Tool Estimates Absolute Risk of Prostate Cancer

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (10) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
BRUCE JANCIN
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Absolute Risk

scholarly journals Acute urinary retention and risk of cancer: population based Danish cohort study

BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n2305
Author(s):  
Maria Bisgaard Bengtsen ◽  
Dóra Körmendiné Farkas ◽  
Michael Borre ◽  
Henrik Toft Sørensen ◽  
Mette Nørgaard
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Urinary Retention ◽  
Acute Urinary Retention ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Excess Risk ◽  
Tract Cancer ◽  
Urinary Tract Cancer

Abstract Objective To examine the risk of urogenital, colorectal, and neurological cancers after a first diagnosis of acute urinary retention. Design Nationwide population based cohort study. Setting All hospitals in Denmark. Participants 75 983 patients aged 50 years or older with a first hospital admission for acute urinary retention during 1995-2017. Main outcome measures Absolute risk of urogenital, colorectal, and neurological cancer and excess risk of these cancers among patients with acute urinary retention compared with the general population. Results The absolute risk of prostate cancer after a first diagnosis of acute urinary retention was 5.1% (n=3198) at three months, 6.7% (n=4233) at one year, and 8.5% (n=5217) at five years. Within three months of follow-up, 218 excess cases of prostate cancer per 1000 person years were detected. An additional 21 excess cases per 1000 person years were detected during three to less than 12 months of follow-up, but beyond 12 months the excess risk was negligible. Within three months of follow-up the excess risk for urinary tract cancer was 56 per 1000 person years, for genital cancer in women was 24 per 1000 person years, for colorectal cancer was 12 per 1000 person years, and for neurological cancer was 2 per 1000 person years. For most of the studied cancers, the excess risk was confined to within three months of follow-up, but the risk of prostate and urinary tract cancer remained increased during three to less than 12 months of follow-up. In women, an excess risk of invasive bladder cancer persisted for several years. Conclusions Acute urinary retention might be a clinical marker for occult urogenital, colorectal, and neurological cancers. Occult cancer should possibly be considered in patients aged 50 years or older presenting with acute urinary retention and no obvious underlying cause.

Relationship of overall survival and the frequency of performing transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy of the prostate in those patients with low-risk tumors electing active surveillance.

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 238-238
Author(s):  
David D. Buethe ◽  
Christopher Russell ◽  
Binglin Yue ◽  
Hui-Yi Lin ◽  
Julio M. Pow-Sang
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Active Surveillance ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Transrectal Ultrasound ◽  
Retrospective Chart Review ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Oncologic Outcomes ◽  
Definitive Treatment ◽  
Prostatic Biopsy

238 Background: Limited derived benefit from definitive treatment has been observed with respect to prostate cancer−specific mortality (PCSM) in those low−risk disease and only small absolute risk reductions in both overall PCSM and incidence of metastasis have been demonstrated. Thus, active surveillance (AS) strategies have been adopted to monitor for disease progression with intent for intervention at time of disease reclassification. Yet, the timing and frequency of surveillance remain without evidence-based standardization. We assessed the relationship between the frequency of surveillance prostate biopsies and the oncologic outcomes in those patients with low−risk prostate cancer (CaP) managed by AS. Methods: An IRB approved retrospective chart review identified 114 patients placed on AS for their CaP between November of 1997 and November of 2000. Of those, 96 patients meet study inclusion criteria mandating a Gleason sum of < 7, tumor presence in < 4 sextets, involvement of <50% of any single biopsy core. Eligible patients were surveyed by serum PSA, DRE, and surveillance TRUS−guided biopsies at physician determined intervals. Results: At diagnosis, the mean age was 70.3 (SD±5.3) years with a mean PSA value of 8.2 (SD±8.2) ng/dL. While on AS, patients underwent a median of 3.5 (SD±2.02) TRUS−guided biopsies; at a frequency approaching 1 biopsy every 18 months. At a median follow−up of 134.8 months (95%CI: 114.5, 148.7), multivariate analysis found more frequent prostatic biopsy acquisition to be inversely associated a worse prognosis with respect to both progression−free (p<0.0001) and overall survival (p=0.0002). Both progression−free (p<0.0001) and overall survival (p=0.0207) were progressively shorter as the interval between biopsies declined from greater than 2 years, to 1−2 years, and then less than 1 year. Conclusions: No survival advantage was achieved by frequent re−biopsy of the prostate. Patients biopsied more frequently were paradoxically found have poorer survival outcomes.

Comparison of enzalutamide and bicalutamide in patients with non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: Number needed to treat to achieve one additional patient free of clinical progression events.

