Investigation on risk-informed uncertainty method and its application in PWR LBLOCA

2021 ◽  
Vol 139 ◽  
pp. 103876
Author(s):  
Qingwen Xiong ◽  
Peng Du ◽  
Jian Deng ◽  
Zhifang Qiu ◽  
Tao Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Method

scholarly journals Bernoulli Time Series Modelling with Application to Accommodation Tourism Demand

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Miguel Ángel Ruiz Reina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
Simulation And Training ◽  
Uncertainty Method ◽  
And Training ◽  
Hotel Accommodation

In this research, a new uncertainty method has been developed and applied to forecasting the hotel accommodation market. The simulation and training of Time Series data are from January 2001 to December 2018 in the Spanish case. The Log-log BeTSUF method estimated by GMM-HAC-Newey-West is considered as a contribution for measuring uncertainty vs. other prognostic models in the literature. The results of our model present better indicators of the RMSE and Ratio Theil’s for the predictive evaluation period of twelve months. Furthermore, the straightforward interpretation of the model and the high descriptive capacity of the model allow economic agents to make efficient decisions.

scholarly journals Visualization Research and Application of Uncertainty Method of Well Trajectory Based on ISCWSA Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 804 (2) ◽  
pp. 022060
Author(s):  
Hongyan Ma ◽  
Xiaoou Xu ◽  
Hongguo Xu ◽  
Xiaojian Song ◽  
Aibing Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Well Trajectory ◽  
Uncertainty Method

Uncertainty analysis of a delineated floodplain

1984 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward McBean ◽  
Jacques Penel ◽  
Kwok-Lui Siu
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Energy Equation ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Small Computer ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
The One ◽  
Floodplain Delineation ◽  
Uncertainty Method ◽  
The Given ◽  
Water Profile

The delineation of floodplains involves, in most circumstances, solving the one-dimensional energy equation. However, uncertainties in the identified floodplain arise from both computational and data uncertainties; data uncertainties are concluded to be generally more significant than computational uncertainties.A method is developed to calculate the uncertainty in floodplain delineation arising from data uncertainties. The proposed method requires only HEC-2 computer output and a small computer program. Application of the method to two case studies and comparison with another uncertainty method suggest that the proposed uncertainty theory is applicable to practical situations within the given constraints. Key words: data uncertainty, floodplain, uncertainty analysis, water profile computation.

The Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) Challenge in the Licensing of Current Generation of Reactors

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Petruzzi ◽  
N. Muellner ◽  
F. D’Auria ◽  
O. Mazzantini
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Computational Tools ◽  
Best Estimate ◽  
Safety Margins ◽  
Heavy Water Reactor ◽  
Key Steps ◽  
Uncertainty Method ◽  
Selection Of

Within the licensing process of the Atucha II PHWR (Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor) the BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) approach has been selected for issuing of the Chapter 15 on FSAR (Final Safety Analysis Report). The key steps of the entire process are basically two: a) the selection of PIE (Postulated Initiating Events) and, b) the analysis by best estimate models supported by uncertainty evaluation. Otherwise, key elements of the approach are: 1) availability of qualified computational tools including suitable uncertainty method; 2) demonstration of quality; 3) acceptability and endorsement by the licensing authority. The effort of issuing Chapter 15 is terminated at the time of issuing of the present paper and the safety margins available for the operation of the concerned NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) have been quantified.

Long term uncertainty method used to evaluate ICSI tritium laboratory’s proficiency test results

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Carmen Varlam ◽  
◽  
Irina Vagner ◽  
Ionut Faurescu ◽  
Denisa Faurescu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proficiency Test ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Uncertainty Method

Full modeling versus summarizing gene-tree uncertainty: Method choice and species-tree accuracy

2012 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 501-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Lacey Knowles ◽  
Hayley C. Lanier ◽  
Pavel B. Klimov ◽  
Qixin He
Keyword(s):  
Gene Tree ◽  
Species Tree ◽  
Method Choice ◽  
Uncertainty Method

scholarly journals Purwarupa Sistem Pakar dengan Mamdani Product untuk Menentukan Menu Harian Penderita DM

