Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations

AbstractExtreme waves will undergo changes in the future when exposed to different climate change scenarios. These changes are evaluated through the analysis of significant wave height (Hs) return values and are also compared with annual mean Hs projections. Hourly time series are analyzed through a seven-member ensemble of wave climate simulations and changes are estimated in Hs for return periods from 5 to 100 years by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Despite the underlying uncertainty that characterizes extremes, we obtain robust changes in extreme Hs over more than approximately 25% of the ocean surface. The results obtained conclude that increases cover wider areas and are larger in magnitude than decreases for higher return periods. The Southern Ocean is the region where the most robust increase in extreme Hs is projected, showing local increases of over 2 m regardless the analyzed return period under RCP8.5 scenario. On the contrary, the tropical north Pacific shows the most robust decrease in extreme Hs, with local decreases of over 1.5 m. Relevant divergences are found in several ocean regions between the projected behavior of mean and extreme wave conditions. For example, an increase in Hs return values and a decrease in annual mean Hs is found in the SE Indian, NW Atlantic and NE Pacific. Therefore, an extrapolation of the expected change in mean wave conditions to extremes in regions presenting such divergences should be adopted with caution, since it may lead to misinterpretation when used for the design of marine structures or in the evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion.

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Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alizée Chemison ◽

Gilles Ramstein ◽

Adrian M. Tompkins ◽

Dimitri Defrance ◽

Guigone Camus ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Malaria Transmission ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Transmission Risk ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Change Risk ◽

System A ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

The Impact

AbstractStudies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

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Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-010-0955-3 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 38 (1-2) ◽

pp. 189-208 ◽

Cited By ~ 84

Author(s):

S. C. Pryor ◽

R. J. Barthelmie ◽

N. E. Clausen ◽

M. Drews ◽

N. MacKellar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Northern Europe ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Wind Speeds ◽

Extreme Wind ◽

Extreme Wind Speeds

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The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk in Irish catchments to the range of IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.08.042 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 409 (24) ◽

pp. 5403-5415 ◽

Cited By ~ 35

Author(s):

Satish Bastola ◽

Conor Murphy ◽

John Sweeney

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ipcc Ar4

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Geodetic Landmarks Soil Loss Susceptibility Using RUSLE and Climate Change Scenarios

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1196845/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Leonard Niero da Silveira ◽

Víctor Fernandez Nascimento ◽

Fernanda Casagrande ◽

Sergio Florencio de Souza ◽

Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Loss ◽

Urban Infrastructure ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Earth’S Gravity Field ◽

Maximum Value ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Almost All ◽

Support Decision Making

Abstract Geodetic landmarks (GLs) are essential for obtaining the precise height, horizontal coordinates, and the Earth's gravity field. Once physically implanted on the surface, they are susceptible to movement and displacement. This study aims to assess the soil susceptibility of GLs for past and future scenarios through the Revised Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). So the soil loss estimations were made for the GLs in Brazil's southern Santa Catarina region. Our results showed average soil loss values, reaching 175915 t/ha/year, while the GLs were 2109 t/ha/year. There was an increase in GLs in the null class, mainly caused by urban infrastructure increase. At the same time, a decrease occurred in the low, very severe, severe, and moderate classes. In contrast, for future scenarios, an increase in the GLs average soil loss was found until 2100. However, it is essential to highlight that the most relevant increase occurred in the 2021-2040 period. After that, some scenarios as ssp126 remained stable, ssp245 and ssp370 slightly increased while ssp585 increased the most, reaching a maximum value of 2364 t/ha/year until 2100. There are a stability in the null class with a little decreasing in the low and moderate classes. In severe and very severe classes, there are a increase in the almost all scenarios. This behavior take account only the rainfall, thus for a better analysis, would be necessary the forecast of land cover change. Therefore, the climate simulations can be used to understand the effects of climate change on soil erosion to support decision-making.

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Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2006gl025759 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 33 (13) ◽

Cited By ~ 175

Author(s):

Carolina Vera ◽

Gabriel Silvestri ◽

Brant Liebmann ◽

Paula González

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South America ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Seasonal Precipitation ◽

Ipcc Ar4

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A dynamical and thermodynamic mechanism to explain heavy snowfalls in current and future climate over Italy during cold spells

10.5194/esd-2020-61 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Miriam D'Errico ◽

Pascal Yiou ◽

Cesare Nardini ◽

Frank Lunkeit ◽

Davide Faranda

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Cold Weather ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Documentary Sources ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

Weather Events ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Winter Temperatures ◽

Thermodynamic Mechanism

Abstract. Cold and snowy spells are compound extreme events that have many societal impacts. Insight on their dynamics in climate change scenarios could help adaptation. We focus on winter cold and snowy spells over Italy, reconstructing 32 major events in the past 60 years from documentary sources. We show that despite warmer winter temperatures, some recent cold spells show abundant, sometimes exceptional snowfall amounts. In order to explain these compound phenomena, we perform ensembles of climate simulations in fixed emission scenarios changing boundary conditions (such sea–surface temperature, SST) and detect analogs of observed events. Our results show that the response of extreme cold weather events to climate change is not purely thermodynamic nor linked to the global average temperature increase, but crucially depends on the interactions of the atmospheric circulation at mid-latitudes with the thermodynamic feedback from warmer Mediterranean temperatures. This suggests how Mediterranean countries like Italy could observe large snowfall amounts even in warmer climates.

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