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 228-228
Author(s):  
Lawrence Ivan Karsh ◽  
David F. Penson ◽  
Raoul Concepcion ◽  
Scott Flanders ◽  
Bruce A. Brown ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Specific Antigen ◽  
Additional Patient ◽  
Number Needed To Treat ◽  
Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer ◽  
Clinical Progression ◽  
Free Psa ◽  
Castration Resistant ◽  
Psa Progression

228 Background: Androgen receptor inhibitors enzalutamide (ENZA) and bicalutamide (BIC) are used to treat metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). The Phase 2 STRIVE trial included 35% non-metastatic (m0) and 65% metastatic CRPC patients (pts); ENZA reduced the risk of progression or death among pts, with an adverse event profile consistent with previous trials. The objective of this analysis was to compare ENZA with BIC using the number needed to treat (NNT) to achieve one additional pt with m0CRPC, with either a progression-free survival (PFS) event, radiographic PFS (rPFS), or free of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression at 1 year and 2 years. Methods: The 1- and 2-year event rates of PFS, rPFS, and progression-free PSA among pts treated with ENZA and BIC were obtained from the STRIVE trial report. The NNT was calculated as the reciprocal of the absolute risk reduction between ENZA and BIC at each time point. This represents the number of pts that need to be treated with ENZA, compared with BIC, to obtain one additional pt free of a clinical progression event. PFS was defined as the time from randomization to investigator-assessed radiographic (bone or soft tissue) progression, PSA progression, or death. The 95% confidence interval (CI) of the NNT was derived based on the 95% CI of the event rate difference. Results: The NNT to achieve one additional pt with PFS at 1 year, comparing ENZA with BIC, was 2.2 (95% CI 1.7, 3.4), suggesting that treating three pts with ENZA instead of BIC would result in one additional pt free of progression or death at the end of 1 year. The NNT to achieve one additional pt with PFS at 2 years was also 2.2 (95% CI 1.5, 3.7). For rPFS, the NNTs comparing ENZA with BIC were 4.7 (95% CI 2.8, 14.6) and 3.0 (95% CI 2.0, 6.1) at 1 and 2 years, respectively. For progression-free PSA, the NNTs were 2.0 (95% CI 1.5, 2.8) and 2.0 (95% CI 1.4, 3.3) at 1 and 2 years, respectively. Conclusions: This analysis supports the superior clinical benefit of ENZA versus BIC in men with m0CRPC. Pts treated with ENZA showed low NNT values across all clinical outcomes and time points. Clinical trial information: NCT01664923.

scholarly journals Number of screens for overdetection as an indicator of absolute risk of overdiagnosis in prostate cancer screening

2012 ◽  
Vol 131 (6) ◽  
pp. 1367-1375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grace Hui-Min Wu ◽  
Anssi Auvinen ◽  
Liisa Määttänen ◽  
Teuvo L.J. Tammela ◽  
Ulf-Håkan Stenman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Prostate Cancer Screening ◽  
Absolute Risk

Absolute and Relative Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Men With Prostate Cancer: Results From the Population-Based PCBaSe Sweden

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (21) ◽  
pp. 3448-3456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mieke Van Hemelrijck ◽  
Hans Garmo ◽  
Lars Holmberg ◽  
Erik Ingelsson ◽  
Ola Bratt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Curative Treatment ◽  
Endocrine Treatment ◽  
Circulatory Disease ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Swedish Population

Purpose Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a potential adverse effect of endocrine treatment (ET) for prostate cancer (PC). We investigated absolute and relative CVD risk in 76,600 patients with PC undergoing ET, curative treatment, or surveillance. Methods PCBaSe Sweden is based on the National Prostate Cancer Register, which covers more than 96% of PC cases. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of ischemic heart disease (IHD), acute myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, heart failure, and stroke were calculated to compare observed and expected (using total Swedish population) numbers of CVD, taking into account age, calendar time, and previous CVD. Results Between 1997 and 2007, 30,642 patients with PC received primary ET, 26,432 curative treatment, and 19,527 surveillance. SIRs for CVD were elevated in all men with the highest for those undergoing ET, independent of circulatory disease history (SIR MI for men without circulatory disease history: 1.40 [95% CI, 1.31 to 1.49], 1.15 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.31], and 1.20 [95% CI, 1.11 to 1.30] for men undergoing ET, curative treatment, and surveillance, respectively). Absolute risk differences (ARD) showed that two (arrhythmia) to eight (IHD) extra cases of CVD would occur per 1,000 person-years. SMRs showed similar patterns, with ARD of zero (arrhythmia) to three (IHD) per 1,000 person-years. Conclusion Increased relative risks of nonfatal and fatal CVD were found among all men with PC, especially those treated with ET. Because ET is currently the only effective treatment for metastatic disease and the ARDs were rather small, our findings indicate that CVD risk should be considered when prescribing ET but should not constitute a contraindication when the expected gain is tangible.

scholarly journals Interpreting cost-effectiveness ratios in a cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-tailored prostate screening: A critique of Callender et al.

