Food crisis in fast-growing Turkmenistan

Since the beginning of the 21st century, Turkmenistan’s economy has been growing very fast, which has been primarily generated through the extractive sector and construction industry. After the energy price collapse in mid-2014, the country has recorded a shortage of foreign currency. The authoritarian regime passed currency and economic problems onto the society. As a result, the country has experienced the most severe food crisis in its history. The main aim of the paper is to identify the reasons behind the food crisis in Turkmenistan. The paper tries to answer the following question: how did it happen that people in one of the fastest-growing countries in the 21st century have been suffering from food shortages? The study is based on data retrieved from the World Bank Open Data, ILOSTAT, and Observatory of Economic Complexity, as well as a critical review of independent news websites. The food crisis in Turkmenistan was primarily caused by hyperinflation and rationing basic groceries at preferential prices, wage arrears, cutting salaries of state employees to fund construction projects in progress, group layoffs of state employees, growing difficulties in running a private business, and depriving people of the possibility to exchange the currency at the official rate. The end of a free provision of Turkmenistan’s population with electricity, gas, and drinking water has further deepened the crisis.

Branchless Banking Process in Rural Areas: A Price Barrier?

Branchless Banking is one of the programs of Indonesia's financial inclusion strategy. The programs' name is "Financial Service Without Office in the Framework of Inclusive Financial" which called “Laku Pandai.” This study aims to portrait the implementation of the Branchless Banking program concerning the obstacles that occurred to achieve program objectives. The research conducted using qualitative methods. The existence of Branchless Banking agents close to the community has fulfilled the program objective, to make an easy way for society to do financial transactions without having to go to the bank office. Therefore, the implementation of the Branchless Banking program met the criteria for eliminating non-price barriers in financial services in remote areas. However, delegation authority to the agent as an extension of the bank to provide limited financial services has encouraged agents to engage in moral hazard behaviors by charging the tariff that greater than the official rate set by the managing bank. It showed that the agent has taken the consumer surplus provided by the Branchless Banking technology. Although accepted by society since considerably cheaper than the fee to go to the nearest bank office, that condition becomes a price barrier for the future development of Branchless Banking.

The Updated Okun Method for Estimation of Potential Output with Broad Measures of Labor Underutilization: An Empirical Analysis

This paper extends to different indicators of labor underutilization the Updated Okun Method (UOM) for estimation of potential output proposed in Fontanari et al (2020), which, from a demand-led growth perspective, regards potential output as an empirical approximation to full-employment output, as in A.M.Okun’s (1962) original method. Based on the apparent incapability of the official rate of unemployment to fully account for labor underutilization, in this paper we offer estimates of Okun’s law both with broad unemployment indicators and with an indicator of ‘standardized hours worked’ which we propose as a novel measure of the labor input. The paper reflects on the possible different empirical measures of full employment. The various measures of potential output that we extract from our analysis show greater output gaps than those produced by standard methods, thus highlighting a systematic tendency of the latter to underestimate potential output. Output gaps that underestimate the size of the output loss or that tend to close too soon during recovery, may produce a bias towards untimely restriction.

