scholarly journals Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Zischg ◽  
S. Fuchs ◽  
M. Keiler ◽  
J. Stötter
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
High Hazard ◽  
Hazard Level ◽  
High Traffic Density

Abstract. The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

scholarly journals The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 893-901 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Fuchs ◽  
M. Keiler ◽  
A. Zischg ◽  
M. Bründl
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Development Patterns ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Lateral Extent ◽  
Avalanche Risk

Abstract. Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Carcinogenic Polyaromatic Hydrocarbon Levels in Airborne Particulates Associated with Long-Term Exposure throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic in Makkah, Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 12745
Author(s):  
Heba Mohamed Adly ◽  
Saleh Ahmed K. Saleh
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Polyaromatic Hydrocarbons ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Carcinogenic Effects ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Traffic Density ◽  
Carcinogenic Compound

Background: The effect of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on human health differs depending on the duration and exposure path. Objective: This study aimed to examine the effects of PAHs on the human health risks associated with long-term exposure both before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: PM10 sampling for 24 h was conducted at six sampling sites (Al-Haram, Aziziyah, Al Nuzhah, Muzdalifah, Arafat, and Al Awali). On-site measurements were conducted from March 2020 to February 2021. PAHs were analyzed using Perkin Elmer GC/MS, which was adjusted with standard reagents for identifying 16 PAH mixtures. Results: The 24 h average PM10 concentration showed considerable inconsistencies, exceeding the WHO standards used for median exposure (25.0 µgm−3). The PAH intensities fluctuated from 7.67 to 34.7 ng/m3 in a suburban area, near a rush-hour traffic road, and from 6.34 to 37.4 ng/m3 close to business and light manufacturing areas. The highest carcinogenic compound levels were found in the Al-Azizia, Al Muzdalifah, and Al Nuzah areas because of the high traffic density, and the lowest concentrations were found in the Al-Haram and Arafat areas throughout the year, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic health precautions that were undertaken by the government of Saudi Arabia involving border entry limits and limitations of the Umrah and Hajj seasons. Conclusion: This study period is considered extraordinary as the Saudi Arabian government has undertaken successful preventive measures that have had a great effect both on the spread of the pandemic and in reducing air pollution in Makkah. More studies are required to examine PAHs’ carcinogenic effects after the pandemic measures are eased across Makkah.

Impact of Highway Metrication on Traffic Accidents and Long-Term Trends in Vehicle Speeds for Roads with Resultant Increased Speed Limits

1979 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 503-507
Author(s):  
MICHAEL L. MATTHEWS
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Traffic Patterns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Accident Rate ◽  
Safety Hazard ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Accident Statistics

The impact of metrication of roadside speed signs upon vehicle speeds was investigated for four different road types using concealed roadside radar. The study was conducted one year after metrication to determine whether there were any long-term changes in traffic patterns in addition to the short-term influences reported previously. There was no evidence for any tendency for drivers to increase traveled speed on roads for which metrication resulted in an increase in the speed limit. Analysis of accident statistics for the month following metrication revealed no significant increase in accident rate over that projected from nine-year accident trends. It is concluded that highway metrication does not present the safety hazard suggested by critics of the metrication program.

scholarly journals The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Road Traffic Safety: A Study Based on the ARDL-ECM Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10262
Author(s):  
Xibing Li ◽  
Jiao Liu ◽  
Jian Zhou ◽  
Xiling Liu ◽  
Lei Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Vehicle Ownership ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Private Vehicle

This paper attempts to examine whether socioeconomic volatility produces differentiated effects on road traffic accident indicators. Adopting the Autoregressive distributed lag error-correction model (ARDL-ECM), this paper explores the long-term equilibrium and short-term interactions between five common economic indicators, namely, average salaries (AS), employment (EM), unemployment (UE), total mileage of highway (TMH), and private vehicle ownership (PVO), as well as road traffic-related indicators including the number of road traffic accidents (RTA), injuries (IN), fatalities (FA), and direct economic losses (DEL), using data of road traffic accidents spanning from 1999 to 2018 in China. The study found that all economic indicators except average salaries showed a long-term equilibrium with road traffic accident indicators. The Granger causality test showed that, over the short term, an increase in employment could lead to an increase in injuries, and an increase in private vehicle ownership could cause a rise in fatalities. This study demonstrates that the volatility in economic indicators indeed produces differentiated effects on road traffic accident indicators, providing a theoretical basis for improving road safety performance and formulating relevant policies.