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
James F. O'Mahony
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Prostate Cancer Screening ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Cost Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
The Cost

Callender et al. recently published a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of a risk-tailored approach to prostate cancer screening. It considers the costs and effects of prostate cancer screening offered to all men aged 55-69 without any risk selection and, alternatively, over a range of risk-tailored strategies in which screen eligibility is determined by a varying threshold of disease risk. The analysis finds that the strategy of screening men once they reach a 10-year absolute risk of disease of 5% or more is cost-effective in a UK context. I believe there are several problems with the study, mostly stemming from an incorrect interpretation of the cost-effectiveness estimates. I show that one reinterpretation of their results indicates that screening is much less cost-effective than the original analysis suggests, indicating that screening should be restricted to a much smaller group of higher risk men. More broadly, I explain the challenges of attempting to meaningfully reinterpret the originally published results due to the simulation of non-mutually exclusive intervention strategies. Finally, I consider the relevance of considering sufficient alternative screening intensities. This critique highlights the need for appropriate interpretation of cost-effectiveness results for policymakers, especially as risk stratification within screening becomes increasingly feasible.

scholarly journals Development and validation of a novel algorithm to estimate risk of developing prostate cancer in asymptomatic men: a cohort study

2020 ◽  
pp. bjgp20X714137
Author(s):  
Julia Hippisley-Cox ◽  
Carol Coupland
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Specific Antigen ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Risk Equation ◽  
Prostate Cancer Mortality ◽  
History Of ◽  
Asymptomatic Men

Abstract Objective: To develop and validate a risk prediction equation to predict absolute risk of prostate cancer in asymptomatic men with prostate specific antigen (PSA) tests in primary care. Design: Open cohort study. Setting: Routine data from 1098 QResearch® English general practices linked to mortality, hospital and cancer records for model development. Two separate sets of practices for validation. Participants 844,455 men aged 25-84 years with prostate specific antigen (PSA) tests recorded and free of prostate cancer at baseline in the derivation cohort; 292,084 and 316,583 in each validation cohort. Exposures Risk factors assessed at baseline: PSA, age, ethnicity, deprivation, BMI, smoking, family history of prostate cancer, diabetes, mental illness. Main outcomes: Primary outcome was incident prostate cancer. Secondary outcomes were prostate cancer mortality and high-grade cancer. Cox proportional hazards models used to derive 10-year risk equations. Measures of performance were determined in both validation cohorts. Results: 40,821 incident cases of prostate cancer in the derivation cohort. The risk equation included PSA level, age, deprivation, ethnicity, smoking, family history of prostate cancer, serious mental illness, diabetes and BMI. The risk equation explained 70.4% (95%CI 69.2 to 71.6) of the variation in time to diagnosis of prostate cancer (R2); D statistic = 3.15 (95%CI 3.06 to 3.25); Harrell’s C = 0.917 (95%CI 0.915 to 0.919). Conclusion and relevance: The equation provides valid measures of absolute risk and had higher sensitivity both for incident prostate cancer, high grade cancers and prostate cancer mortality, than a simple approach based on age and PSA threshold.

Mortality following hip fractures in men with prostate cancer.

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 49-49
Author(s):  
Mieke Van Hemelrijck ◽  
Hans Garmo ◽  
Karl Michaelsson ◽  
Andreas Thorstenson ◽  
Pär Stattin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Hip Fractures ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Reference Population ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Mineral Density ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk

49 Background: Rapid loss of bone-mineral density is a known side-effect of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for prostate cancer (PCa). Hip fractures are also independently associated with risk of mortality. To our knowledge few population-based observational studies have yet investigated the risk of dying following fractures among men with PCa. We aimed to assess skeletal-related events and mortality in more detail by specifically studying the link between hip fractures in PCa men and risk of death. Methods: PCBaSe Sweden 2.0 is based on the National Prostate Cancer Register and contains age and county matched men free of PCa. We selected all men (n=14,205) who had been hospitalized with a hip fracture, as registered in the National Patient Register, between 2006 and 2010. A total of 2300 were diagnosed with PCa before the hip fracture and 66% of them were treated with ADT. The main outcome was death as registered in the National Cause of Death Register. The risk of death was estimated using multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards regression analyses and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) taking into account PCa risk category, history of fractures, civil status, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and treatment with bisphosphonates. Results: In the analysis for risk of death >90 days after a hip fracture, there was an increased risk of death among PCa men on ADT, especially those aged <84 years (e.g., HR at 3-6 months after hip fracture: 2.47 (95%CI: 1.85-3.30) compared to men free of PCa with a hip fracture). The SMRs showed that PCa men on ADT who got a hip fracture were seven times more likely to die than expected in the reference population of all men with PCa, whereas PCa men who were not on ADT and had a hip fracture were 13 times more likely to die than expected in this reference population. However, the absolute risk difference between men with and without a hip fracture was 30 per 1,000 person-years when evaluating the effect of a hip fracturing among men on ADT, whereas a hip fracture would cause an additional 20 per 1,000 person-years to die among PCa men without ADT as well as among men free of PCa. Conclusions: Our SMRs and absolute risk calculations show that hip fractures are more dangerous in PCa men treated with ADT than in PCa men without ADT or in men free of PCa.

