The Updated Okun Method for Estimation of Potential Output with Broad Measures of Labor Underutilization: An Empirical Analysis

This paper extends to different indicators of labor underutilization the Updated Okun Method (UOM) for estimation of potential output proposed in Fontanari et al (2020), which, from a demand-led growth perspective, regards potential output as an empirical approximation to full-employment output, as in A.M.Okun’s (1962) original method. Based on the apparent incapability of the official rate of unemployment to fully account for labor underutilization, in this paper we offer estimates of Okun’s law both with broad unemployment indicators and with an indicator of ‘standardized hours worked’ which we propose as a novel measure of the labor input. The paper reflects on the possible different empirical measures of full employment. The various measures of potential output that we extract from our analysis show greater output gaps than those produced by standard methods, thus highlighting a systematic tendency of the latter to underestimate potential output. Output gaps that underestimate the size of the output loss or that tend to close too soon during recovery, may produce a bias towards untimely restriction.

Monitoring of regional labor markets and the main trends of labor underutilization in Russia

PurposeIn the recent two decades, a model of the labor market formed in Russia; it differs from the model that is peculiar for most developed countries. Its specific feature consists in the fact that adaptation to the fluctuations of the economic situation takes place by means of changes in the labor price, not by means of changes in employment and unemployment.Design/methodology/approachSuch model ensures high and stable level of employment and low level of unemployment with significant pro-cyclic fluctuations of wages. Changes that take place in the sphere of employment of population in labor markets and gradual implementation of collection of information in view of the forms of labor activities into the practices of different countries led to the necessity for reconsidering the previously adopted international standards.FindingsThis is due to the fact that the normative documents present the treatment of unemployment without the criterion “job search,” and new indicators of measuring potential labor force and incomplete employment were adopted. The authors analyze the situation of labor underutilization, which is important for characterizing a region of the Russian Federation by the indicator of unmet need for employment.Originality/valueThe offered information could be used for wider monitoring of the labor market, studying the volume and tendencies in the sphere of unemployment, evaluating the problems of integration in the labor market, studying the connection between employment and poverty and forecasting the tendencies.

New Improvement of Labor Accounting in the Sharing Economy

The investigation of labor is a key aspect of population research, and labor accounting, as its foundation, is an important means to judge the degree of economic development and monitor the changes of the labor market, having always been a focus of scholarly research. At present, the sharing economy is on the rise worldwide and influences labor accounting. In this paper, starting from the context of the sharing economy and the current situation of labor accounting, several important aspects of labor accounting will be discussed. In the context of the sharing economy, household subsistence service production is to be included in the production accounting boundary, which is the root of the changes in labor accounting. On this basis, the following findings are drawn. (1) The scope of accounting for employment should be expanded, which puts higher demands on the labor accounting method. (2) Working time should be remeasured, especially indicators based on pay time. (3) Finally, the design of indicators in labor underutilization also requires the formation of new ideas, especially unemployment should be redefined. Finally, in view of the current status of labor accounting in China, policy suggestions for future improvement under the sharing economy are put forward.

The Rise of Youth Unemployment and Youth NEETs in the CEECs After the 2008 Crisis

This study examines the impact of the 2008 economic crisis on youth unemployment and NEETs in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). It also analyses structural labor market problems in these economies such as youth unemployment by duration and skill, labor underutilization, and mismatch. The findings show that youth unemployment and NEET rates were more sensitive to the crisis in the CEECs compared to those in the EU-28. The highest increases were experienced in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Croatia for youth unemployment; and in Bulgaria, Latvia, Croatia, and Romania for youth NEETs. The NEET rates of 15-29 ages emerged as a more crucial issue than that of 15-24 ages. The examination of labor market structural problems shows that most of the relevant proxies worsened after the crisis in the CEECs; however, the proxies for Croatia were higher than the others. Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovak Republic also signal some structural problems, to a lesser extent.

Youth Labor Underutilization in Australia Following the Global Financial Crisis

In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, although the Australian economy remained largely buoyant in aggregate terms, outcomes across different groups were not evenly shared. In labor market terms, different demographic groups appeared to more or less impacted by the post-GFC economic environment. One such group were young people, who witnessed a change in employment fortunes compared to others in the labor force. This chapter provides an investigation of these uneven labor market outcomes and presents an analysis of youth labor underutilization using pooled panel data, taking account of both individual level supply-side factors together with the strength of the local labor market (demand-side). The result is an analysis that accounts for the impact of changing macroeconomy, local labor market conditions, and the employability assets of young individuals. The result illustrates the impact of the post-GFC economy of the youth labor market.

Discussion at the Central House of Scientists, RAS of the Development Problems of National Statistics and Their Solutions (Review of Scientific Papers and Reports on the Statistics Section in 2018-2019)

This scientific and information review provides insight into the contents and nature of some questions and matters of national statistics as noted in the reports of statisticians - academics and practitioners at the meeting of Statistics Section of the Central House of Scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CDU RAS) in 2018-2019. The Section covered a wide range of topics which could be grouped (although this grouping is somewhat relative) into three focus areas in modern Russian statistics discussed in the 2018-2019 season at the Central House of Scientists: I. Theoretical and practical aspects associated with conducting statistical observations, II. Development issues of macroeconomic statistics and III. Application of international statistical standards to Russian conditions.In these respective areas, debates focused on the results of the 2016 Russian Census of agriculture, optimization of the organizational structure of the 2020 Russian Population Census based on the results of the 2018 Pilot Population Census, fundamental principles of consumer price monitoring and calculating the consumer price index in today’s Russian statistics. Topics of methodological support of statistics on non-financial economic assets, improving the quality of GDP estimates based on the development of annual supply and use tables, the subject matter of innovation statistics triggered heated discussions amongst the practitioners and theoreticians who participated actively in the meetings. Finally, the Section reviewed matters of adopting international statistical standards to suit Russian conditions, in particular, the practical implementation of the Resolution concerning statistics of work, employment, and labor underutilization and Russian issues of international banking statistics.