The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk in Irish catchments to the range of IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios

Climate change has increased pluvial flood risks in cities around the world. To mitigate floods, pluvial risk maps with climate change scenarios have been developed to help major urban areas adapt to a changing climate. In some cases, subnational governments have played a key role to develop these maps. However, governance research about the role of subnational governments in geospatial data development in urban water transitions has received little attention. To address this gap, this research applies the Governance Assessment Tool as an evaluative framework to increase our understanding of the governance factors that support the development of pluvial flood risk maps at the subnational level. For this research, we selected the region of Flanders in Belgium. This region is considered among the frontrunners when it comes to the creation of a pluvial flood risk map with climate change scenarios. Data have been collected through in-depth interviews with steering committee actors involved in the development process of the map. The research identified that the current governance context is supportive of the creation of the flood risk map. The government of Flanders plays a key role in this process. The most supportive qualities of the governance context are those related to the degree of fragmentation (extent and coherence), while the less supportive ones are those related to the “quest for control” (flexibility and intensity). Under this governance context, government actors play the primary role. The Flemish government led the maps’ creation process and it was supported by the lower governmental levels. As the provincial government was an important actor to increase local participation, collaboration with private and non-governmental actors in the steering committee was more limited. The financial resources were also limited and the process required a continuous development of trust. Yet, the Flemish Environmental Agency, with the use of technology, was able to increase such trust during the process.

Download Full-text

Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2005gl023401 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 32 (17) ◽

Cited By ~ 50

Author(s):

R. E. Benestad

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Northern Europe ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Ipcc Ar4

Download Full-text

Market shares for insurance against flood risk under different climate change scenarios

Managing Extreme Climate Change Risks through Insurance ◽

10.1017/cbo9781139519540.013 ◽

2013 ◽

pp. 341-371

Author(s):

W. J. Wouter Botzen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Market Shares

Download Full-text

Quantifying the Uncertainty Related to Climate Change in the Assessment of Urban Flooding—A Case Study

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102072 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2072

Author(s):

Liuzzo ◽

Freni

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Southern Italy ◽

Water Cycle ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Urban Catchment ◽

Flood Susceptibility ◽

Rainfall Variations ◽

Flooding Events

Recent studies have pointed out that climate change is likely to have important implications on the extent and frequency of flooding events. Indeed, the intensification of the water cycle occurring in different areas of the world can dramatically affect the incidence of extreme events and, consequently, the flow in rivers or artificial channels, increasing the probability of disastrous floods. In this context, the criteria for the assessment of flood risk need to be improved to take into account the variability of rainfall due to climate change. In this study, a Bayesian procedure was used to update the parameters of the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) curves and quantify the uncertainty related to their assessment in some climate change scenarios. The critical storm obtained from these updated DDF curves was used as input for the FLO-2D hydraulic model, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on flood risk. The area of study was an urban catchment in Piazza Armerina, a small town located in Southern Italy. Results showed that rainfall variations remarkably affect not only the magnitude of flood events, but also the flood susceptibility of the study area.

Download Full-text

Stochastic Flood Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenarios for Toronto, Canada Using CAPRA

Water ◽

10.3390/w14020227 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 227

Author(s):

Daniela Rincón ◽

Juan Felipe Velandia ◽

Ioannis Tsanis ◽

Usman T. Khan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Social Impacts ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Flood Risk Assessment ◽

