Respiration of Russian soils: climatic drivers and response to climate change

The Southern Ocean plays an important role in the uptake, transport and storage of carbon by the global oceans. These properties are dominated by the response to the rise in anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, but they are modulated by climate variability and climate change. Here we explore the effect of climate variability and climate change on ocean carbon uptake and storage in the Southern Ocean. We assess the extent to which climate change may be distinguishable from the anthropogenic CO2 signal and from the natural background variability. We use a combination of biogeochemical ocean modelling and observations from the GLODAPv2020 database to detect climate fingerprints in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC).We conduct an ensemble of hindcast model simulations of the period 1920-2019, using a global ocean biogeochemical model which incorporates plankton ecosystem dynamics based on twelve plankton functional types. We use the model ensemble to isolate the changes in DIC due to rising anthropogenic CO2 alone and the changes due to climatic drivers (both climate variability and climate change), to determine their relative roles in the emerging total DIC trends and patterns. We analyse these DIC trends for a climate fingerprint over the past four decades, across spatial scales from the Southern Ocean, to basin level and down to regional ship transects. Highly sampled ship transects were extracted from GLODAPv2020 to obtain locations with the maximum spatiotemporal coverage, to reduce the inherent biases in patchy observational data. Model results were sampled to the ship transects to compare the climate fingerprints directly to the observational data.Model results show a substantial change in DIC over a 35-year period, with a range of more than +/- 30 &#181;mol/L. In the surface ocean, both anthropogenic CO2 and climatic drivers act to increase DIC concentration, with the influence of anthropogenic CO2 dominating at lower latitudes and the influence of climatic drivers dominating at higher latitudes. In the deep ocean, the anthropogenic CO2 generally acts to increase DIC except in the subsurface waters at lower latitudes, while climatic drivers act to decrease DIC concentration. The combined fingerprint of anthropogenic CO2 and climatic drivers on DIC concentration is for an increasing trend at the surface and decreasing trends in low latitude subsurface waters. Preliminary comparison of the model fingerprints to observational ship transects will also be presented.

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Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change

Annual Review of Environment and Resources ◽

10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 46 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Halvard Buhaug ◽

Nina von Uexkull

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Armed Conflict ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Annual Review ◽

Publication Date ◽

Economic Prosperity ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Humanitarian Crises ◽

Climatic Drivers ◽

Conflict Risk

Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen have harbored severe humanitarian crises, compounded by climate-related hazards. These cases epitomize the powerful but presently incompletely appreciated links between vulnerability, conflict, and climate-related impacts. In this article, we develop a unified conceptual model of these phenomena by connecting three fields of research that traditionally have had little interaction: ( a) determinants of social vulnerability to climate change, ( b) climatic drivers of armed conflict risk, and ( c) societal impacts of armed conflict. In doing so, we demonstrate how many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate–conflict interactions and, furthermore, that impacts from armed conflict aggravate these conditions. The end result may be a vicious circle locking affected societies in a trap of violence, vulnerability, and climate change impacts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 46 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

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Multiple non-climatic drivers of food insecurity reinforce climate change maladaptation trajectories among Peruvian Indigenous Shawi in the Amazon

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0205714 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

pp. e0205714 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Carol Zavaleta ◽

Lea Berrang-Ford ◽

James Ford ◽

Alejandro Llanos-Cuentas ◽

César Cárcamo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Insecurity ◽

Climatic Drivers

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Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

Global Change Biology ◽

10.1111/gcb.13653 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 23 (7) ◽

pp. 2537-2553 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Helen R. Sofaer ◽

Joseph J. Barsugli ◽

Catherine S. Jarnevich ◽

John T. Abatzoglou ◽

Marian K. Talbert ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Climatic Drivers ◽

Change Impact

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Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0138013 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. e0138013 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Antonius G. T. Schut ◽

Eva Ivits ◽

Jacob G. Conijn ◽

Ben ten Brink ◽

Rasmus Fensholt

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Vegetation Activity ◽

Climatic Drivers ◽

Global Vegetation

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Accumulated Heating and Chilling Are Important Drivers of Forest Phenology and Productivity in the Algonquin-to-Adirondacks Conservation Corridor of Eastern North America

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12030282 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 282

