Quantitative decision making for a groundwater monitoring and subsurface contamination early warning network

2019 ◽  
Vol 683 ◽  
pp. 498-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huishu Li ◽  
Jianli Gu ◽  
Asma Hanif ◽  
Ashwin Dhanasekar ◽  
Kenneth Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Groundwater Monitoring ◽  
Subsurface Contamination

scholarly journals Three-Phase-Based Approach to Develop a River Health Prediction and Early Warning System to Guide River Management

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (19) ◽  
pp. 4163
Author(s):  
Yongming Chen ◽  
Jihong Xia ◽  
Wangwei Cai ◽  
Zhilin Sun ◽  
Chuanbing Dou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
River System ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Health Index ◽  
River Health ◽  
Phase Approach ◽  
Three Phase

To effectively manage a river system, systematic tracking and diagnosing the change and risks of a river system are essentially required to efficiently conserve or restore its conditions. Hence, this study focuses on how to integrate current status assessment, trend prediction, and cause diagnosis in river health to guide early warning decision-making in river protection and management. This study has presented a three-phase approach by coupling spatial with nonspatial information in a highly systematic and reliable way, and an early warning system has been designed. In phase I, the current health status is assessed and nowcasted by using the order degree of each indicator. In phase II, health predictors, including the single perspective-based health index (HI) (e.g., water quality index (WQI) and index of biotic integrity (IBI)) and multi-perspective-based health index, have been forecasted under normal conditions or emerging conditions using predictive models. In phase III, key causal factors threatening the river health have been identified to enable early notification and to address unexpected events before occurrence. Although different modeling methods can be used in each phase to demonstrate this concept, we tested the model of partial least square regression (PLSR) associated with time series. Additionally, the three-phase approach has been integrated with geographic information system (GIS) and a decision support system (DSS) to develop a river health prediction and early warning system (RHP-EWS), an automatic prediction and decision-making tool. This tool was implemented to deal with the landing of typhoon “Maria” in 2018 into the Shanxi River watershed in China. Because of the timely responses and decisions, the drinking water supply was not influenced. However, the models should be extended to other river systems for testing and improvement at different temporal or spatial scales.

scholarly journals Communication Structures and Decision Making Cues and Criteria to Support Effective Drought Warning in Central Malawi

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexia Calvel ◽  
Micha Werner ◽  
Marc van den Homberg ◽  
Andrés Cabrera Flamini ◽  
Ileen Streefkerk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Sudden Onset ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Early Action

Early warning systems trigger early action and enable better disaster preparedness. People-centered dissemination and communication are pivotal for the effective uptake of early warnings. Current research predominantly focuses on sudden-onset hazards, such as floods, ignoring considerable differences with slow-onset hazards, such as droughts. We identify the essential factors contributing to effective drought dissemination and communication using the people-centered approach advocated in the WMOs Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Framework (MHEWS). We use semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and focus group discussions with small-scale farmers in the Mangochi and Salima Districts of Malawi. We show that the timely release of seasonal forecast, the tailoring of the drought warning content (and its timing) to agricultural decision making, and the provision of several dissemination channels enhance trust and improve uptake of drought warning information by farmers. Our analysis demonstrates that farmers seek, prepare, and respond to drought warning information when it is provided as advice on agricultural practices, rather than as weather-related information. The information was found to be useful where it offers advice on the criteria and environmental cues that farmers can use to inform their decisions in a timely manner. Based on our findings, we propose that by focusing on enhancing trust, improving information uptake and financial sustainability as key metrics, the MHEWS can be adapted for use in monitoring the effectiveness of early warning systems.

scholarly journals The Early Warning System and policymaking in the European Union

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 451-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe van Gruisen ◽  
Martijn Huysmans
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
European Union ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Relevant Aspect ◽  
Yellow Card ◽  
National Parliaments

Does the Early Warning System alert the European Commission about the prospects of passing new policy? We present a model of European Union policymaking in which the Early Warning System plays an important signalling role. In our model, the Commission uses signals from the Early Warning System to update its belief about governments’ voting strategies in the Council. The Commission may then anticipate difficult negotiations by withdrawing its proposal early. We find empirical evidence for our theory: (1) reasoned opinions submitted by national parliaments strongly predict opposition from their governments and (2) the Commission is more likely to withdraw proposals that receive reasoned opinions, even in the absence of a yellow card. Our results run counter to the dominant view in the literature that the Early Warning System is not a very relevant aspect of EU decision-making. Instead, reasoned opinions constitute a clear signal that negotiations are more likely to fail.