scholarly journals Air Pollution and Mortality: Timing Is Everything

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1274
Author(s):  
Frederick W. Lipfert
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Indoor Air Pollution ◽  
Health Effect ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Term Studies

This paper considers timing issues in health-effect exposure and response studies. Short-term studies must consider delayed and cumulative responses; prior exposures, disease latency, and cumulative impacts are required for long-term studies. Lacking individual data, long-term air quality describes locations, as do greenspaces and traffic density, rather than exposures of residents. Indoor air pollution can bias long-term exposures and effect estimates but short-term effects also respond to infiltrated outdoor air. Daily air quality fluctuations may affect the frail elderly and are necessarily included in long-term averages; any true long-term effects must be given by differences between annual and daily effects. I found such differences to be negligible after adjusting for insufficient lag effects in time-series studies and neglect of prior exposures in long-term studies. Aging of subjects under study implies cumulative exposures, but based on age-specific mortality, I found relative risks decreasing with age, precluding cumulative effects. A new type of time-series study found daily mortality of previously frail subjects to be associated with various pollutants without exposure thresholds, but the role of air pollution in the onset of frailty remains an unexplored issue. The importance of short-term fluctuations has been underestimated and putative effects of long-term exposures have been overestimated.

Examining the Impact on Road Safety Performance of Socioeconomic Variables in Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110363
Author(s):  
Salih Bektaş
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
World Health ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported that each year, 1.35 million people worldwide die in traffic accidents, 20 to 50 million people are injured, and many of those who are injured are disabled. This article uses time-series data for the period 1970 to 2018 in Turkey short- and long-term social economic variables between the number of road accidents, energy consumption, gross domestic product per capita, vehicle kilometers traveled, number of motor vehicles, divided road length, and population growth to investigate the causal relationship. In the analysis, the vector error correction model (VECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model were used for the short and long term, respectively. The results show that a 1% increase in the number of motor vehicles increases the number of accidents by 2.83% in the long term and has a positive relationship with traffic accidents. It has been determined that a 1% increase in the population increases the number of accidents by 9.43% in the short term and has a positive relationship with traffic accidents. It has been observed that a 1% increase in the length of the divided highway (LNDR [-2]) reduces accidents by 1.21% in the short term and there is a negative relationship between energy consumption and divided roads. This result supports the decision of the administrators in the country to construct a divided road.

Conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) supports core claims of Christiansen and Chater

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary C. Potter
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
Rapid Serial Visual Presentation ◽  
Language Comprehension ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Visual Presentation ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Use Of Knowledge

AbstractRapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.

Ultrastructural investigations of MDL 19,660-induced effects on the canine platelet and megakaryocyte

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 374-375
Author(s):  
D.E. Loudy ◽  
J. Sprinkle-Cavallo ◽  
J.T. Yarrington ◽  
F.Y. Thompson ◽  
J.P. Gibson
Keyword(s):  
Antidepressant Drug ◽  
Beagle Dogs ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Platelet Counts ◽  
Toxicological Studies ◽  
Induced Aggregation ◽  
Internal Architecture

Previous short term toxicological studies of one to two weeks duration have demonstrated that MDL 19,660 (5-(4-chlorophenyl)-2,4-dihydro-2,4-dimethyl-3Hl, 2,4-triazole-3-thione), an antidepressant drug, causes a dose-related thrombocytopenia in dogs. Platelet counts started to decline after two days of dosing with 30 mg/kg/day and continued to decrease to their lowest levels by 5-7 days. The loss in platelets was primarily of the small discoid subpopulation. In vitro studies have also indicated that MDL 19,660: does not spontaneously aggregate canine platelets and has moderate antiaggregating properties by inhibiting ADP-induced aggregation. The objectives of the present investigation of MDL 19,660 were to evaluate ultrastructurally long term effects on platelet internal architecture and changes in subpopulations of platelets and megakaryocytes.Nine male and nine female beagle dogs were divided equally into three groups and were administered orally 0, 15, or 30 mg/kg/day of MDL 19,660 for three months. Compared to a control platelet range of 353,000- 452,000/μl, a doserelated thrombocytopenia reached a maximum severity of an average of 135,000/μl for the 15 mg/kg/day dogs after two weeks and 81,000/μl for the 30 mg/kg/day dogs after one week.

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