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Nur Hasanah ◽  
Retantyo Wardoyo
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Expert System ◽  
Inference Engine ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Menu Planning ◽  
Model Complex ◽  
Uncertainty Method ◽  
Management Expert ◽  
Diabetes Melitus

AbstrakPada 2025 diperkirakan 12,4 juta orang yang mengidap Diabetes Melitus (DM) di Indonesia. Perencanaan makan merupakan salah satu pilar dalam pengelolaan DM. Sistem pakar dapat berfungsi sebagai konsultan yang memberi saran kepada pengguna sekaligus sebagai asisten bagi pakar. Logika fuzzy fleksibel, memiliki kemampuan dalam proses penalaran secara bahasa dan memodelkan fungsi-fungsi matematika yang kompleks. Penelitian ini bertujuan menerapkan metode ketidakpastian logika fuzzy pada purwarupa sistem pakar untuk menentukan menu harian. Manfaat penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui keakuratan mesin inferensi Mamdani Product.            Pendekatan basis pengetahuan yang digunakan pada sistem pakar ini adalah dengan Rule-Based Reasoning. Proses inferensi pada sistem pakar menggunakan logika fuzzy dengan mesin inferensi Mamdani Product. Fuzzifier yang digunakan adalah Singleton sedangkan defuzzifier yang digunakan adalah Rata-Rata Terpusat. Penggunaan kombinasi Singleton fuzzifier, mesin inferensi Product dan defuzzifier Rata-Rata Terpusat yang digunakan pada sistem pakar dapat diterapkan untuk domain permasalahan yang dibahas. Meskipun demikian, terdapat kemungkinan Singleton fuzzifier tidak dapat memicu beberapa atau semua aturan. Jika semua aturan tidak dapat dipicu maka tidak dapat disimpulkan kebutuhan kalori hariannya. Kata kunci— sistem pakar, logika fuzzy, mamdani product, diabetes, menu  AbstractIt is predicted that 12.4 million people will suffer from Diabetes Mellitus (DM) in Indonesia in 2025. Menu planning is one of the important aspects in DM management. Expert system can be used as a consultant that gives suggestion to users as well as an assistant for experts. Fuzzy logic is flexible, has the ability in linguistic reasoning and can model complex mathemathical functions. This research aims to implement fuzzy logic uncertainty method into expert sistem prototype to determine diabetic daily menu. The advantage is to find out the accuracy of Mamdani Product inference engine. The knowledge-based approach in this expert system uses Rule-Based Reasoning. The inference process employs fuzzy logic making use of Mamdani Product inference engine. The fuzzifier used is Singleton while defuzzifier is Center Average.            The combination of Singleton fuzzifier, Mamdani Product inference engine and Center Average defuzzifier that is used can be applied in the domain of the problem under discussion. In spite of the case, there is possibility that Singleton fuzzifier can’t trigger some or all of the rules. If all of the rules can’t be triggered then the diabetic daily menu can’t be concluded. Keyword— expert system, fuzzy logic, mamdani product, diabetes, menu

Analysis of Automatic Depressurization System Stage 4 Valves Inadvertent Actuation Scenario for a Certain Passive Power Plant

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Lu ◽  
Jianhui Yu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Cooling System ◽  
Statistical Treatment ◽  
Local Maximum ◽  
Stage 4 ◽  
Passive Power ◽  
Core Cooling ◽  
Uncertainty Method ◽  
Made In

The automatic depressurization system (ADS) stage 4 valves inadvertent actuation scenario is one of the risk-significant cases in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis of passive power plant. Based on mini-ASTRUM (automated statistical treatment of uncertainty method) and CQD (code qualification document) method together, the calculation which utilizing WCOBRA/TRAC and HOTSPOT codes has been made in this paper. And the results indicate that, the calculated peak cladding temperature (PCT), local maximum oxidation (LMO), and core-wide oxidation (CWO) are all low enough, which meet the three design acceptance criteria defined in 10 CFR 50.46 emergency core cooling system (ECCS).

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