Fatality risk assessment and modeling of drivers responsibility for causing traffic accidents in Dubai

2002 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 483-496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim M. Abdalla
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Fatality Risk

scholarly journals Benefit–Risk Assessment of the French Surveillance Protocol of Apparently Healthy Biting Dogs and Cats for Human Rabies Prevention

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Guillaume Crozet ◽  
Tiffany Charmet ◽  
Florence Cliquet ◽  
Emmanuelle Robardet ◽  
Barbara Dufour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Scenario Tree ◽  
Human Rabies ◽  
Post Exposure Prophylaxis ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Benefit Risk Assessment ◽  
Surveillance Protocol ◽  
Exposure Prophylaxis ◽  
Apparently Healthy

In France, apparently healthy dogs and cats that bite humans must undergo an observation period of 15 days with three veterinary visits to ascertain that they remain healthy, indicating that no zoonotic transmission of rabies virus occurred via salivary presymptomatic excretion. This surveillance protocol is mandatory for all pets that have bitten humans, despite France’s rabies-free status in non-flying mammals (i.e., a very low rabies risk). In this context, we aimed to perform a benefit–risk assessment of the existing regulatory surveillance protocol of apparently healthy biting animals, as well as alternative surveillance protocols. A scenario-tree modelling approach was used to consider the possible successions of events between a dog or cat bite and a human death attributed to either rabies or to lethal harm associated with the surveillance protocol (e.g., lethal traffic accidents when traveling to veterinary clinics or anti-rabies centers). The results demonstrated that the current French surveillance protocol was not beneficial, as more deaths were generated (traffic accidents) than avoided (by prompt post-exposure prophylaxis administration). We showed here that less stringent risk-based surveillance could prove more appropriate in a French context. The results in this study could allow policy-makers to update and optimize rabies management legislation.

USE OF BAYESIAN METHOD FOR ASSESSING VESSEL TRAFFIC RISKS AT SEA

2008 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 627-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHENPING HU ◽  
XUDONG LI ◽  
QUANGEN FANG ◽  
ZAILI YANG
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Point Estimation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Traffic System ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Ship Operation

Risks associated with a vessel traffic system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method is developed to ensure safe ship operation. Based on Bayes' point estimation and probability influence diagram to estimate the traffic accidents related to vessel traffic, an analysis model is established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel traffic system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence likelihood of the accidents related to ship traffic, a structure on the basis of Bayesian networks is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative risks. QRA is also put forward after analyzing the features and situations of the vessel traffic system and identifying the corresponding hazards including characteristics of those hazards. The risk distributions of ship traffic are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features by using this risk assessment model. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible by the use of identified posterior probability.

scholarly journals Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model

2021 ◽  
Vol 257 ◽  
pp. 02047
Author(s):  
Zhen Tian ◽  
Jinhua Fan ◽  
Qianqian Chen ◽  
Huaichen Hu ◽  
Yanyang Shen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Change Curve ◽  
Or Gate

There are many risk factors and large uncertainties in expressway nighttime maintenance construction(ENMC), and the state of risk factors will change dynamically with time. In this study, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was proposed to investigate the dynamic characteristics of the time-varying probability of traffic accidents during expressway maintenance at night. Combined with Leaky Noisy-or gate extended model, the calculation method of conditional probability is determined . By setting evidences for DBN reasoning, the time series change curve of the probability of traffic accidents and other risk factors are obtained. The results show that DBN can be applied to risk assessment of ENMC.

BOOTSTRAPPING DEA SCORES FOR TRAFFIC FATALITY RISK ASSESSMENT IN BRAZIL

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
JORGE TIAGO BASTOS ◽  
YONGJUN SHEN ◽  
ELKE HERMANS ◽  
TOM BRIJS ◽  
GEERT WETS ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Traffic Fatality

scholarly journals Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Zischg ◽  
S. Fuchs ◽  
M. Keiler ◽  
J. Stötter
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
High Hazard ◽  
Hazard Level ◽  
High Traffic Density

Abstract. The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Regression Analysis of Pedestrian Fatality Risk and Impact Speed

2014 ◽  
Vol 971-973 ◽  
pp. 1300-1303
Author(s):  
Zhen Zhang ◽  
Gui Fan Zhao ◽  
Na Yang ◽  
Xiao Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Impact Speed ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Pedestrian Traffic ◽  
Long Head ◽  
The Relationship

In order to study the relationship between pedestrian fatality risk and impact speed in domestic pedestrian traffic accidents. According to the frontal shapes of domestic vehicles, this paper divided the vehicle types into long head car, short head car and flat car. Used in-depth accident study method to collect a large number of actual traffic accidents cases. The logistic regression models of pedestrian fatality risk and impact speed of long head car, short head car and flat car were established. The Wald Chi-Square test was used to validate the accuracy of the model. The results shows: The long head car corresponds to the lowest pedestrian fatality risk, the flat car corresponds to the highest values. Compared with developed countries, the developed emergency and medical care play an important role in reducing the pedestrian fatality risk.

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