Benchmarking on railway safety performance using Bayesian inference, decision tree and petri-net techniques based on long-term accidental data sets

2021 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. 107684
Author(s):  
Panrawee Rungskunroch ◽  
Anson Jack ◽  
Sakdirat Kaewunruen
2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 58-69
Author(s):  
Marlene Kim

Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPIs) in the United States face problems of discrimination, the glass ceiling, and very high long-term unemployment rates. As a diverse population, although some Asian Americans are more successful than average, others, like those from Southeast Asia and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (NHPIs), work in low-paying jobs and suffer from high poverty rates, high unemployment rates, and low earnings. Collecting more detailed and additional data from employers, oversampling AAPIs in current data sets, making administrative data available to researchers, providing more resources for research on AAPIs, and enforcing nondiscrimination laws and affirmative action mandates would assist this population.


1993 ◽  
Vol 163 (4) ◽  
pp. 522-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Adams ◽  
R. E. Kendell ◽  
E. H. Hare ◽  
P. Munk-Jørgensen

The epidemiological evidence that the offspring of women exposed to influenza in pregnancy are at increased risk of schizophrenia is conflicting. In an attempt to clarify the issue we explored the relationship between the monthly incidence of influenza (and measles) in the general population and the distribution of birth dates of three large series of schizophrenic patients - 16 960 Scottish patients born in 1932–60; 22 021 English patients born in 1921–60; and 18 723 Danish patients born in 1911–65. Exposure to the 1957 epidemic of A2 influenza in midpregnancy was associated with an increased incidence of schizophrenia, at least in females, in all three data sets. We also confirmed the previous report of a statistically significant long-term relationship between patients' birth dates and outbreaks of influenza in the English series, with time lags of - 2 and - 3 months (the sixth and seventh months of pregnancy). Despite several other negative studies by ourselves and others we conclude that these relationships are probably both genuine and causal; and that maternal influenza during the middle third of intrauterine development, or something closely associated with it, is implicated in the aetiology of some cases of schizophrenia.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 164
Author(s):  
Chuyao Luo ◽  
Xutao Li ◽  
Yongliang Wen ◽  
Yunming Ye ◽  
Xiaofeng Zhang

The task of precipitation nowcasting is significant in the operational weather forecast. The radar echo map extrapolation plays a vital role in this task. Recently, deep learning techniques such as Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (ConvRNN) models have been designed to solve the task. These models, albeit performing much better than conventional optical flow based approaches, suffer from a common problem of underestimating the high echo value parts. The drawback is fatal to precipitation nowcasting, as the parts often lead to heavy rains that may cause natural disasters. In this paper, we propose a novel interaction dual attention long short-term memory (IDA-LSTM) model to address the drawback. In the method, an interaction framework is developed for the ConvRNN unit to fully exploit the short-term context information by constructing a serial of coupled convolutions on the input and hidden states. Moreover, a dual attention mechanism on channels and positions is developed to recall the forgotten information in the long term. Comprehensive experiments have been conducted on CIKM AnalytiCup 2017 data sets, and the results show the effectiveness of the IDA-LSTM in addressing the underestimation drawback. The extrapolation performance of IDA-LSTM is superior to that of the state-of-the-art methods.


2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marnus Stoltz ◽  
Boris Baeumer ◽  
Remco Bouckaert ◽  
Colin Fox ◽  
Gordon Hiscott ◽  
...  

Abstract We describe a new and computationally efficient Bayesian methodology for inferring species trees and demographics from unlinked binary markers. Likelihood calculations are carried out using diffusion models of allele frequency dynamics combined with novel numerical algorithms. The diffusion approach allows for analysis of data sets containing hundreds or thousands of individuals. The method, which we call Snapper, has been implemented as part of the BEAST2 package. We conducted simulation experiments to assess numerical error, computational requirements, and accuracy recovering known model parameters. A reanalysis of soybean SNP data demonstrates that the models implemented in Snapp and Snapper can be difficult to distinguish in practice, a characteristic which we tested with further simulations. We demonstrate the scale of analysis possible using a SNP data set sampled from 399 fresh water turtles in 41 populations. [Bayesian inference; diffusion models; multi-species coalescent; SNP data; species trees; spectral methods.]


2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (05) ◽  
pp. 1250048
Author(s):  
L. IORIO

We analytically work out the long-term orbital perturbations induced by the leading order of perturbing potential arising from the local modification of the Newton's inverse square law due to a topology ℝ2 × 𝕊1 with a compactified dimension of radius R recently proposed by Floratos and Leontaris. We neither restrict to any specific spatial direction [Formula: see text] for the asymmetry axis nor to particular orbital configurations of the test particle. Thus, our results are quite general. Nonvanishing long-term variations occur for all the usual osculating Keplerian orbital elements, apart from the semimajor axis which is left unaffected. By using recent improvements in the determination of the orbital motion of Saturn from Cassini data, we preliminarily inferred R ≳ 4-6 kau . As a complementary approach, the putative topological effects should be explicitly modeled and solved-for with a modified version of the ephemerides dynamical models with which the same data sets should be reprocessed.


