The Updated Okun Method for Estimation of Potential Output with Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization

Author(s):  
Claudia Fontanari ◽  
Antonella Palumbo ◽  
Chiara Salvatori
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Fontanari ◽  
◽  
Antonella Palumbo ◽  
Chiara Salvatori ◽  
◽  
...  

This paper extends to different indicators of labor underutilization the Updated Okun Method (UOM) for estimation of potential output proposed in Fontanari et al (2020), which, from a demand-led growth perspective, regards potential output as an empirical approximation to full-employment output, as in A.M.Okun’s (1962) original method. Based on the apparent incapability of the official rate of unemployment to fully account for labor underutilization, in this paper we offer estimates of Okun’s law both with broad unemployment indicators and with an indicator of ‘standardized hours worked’ which we propose as a novel measure of the labor input. The paper reflects on the possible different empirical measures of full employment. The various measures of potential output that we extract from our analysis show greater output gaps than those produced by standard methods, thus highlighting a systematic tendency of the latter to underestimate potential output. Output gaps that underestimate the size of the output loss or that tend to close too soon during recovery, may produce a bias towards untimely restriction.


2018 ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Alejandra Andrea Godoy Ormazábal

ResumenEl sistema chileno de ejecución de penas contempla penas sustitutivas destinadas a benefciar a quienes se encuentren privados de libertad, a efectos de contribuir a su reinserción social. La ley 20.603 vino a reformar el régimen general con el objetivo de disminuir el nivel de hacinamiento, en particular después de la traumática experiencia sufrida en el incendio de la Cárcel de San Miguel en diciembre de 2010. El artículo reconstruye el debate legislativo a efectos de comprender las diferentes posturas manifestadas en él, al mismo tiempo que se presentan y explican las fuentes comparadas que inspiraron la reforma. La evaluación de la misma por la opinión pública y ciudadana emerge como una preocupación latente que pondrá a prueba la efcacia del sistema.Palabras clave: funciones de la pena, medidas alternativas, reinserción social, sistema penitenciario.ResumoO sistema chileno de execução de penas contempla medidas alternativas destinadas a benefciar aqueles que se encontram privados de sua liberdade, a fm de contribuir na sua reinserção social. A Lei 20.603 veio para reformar o regime geral, a fim de reduzir o nível de superlotação, especialmente após a experiência traumática sofrida no incêndio na prisão de San Miguel, em Dezembro de 2010, sem deixar de outorgar proteçãopara as vítimas. O artigo reconstrói o debate legislativo, a fim de compreender as diferentes posições expressas no mesmo, ao mesmo tempo em que se apresentam e explicam as fontes comparadas que inspiraram a reforma. A avaliação da mesma pela opinião pública e cidadã, emerge como uma preocupação latente que vai colocar a prova a efcácia do sistema.Palavras-chave: funções da pena, medidas alternativas, reinserção social, sistema penitenciário. AbstractThe Chilean system of penalties execution contemplates alternative measures intended to beneft those deprived of their liberty, in order to contribute to their social reintegration. Law 20.603 came to reform the general regime in order to reduce the level of overcrowding, particularly after the traumatic experience of the San Miguel’s Prison fre in December of 2010, maintaining the protection granted to the victims. This paper reconstructs the legislative debate in order to understand the different positions expressed in it, while presenting and explaining the comparativesources that inspired the reform. The evaluation of the reform by public and citizen opinion emerges as a latent concern that will test the effciency of the system.Keywords: functions of penalties, alternative measures, social reintegration, penitentiary system


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.


Author(s):  
Mustapha Baghli ◽  
Carine Bouthevillain ◽  
Olivier de Bandt ◽  
Henri Fraisse ◽  
Hervé le Bihan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document