Short Term ◽

Modeling Approach

Amongst all natural disasters, floods have the greatest economic and social impacts worldwide, and their frequency is expected to increase due to climate change. Therefore, improved flood risk assessment is important for implementing flood mitigation measures in urban areas. The increasing need for quantifying the impacts of flooding have resulted in the development of methods for flood risk assessment. The aim of this study was to quantify flood risk under climate change scenarios in the Rockcliffe area within the Humber River watershed in Toronto, Canada, by using the Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) method. CAPRA is a platform for stochastic disaster risk assessment that allows for the characterization of uncertainty in the underlying numerical models. The risk was obtained by integrating the (i) flood hazard, which considered future rainfall based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for three time periods (short-term: 2020–2049, medium-term: 2040–2069, and long-term: 2070–2099); (ii) exposed assets within a flood-prone region; (iii) vulnerability functions, which quantified the damage to an asset at different hazard levels. The results revealed that rainfall intensities are likely to increase during the 21st century in the study area, leading to an increase in flood hazards, higher economic costs, and social impacts for the majority of the scenarios. The highest impacts were found for the climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the long-term period and the lowest for RCP 4.5 for the short-term period. The results from this modeling approach can be used for planning purposes in a floodplain management study. The modeling approach identifies critical areas that need to be protected to mitigate future flood risks. Higher resolution climate change and field data are needed to obtain detailed results required for a final design that will mitigate these risks.

Download Full-text

Inequities in the distribution of flood risk under floodplain restoration and climate change scenarios

People and Nature ◽

10.1002/pan3.10290 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Jesse D. Gourevitch ◽

Rebecca M. Diehl ◽

Beverley C. Wemple ◽

Taylor H. Ricketts

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Floodplain Restoration

Download Full-text

Flood Risk Characterization of Highly Flood-prone Data Scarce Region under Changing Climate

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1078 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Aditya Gusain ◽

Naveen Sudharsan ◽

Subhankar Karmakar ◽

Subimal Ghosh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Indian Subcontinent ◽

Eastern Coast ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Changing Climate ◽

Risk Framework ◽

The Impact

<p>It is evident that changes in climate alter the incidence of hydro-climatic extreme events, specifically floods, which are likely to cause irreparable socio-economic and ecological damages. With a 7,516 km coastline that is prone to climate-mediated disturbances and cyclones, the eastern coast of the Indian subcontinent is comparatively more vulnerable to the changing climate and land use with higher incidences of extensive flooding. Therefore, the policy-makers and decision-making authorities are dependent on the scientific community to provide reliable estimates of hydro-meteorological variables for simulating extreme events under the impact of climate change. However, a comprehensive flood risk framework at a finer administrative level is not yet available under the Indian scenario that assesses the changing dynamics and complexities of different components of climatic risk (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure). The present study attempts to demonstrate a proposed framework of flood risk assessment for a highly flood-prone deltaic region of Mahanadi River Basin, India, under climate change scenarios for near-future (the 2040s) at present-day vulnerability and exposure status. It was noted that changes in future flood risk are highly influenced by the vulnerability and exposure status of the region. Lower vulnerability and exposure in coastal sub-districts reduces the overall risk even if a higher flood hazard is observed. Under both future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the number of villages under high hazard zones with greater flood magnitude has increased. Therefore, it thrusts upon the need to adopt stringent actions for devising better adaptation strategies and sustainable planning which can aid in lowering the vulnerability of the region to future floods.</p>

Download Full-text

Tidal flood area mapping in the face of climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary in the Brazilian semi-arid region

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-21-3353-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (11) ◽

pp. 3353-3366

Author(s):

Paulo Victor N. Araújo ◽

Venerando E. Amaro ◽

Leonlene S. Aguiar ◽

Caio C. Lima ◽

Alexandre B. Lopes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Arid Region ◽

Risk Mapping ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Management Actions ◽

The Face ◽

Semi Arid Region ◽

Semi Arid

Abstract. Previous studies on tidal flood mapping are mostly through continental- and/or global-scale approaches. Moreover, the few works on local-scale perception are concentrated in Europe, Asia, and North America. Here, we present a case study approaching a tidal flood risk mapping application in the face of climate change scenarios in a region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study site is an estuarine cut in the Brazilian semi-arid region, covering part of two state conservation units, which has been suffering severe consequences from tidal flooding in recent years. In this case study, we used high-geodetic-precision data (lidar DEM), together with robust tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios. We found that approximately 327.60 km2 of the estuary is under tidal flood risk and in need of mitigation measures. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions, as well as a model for applying risk mapping in other coastal areas.

Download Full-text