2010 ◽  
Vol 90 (5) ◽  
pp. 755-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Tesfaendrias ◽  
M. R. McDonald ◽  
J. Warland

To identify carrot and onion cultivars that provide consistent marketable yields, we tracked the yields of five fresh market carrot [(Daucus carota L. subsp. sativus (Hoffm.) Arcang.] and six onion (Allium cepa L.) cultivars for at least 13 yr. Relationships between long-term weather variables and marketable yields were also investigated. The effects of cultivar, year and cultivar × year interactions on yield of carrots and onions were assessed. Cultivar and year had significant effects on carrot and onion yields, while the interaction was significant in only one of four data sets of carrot yield. Carrot cv. Cellobunch (95.4 t ha–1) and onion cv. Corona (74.1 t ha–1) had the highest mean marketable yields over the years studied. There was a slight positive correlation between mean yield of the assessed carrots and maximum temperatures in September (r = 0.44). Mean carrot yield was also somewhat negatively correlated with total rainfall in July (r = –0.43) and with number of days with rain in August (r = –0.43) and September (r = –0.44). Most onion cultivars showed stronger relationships between marketable yield and various weather patterns. Marketable yield of onions increased with an increase in the number of days with rainfall in June (r = 0.57). The mean marketable yield of the six onion cultivars decreased in relation to temperatures ≥30°C in June (r = –0.55) and August (r = –0.53). The mean yield of all the onions in the trials was negatively correlated (r = –0.78) with growing degree days (base 5°C, May to August). The results indicated that the data from long-term cultivar trials can be used to identify cultivars that yield well despite seasonal variations in weather. Key words: Daucus carota, Allium cepa, temperature, rainfall


2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constance L. Coogle ◽  
Iris A. Parham ◽  
Rita Jablonski ◽  
Jason A. Rachel

Changes in job satisfaction and career commitment were observed as a consequence of a geriatric case management training program focusing on skills development among personal care attendants in home care. A comparison of pretraining and posttraining scores uncovered a statistically significant increase in Intrinsic Job Satisfaction scores for participants 18–39 years of age, whereas levels declined among the group of middle aged participants and no change was observed among participants age 52 and older. On the other hand, a statistically significant decline in Extrinsic Job Satisfaction was documented over all participants, but this was found to be primarily due to declines among participants 40–51 years of age. When contacted 6–12 months after the training series had concluded, participants indicated that the training substantially increased the likelihood that they would stay in their current jobs and improved their job satisfaction to some extent. A comparison of pretraining and posttraining scores among participants providing follow-up data revealed a statistically significant improvement in levels of Career Resilience. These results are discussed as they relate to similar training models and national data sets, and recommendations are offered for targeting future educational programs designed to address the long-term care workforce shortage.


2002 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 169-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence W. Barnthouse ◽  
Douglas G. Heimbuch ◽  
Vaughn C. Anthony ◽  
Ray W. Hilborn ◽  
Ransom A. Myers

We evaluated the impacts of entrainment and impingement at the Salem Generating Station on fish populations and communities in the Delaware Estuary. In the absence of an agreed-upon regulatory definition of “adverse environmental impact” (AEI), we developed three independent benchmarks of AEI based on observed or predicted changes that could threaten the sustainability of a population or the integrity of a community.Our benchmarks of AEI included: (1) disruption of the balanced indigenous community of fish in the vicinity of Salem (the “BIC” analysis); (2) a continued downward trend in the abundance of one or more susceptible fish species (the “Trends” analysis); and (3) occurrence of entrainment/impingement mortality sufficient, in combination with fishing mortality, to jeopardize the future sustainability of one or more populations (the “Stock Jeopardy” analysis).The BIC analysis utilized nearly 30 years of species presence/absence data collected in the immediate vicinity of Salem. The Trends analysis examined three independent data sets that document trends in the abundance of juvenile fish throughout the estuary over the past 20 years. The Stock Jeopardy analysis used two different assessment models to quantify potential long-term impacts of entrainment and impingement on susceptible fish populations. For one of these models, the compensatory capacities of the modeled species were quantified through meta-analysis of spawner-recruit data available for several hundred fish stocks.All three analyses indicated that the fish populations and communities of the Delaware Estuary are healthy and show no evidence of an adverse impact due to Salem. Although the specific models and analyses used at Salem are not applicable to every facility, we believe that a weight of evidence approach that evaluates multiple benchmarks of AEI using both retrospective and predictive methods is the best approach for assessing entrainment and impingement impacts at existing facilities.


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