Author(s):

Michael A. Stefanuk ◽

Ryan K. Danby

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North America ◽

Annual Variation ◽

Forest Growth ◽

Eastern North America ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Climate Data ◽

Random Forest Regression ◽

Recent Climate ◽

Climatic Drivers

Research Highlights: Forest phenology and productivity were responsive to seasonal heating and chilling accumulation, but responses differed across the temperature range. Background and Objectives: Temperate forests have responded to recent climate change worldwide, but the pattern and magnitude of response have varied, necessitating additional studies at higher spatial and temporal resolutions. We investigated climatic drivers of inter-annual variation in forest phenology and productivity across the Algonquin-to-Adirondacks (A2A) conservation corridor of eastern North America. Methods: We used remotely sensed indices from the AVHRR sensor series and a suite of gridded climate data from the Daymet database spanning from 1989–2014. We used random forest regression to characterize forest–climate relationships between forest growth indices and climatological variables. Results: A large portion of the annual variation in phenology and productivity was explained by climate (pR2 > 80%), with variation largely driven by accumulated heating and chilling degree days. Only very minor relationships with precipitation-related variables were evident. Conclusions: Our results indicate that anthropogenic climate change in the A2A has not yet reached the point of triggering widespread changes in forest phenology and productivity, but the sensitivity of forest growth to inter-annual variation in seasonal temperature accumulation suggests that more temperate forest area will be affected by climate change as warming continues.

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Quantifying sensitivity and exposure of multiple ecosystem services to climate change: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12215 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ting Hua ◽

Wenwu Zhao ◽

Paulo Pereira

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Spatial Association ◽

Future Climate ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Emission Pathway ◽

Climatic Drivers ◽

Qinghai Tibet Plateau

&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Global warming has imposed a positive or adverse impact on ecosystem services and it will be further amplified in vulnerable areas like Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, there is a limited understanding of spatial interaction among ecosystem services and their climatic drivers at a fine resolution, regardless of the historical or future periods. This study attempted to fill this gap by detecting sensitivity and exposure of ecosystem services to climate change based on spatial moving window method, combined with Modis-based satellite datasets and various future scenarios dataset. We found that Carbon Sequence and Oxygen Production (CSOP) and habitat quality experienced significant growth, while water retention (WR) showed a fluctuation trend on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. For CSOP, 56.94% of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, which is nearly twice the ones with negative sensitivity (26.72%). And there is an evident positive sensitivity between WR and precipitation. Also, there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes. A high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5) increases the intensity of exposure on ecosystem services than low-emission pathway, and disturbances accompanied by future climate change at specific elevation intervals should not be ignored. Identifying spatial association among the ecosystem services and climatic drivers is helpful for targeted management and sustainable development of soil in the context of global warming.KeywordsEcosystem services, Climate change, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Sensitivity, Exposure

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Elucidating climatic controls of polynomial trends in interannual variations of northern ecosystem productivities

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12919 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wenxin Zhang ◽