Architecture and Key Technologies of Intelligent Dispatching Based on Situational Awareness

2013 ◽  
Vol 448-453 ◽  
pp. 2259-2265
Author(s):  
Sheng Chun Yang ◽  
Bi Qiang Tang ◽  
Jian Guo Yao ◽  
Feng Li ◽  
Yi Jun Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Human Computer Interaction ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Knowledge Mining ◽  
Grid Operation

With the construction of UHV power grid, integration of large-scale renewable clean energy, and large-scale energy base putting into operation, the power grid dispatching faced with more and more complex challenges. On the basis of existing research results, architecture of intelligent dispatching based on situation awareness is proposed, so as to accurately achieve prevention and control of the power system. The shortcomings of traditional dispatching mode are analyzed firstly, and the concepts and characterization approaches of grid situational awareness and operation state trajectory of power grid are then introduced. The overall objective of intelligent dispatching is presented, including data processing and integrated knowledge mining, predictive perception of grid operation, risk analysis and comprehensive early warning, so as to achieve "automatic cruise under normal operating conditions, automatic navigation under abnormal operating conditions ". The functional framework of intelligent dispatching is also proposed in details, including four major aspects of the perception and forecasts, risk analysis, decision-making support, and automatic control, as well as three supporting functions such as post-assessment of dispatching, trajectory index calculation, and human-computer interaction (HCI).Technical innovations to support automatic intelligent dispatching are discussed and organised in three levels, i.e. perception, comprehension and projection. The breakthroughs are: construction of index system, trajectory recognition based on massive information and knowledge mining, trajectory projection taking into accounts the uncertainties, online risk assessment and early warning, power grid intelligent decision-making support, automatic coordination of grid operation control, online assessment, natural human-computer interaction mode, and etc... These are the future research areas of automatic intelligent dispatching.

A Systematic Review of the Factors Affecting the Cyclone Evacuation Decision Process in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 742-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Nasif Ahsan ◽  
◽  
Kuniyoshi Takeuchi ◽  
Karina Vink ◽  
Miho Ohara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Warning Messages

Researchers are investigating a broad spectrum of factors affecting positively and/or negatively the evacuation decision-making process occurring after people at risk receive cyclone warnings and advisories. Previous studies suggest that early warnings themselves do not propagate evacuation processes to be investigated but, rather, that human risk perceptions do so. This in turn encourages the sociopsychological dimensions of risk perception to be evaluated, which must be done within a country’s own cultural context. In applying content analysis here, we review the literature on evacuation decision-making processes during rapidonset hazards, i.e., tropical cyclones, in coastal Bangladesh. We focus on three broad overlapping themes – early warning, risk perception, and evacuation decision-making. Major content-analysis findings suggest that two things – a lack of credibility in early warning messages and an inefficient dissemination process – tend to affect the risk perception of people at risk and are likely to eventually determine the success of evacuation decision-making. Findings also show that different socioeconomic and socio-cultural issues related to risk perception appear to be more influential than formal warning messages in propagating decisions to evacuate during a cyclone. Based on these results, we suggest specific policy recommendations for improving local evacuation efficiency.

scholarly journals Applying the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) to assess geriatric patients in home care settings: A qualitative study of nurses’ and general practitioners’ experiences

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristin Jeppestøl ◽  
Marit Kirkevold ◽  
Line Kildal Bragstad
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Home Care ◽  
General Practitioners ◽  
Clinical Reasoning ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Geriatric Patients ◽  
Functional Decline ◽  
Clinical Syndrome ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Design Data

Abstract Background: Acute functional decline is a common clinical syndrome in geriatric health care that is typically characterised by nonspecific symptoms and presents with a mix of physical, psychological, social and functional manifestations.Early warning score (EWS) systems are widely implemented in nursing homes and home care to detect clinical deterioration. The effects of EWS systems have been thoroughly evaluated in hospital care settings, but few studies have evaluated these systems in community health care.The purpose of this study is to describe the experiences of registered nurses (RNs) and general practitioners (GPs) when using the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) to support clinical reasoning and decision-making with geriatric home care patients who suffer from acute functional decline.Method: A qualitative methodology was used with a descriptive exploratory design. Data were collected from seven focus group interviews. GPs and RNs were purposively sampled from large, medium and small municipalities in Norway. Data were analysed using an inductive content analysis method.Results: MEWS was used as an additional decision-making tool with elderly home care patients when acute functional decline was detected. RNs and GPs emphasised that MEWS supported the clinical reasoning and decision-making process. Additionally, those applying MEWS required comprehensive reasoning skills and specific knowledge of the patients. RNs identified the need for contextual adjustments to the use of MEWS in home care settings. Implementing MEWS has improved the collaboration and clinical practice of RNs and GPs. The adherence to MEWS follow-up recommendations was adjusted to the home care setting, accounting for potentially limited medical availability.Conclusion: MEWS supported RNs and GPs in conducting comprehensive clinical assessments and reasoning when acute functional decline was detected. Interdisciplinary communication and collaboration appeared to be strengthened, and GPs’ work was streamlined. Several limitations were identified with the use of MEWS reference values with geriatric patients, which could lead to ambiguity and misjudgements. MEWS trigger recommendations were experienced as inappropriate in the home care context. This study identifies the need for a modified, evidence-based EWS adjusted for geriatric patients in home care.

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