold ◽  
Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Elevation Data

Abstract. Using new high accuracy Light Detection and Ranging elevation data we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Thus far, we have mapped ~ 80 % of the coast, for which we currently have data of sufficient accuracy to perform our analysis. Although Norway is generally at low risk from sea-level rise largely owing to its steep topography, the maps presented here show that on local scales, many parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. There is a considerable amount of infrastructure at risk along the relatively long and complicated coastline. Nationwide we identify a total area of 400 km2, 105,000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a 200 year storm-surge event at present. These numbers will increase to 610 km2, 137,000, and 1340 km with projected sea-level rise to 2090 (95th percentile of RCP8.5 as recommended in planning). We find that some of our results are likely biased high owing to erroneous mapping (at least for lower water levels close to the tidal datum which delineates the coastline). A comparison of control points from different terrain types indicates that the elevation model has a root mean square error of 0.26 m and is the largest source of uncertainty in our mapping method. The coastal flooding maps and associated statistics are freely available, and alongside the development of coastal climate services, will help communicate the risks of sea-level rise and storm surge to stakeholders. This will in turn aid coastal management and climate adaption work in Norway.

scholarly journals Relative Sea Level, Tides, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor From 1825 to 2018

2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (6) ◽  
pp. 3895-3914 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. Talke ◽  
A. C. Kemp ◽  
J. Woodruff
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Boston Harbor ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Water Levels

Supporting European coastal sectors to adapt to changes in extreme sea levels with climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea ◽  
Job Dullaart ◽  
Joao de Lima Rego ◽  
Kristine S. Madsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels

&lt;p&gt;Climate change will lead to increases in the flood risk in low-lying coastal areas. Understanding the magnitude and impact of such changes is vital to design adaptive strategies and create awareness. In&amp;#160; the&amp;#160; context&amp;#160; of&amp;#160; the&amp;#160; CoDEC&amp;#160; project&amp;#160; (Coastal&amp;#160; Dataset&amp;#160; for&amp;#160; Evaluation&amp;#160; of&amp;#160; Climate&amp;#160; impact),&amp;#160; we&amp;#160; developed a consistent European dataset of extreme sea levels, including climatic changes from 1979 to 2100. To simulate extreme sea levels, we apply the Global Tide and Surge Model v3.0 (GTSMv3.0), a 2D hydrodynamic model with global coverage. GTSM has a coastal resolution of 2.5 km globally and 1.25 km in Europe, and incorporates dynamic interactions between sea-level&amp;#160; rise,&amp;#160; tides&amp;#160; and&amp;#160; storm surges. Validation of the dataset shows a good performance with a mean bias of 0-.04 m for the 1 in 10-year water levels. When analyzing changes in extreme sea levels for the future climate scenarios, it is projected that by the end of the century the 1 in 10-year water levels are likely to increase up to 0.5 m. This change is largely driven by the increase in mean sea levels, although locally changes in storms surge and interaction with tides can amplify the impacts of sea-level rise with changes up to 0.2 m in the 1 in 10-year water level.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The CoDEC dataset will be made accessible through a web portal on Copernicus Climate Data Store (C3S). The dataset includes a set of Climate Impact Indicators (CII&amp;#8217;s) and new tools designed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on different sectors and industries. This data service will support European coastal sectors to adapt to changes in sea levels associated with climate change. In this presentation we will also demonstrate how the C3S coastal service can be used to enhance the understanding of local climate impacts.&lt;/p&gt;

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