Hongxiao Jin ◽

Sadegh Jamali ◽

Zheng Duan ◽

Mousong Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Patterns ◽

Plant Phenology ◽

Ecosystem Productivity ◽

Polynomial Trend ◽

Non Linear ◽

Climatic Drivers ◽

Polynomial Trends ◽

Permanent Wetland ◽

Linear Trends

Rapid warming in northern high latitudes during the past two decades may have profound impacts on the structures and functioning of ecosystems. Understanding how ecosystems respond to climatic change is crucial for the prediction of climate-induced changes in plant phenology and productivity. Here we investigate spatial patterns of polynomial trends in ecosystem productivity for northern (> 30 &#176;N) biomes and their relationships with climatic drivers during 2000&#8211;2018. Based on a moderate resolution (0.05&#176;) of satellite data and climate observations, we quantify polynomial trend types and change rates of ecosystem productivities using plant phenology index (PPI), a proxy of gross primary productivity (GPP), and a polynomial trend identification scheme (Polytrend). We find the yearly-integrated PPI (PPIINT) shows a high degree of agreement with an OCO-2-based solar&#8208;induced chlorophyll fluorescence GPP product (GOSIF-GPP) for distinct spatial patterns of trend types of ecosystem productivities. The averaged slope for linear trends of GPP is found positive across all the biomes, among which deciduous broadleaved and evergreen needle-leaved forests show the highest and lowest rates respectively. The evergreen needle-leaved forests, low shrub, and permanent wetland show linear trends in PPIINT over more than 50% of the covered area and permanent wetland also shows a large fraction of the area with the quadratic and cubic trends. Spatial patterns of linear trends for growing season sum of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetic active radiation have been quantified. Based on the partial correlations between PPIINT and climate drivers, we found that there is a consistent shift of dominant drivers from temperature or radiation to precipitation across all the biomes except the permeant wetland when the trend type of ecosystem productivity changes from linear to non-linear. This may imply precipitation changes in recent years may determine the linear or non-linear responses of ecosystem productivity to climate change. Our results highlight the importance of understanding how changes in climatic drivers may affect the overall responses of ecosystems productivity. Our findings will facilitate the sustainable management of ecosystems accounting for the resilience of ecosystem productivity and phenology to future climate change.

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Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution ◽

10.3389/fevo.2021.724051 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Henrik R. Hallingbäck ◽

Vanessa Burton ◽

Natalia Vizcaíno-Palomar ◽

Felix Trotter ◽

Mateusz Liziniewicz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Scots Pine ◽

General Circulation ◽

Research Collaboration ◽

Tree Height ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Nordic Countries ◽

Future Climate ◽

Marginal Populations ◽

Climatic Drivers

Forests provide important ecosystem services and renewable materials. Yet, under a future climate, optimal conditions will likely shift outside the current range for some tree species. This will challenge the persistence of populations to rely on inherent plasticity and genetic diversity to acclimate or adapt to future uncertain conditions. An opportunity to study such processes is offered by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), a forest tree with a large distribution range including populations locally adapted to a wide variety of environments, which hinders a range-wide assessment of the species to climate change. Here we evaluate tree height growth uncertainty of Scots pine marginal populations in Spain and the Nordic countries linked to their genetic adaptation promoted by different climatic drivers. Our aims are to: (i) review the main climatic drivers of Scots pine adaptation across its range; (ii) undertake provenance-based modeling and prediction of tree height under current and future climate scenarios including four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and five general circulation models (GCMs) at two extremes of its climatic niche; (iii) estimate uncertainty in population tree height linked to the main drivers of local adaptation that may change among RCPs and GCMs in the Nordic countries and Spain. Our models revealed that tree height adaptation is mostly driven by drought in Spain and by photoperiod in the Nordic countries, whereas the literature review also highlighted temperature as a climatic driver for the Nordic region. Model predictions for the Nordic countries showed an overall increase in tree height but with high uncertainty in magnitude depending on the RCPs and GCMs whereas predictions for Spain showed tree height to be maintained in the north and reduced in the south, but with similar magnitudes among RCPs and GCMs. Both models predicted tree height outside the data range used to develop the models (extrapolation). Predictions using higher emission RCPs resulted in larger extrapolated areas, constituting a further source of uncertainty. An expanded network of Scots pine field trials throughout Europe, facilitated by data collection and international research collaboration, would limit the need for uncertain predictions based on extrapolation.

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Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0)

10.5194/gmd-2021-287 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Johannes Oberpriller ◽

Christine Herschlein ◽

Peter Anthoni ◽

Almut Arneth ◽

Andreas Krause ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Control ◽

Stress Gradient ◽

Climate Change Policy ◽

Ecosystem Dynamics ◽

Environmental Drivers ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Predictive Uncertainty ◽

European Forests ◽

Climatic Drivers

Abstract. Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics under climate change projected by a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS 4.0) across European forests addressing the effect of both model parameters and environmental drivers. We find that projected forest carbon fluxes are most sensitive to photosynthesis-, water- and mortality-related parameters, while predictive uncertainties are dominantly induced by climatic drivers, and parameters related to water and mortality. The importance of climatic drivers for predictive uncertainty increases with increasing temperature and thus, from north to south across Europe, in line with the stress-gradient hypothesis, which proposes that environmental control dominates at the harsh end of an environmental gradient. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of climatic drivers not only as contributors to predictive uncertainty in their own right, but also as modifiers of sensitivities and thus uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.

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