"TRUE" INCIDENCE OF SKIN MELANOMA, BASED ON A MASSIVE 3-DAY EARLY DIAGNOSIS CAMPAIGN IN A BIG INDUSTRIAL CITY

Skin melanoma (SM) is a malignant tumor that is quite rarely diagnosed in Russia. However, both absolute and relative numbers (incidence) of patients with this diagnosis are growing. The trend persists for many years, but the official incidence rate does not reflect the true picture, so it is likely to be lower than the true one. The aim of the study was to calculate the assumed incidence of skin melanoma based on the data from a large-scale early diagnosis campaign. Materials and Methods. In 2019, 800 patients were examined during a 3-day campaign in the Samara region. A non-invasive diagnostic method (digital dermatoscopy), a multi-agent technology based on artificial intelligence and a proprietary technology (patent No. 2018620399, No. 2018613016) were used during the campaign. Four skin melanomas were identified at an early, pre-invasive stage. Results. Two different methods (depending on the percentage of population coverage and the campaign duration), made it possible to calculate a true indicator of the skin melanoma incidence. Conclusion. It was possible to adjust the "true" incidence rate of skin melanoma. In 2019, it ranged from 9.65 to 15.31 per 100 000 people, which is significantly higher than the official rate registered that year (8.11 per 100 000 population). Keywords: skin melanoma, true incidence, large-scale campaign, multi-agent system, skin melanoma modeling. Меланома кожи (МК) является злокачественной опухолью, которая встречается в РФ довольно редко, причем растет как абсолютное количество пациентов с данным диагнозом, так и относительное (заболеваемость). Данная тенденция стабильно сохраняется на протяжении многих лет, однако официальный показатель заболеваемости не отражает реальной картины и вполне вероятно, что он несколько ниже «истинного». Целью исследования был расчет предполагаемой заболеваемости меланомой кожи на основании данных, полученных в результате масштабной кампании по ранней диагностике. Материалы и методы. В Самарской области в 2019 г. была проведена 3-дневная кампания, которая позволила обследовать 800 обратившихся пациентов с помощью неинвазивного метода диагностики (цифровой дерматоскопии) и мультиагентной технологии, основанной на искусственном интеллекте и авторской методике (патент на изобретение № 2018620399, № 2018613016). Всего было выявлено 4 меланомы кожи на ранней, доинвазивной, стадии. Результаты. В ходе расчета по 2 различным методикам (в зависимости от процента охвата населения и продолжительности акции) был получен «истинный» показатель заболеваемости МК. Выводы. «Истинный» показатель заболеваемости МК был скорректирован и составил от 9,65 до 15,31 на 100 тыс. населения, что значительно больше официального, зарегистрированного в отчетном 2019 г. (8,11 на 100 тыс. населения). Ключевые слова: меланома кожи, «истинная» заболеваемость, масштабная кампания, мультиагентная система, моделирование заболеваемости меланомы кожи.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate

Creating a scientific survey of unemployment in the 1930s and 1940s was an advance for people’s understanding of unemployment and for rational government policy. Many government officials, including Secretary of Labor Frances Perkins and agencies including the Census Bureau, the Works Progress Administration, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), deserve credit for the achievement. However, today’s BLS unemployment rate omits too many people, and the low count weakens support for job-creation programs. This chapter offers a short history and a critique. It explains and evaluates the official rate, discusses hidden unemployment, including discouraged workers and other labor-force dropouts, evaluates alternative unemployment rates, including the BLS’s U-6 and the National Jobs for All Coalition’s rate, and examines the idea of full employment.

Damascus will likely fail to stem currency collapse

Significance The Syrian pound’s weakening beyond 1,000 to the dollar on the parallel market has exposed the chronic weakness of the economy, even as President Bashar al-Assad’s forces move ever closer to realising his goal of winning back control over the entire country. The government and central bank have maintained the official rate and resorted to a mixture of deterrents and inducements, seeking to stem the currency slide. Impacts The pressure on the parallel exchange market will push up living costs, despite government efforts to control prices. The government’s first issue of Treasury bills since 2011 will help finance the fiscal deficit but have limited impact on the exchange rate. The clampdown on informal transactions and suspension of licensed exchange houses may not draw more foreign exchange into official channels. Assad may seek to restore relations with Gulf countries to garner financial support, possibly in return for loosening ties with Iran.

Militia rivalry impedes peace efforts in Libya

Significance The paths they take will have significant implications for politics, security and the economy. Impacts Renewed fighting would cause substantial damage to Tripoli’s infrastructure and lead to significant displacements. Devaluing the dinar’s official rate will only temporarily stall the black-market rate’s further fall amid stalled economic reforms. Some militias might view election delays as a window to renew fighting over state resources and seek strategic position ahead of elections.