Cardiovascular morbidity in a randomized trial comparing GnRH-agonist and antagonist among patients with advanced prostate cancer.

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 5015-5015
Author(s):  
David Margel ◽  
Avivit Peer ◽  
Yaara Ber ◽  
Sivan Sela ◽  
Liat Shavit Grievink ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Gnrh Agonist ◽  
Gnrh Antagonist ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Absolute Risk Reduction ◽  
Cerebrovascular Event ◽  
Gnrh Agonists ◽  
Open Label ◽  
Gnrh Antagonists

5015 Background: Androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) used in prostate-cancer may increase risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Limited preclinical and retrospective clinical data suggest that use of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH)-antagonist may be associated with lower risk of CVD compared to GnRH-agonist. Methods: We conducted a randomized open-label study comparing the one year incidence of major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular event (MACCE) in prostate-cancer patients with pre-existing CVD commencing on GnRH-agonists or antagonists. Patients were followed every 3 months for the development of MACCE defined as either death, myocardial infarction (MI), cerebrovascular event (CVA), or percutaneous-coronary intervention (PCI). Serum levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) were analyzed at baseline, 3, 6 and 12-months. Results: Eighty patients were enrolled (41 randomized to GnRH-antagonist, 39 to GnRH-agonist). Patients in both arms had similar age, baseline cardiovascular and prostate-cancer characteristics. During follow-up 15 patients developed a new cardiovascular event. Of these, nine patients developed MACCE (two deaths, one MI, two CVAs, and four PCI). Twenty percent (n = 8) of patients randomized to GnRH-agonists had a MACCE compared to 3% (n = 1) randomized to antagonists (log-rank p = 0.013). The absolute risk reduction for MACCE at 12 months using GnRH-antagonist was 18% (95%CI 5-31). Baseline levels of NTproBNP predicted events (AUC = 0.73 95%CI 0.54-0.91 p = 0.03) and increased over time only among patients with CV events. Conclusions: This is the first prospective study to test cardiovascular outcome among prostate-cancer patients receiving ADT. We demonstrated that in patients with pre-existing CVD, GnRH-antagonists was associated with development of fewer cardiovascular events compared to GnRH-agonists. Clinical trial information: NCT02475057.

Interpreting survival outcomes for African-American (AA) patients (pts) with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treated with sipuleucel-T (SIP-T) with number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB).

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 222-222
Author(s):  
Kelvin A. Moses ◽  
Scott C. Flanders ◽  
Matthew Harmon ◽  
Nancy N. Chang ◽  
Walter Rayford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Absolute Risk Reduction ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Cellular Immunotherapy ◽  
Number Needed To Treat ◽  
Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Receive Treatment

222 Background: AA men often present with more aggressive prostate cancer and are less likely to receive treatment, negatively affecting quality-of-life and overall survival (OS). Sipuleucel-T is an autologous cellular immunotherapy approved for asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic mCRPC. Data from the PROCEED registry showed that OS for AA pts treated with SIP-T was 9.3 mo longer than OS for Caucasian pts. In a prior subgroup analysis of Phase III data, AA pts realized a 30.7-mo difference in OS with SIP-T vs. placebo (PBO). We calculated the NNTB to further interpret the OS benefit in AA pts. Methods: Data were pooled from 3 Phase III mCRPC SIP-T trials (D9901, D9902A, and IMPACT). The absolute risk reduction (ARR) is calculated from Kaplan-Meier estimates at 12-, 24-, and 36-mo for all SIP-T subjects, and an AA cohort, receiving ≥1 infusion. NNTB, the inverse of the ARR, represents the number of pts needed to be treated with SIP-T to prevent 1 additional death compared to PBO. All NNTB values are rounded up. Results: Of the 737 pooled mCRPC pts enrolled, 488 men were randomized to SIP-T (n=33 AA), and 249 to PBO. Baseline clinical characteristics between the SIP-T and PBO groups were well balanced; however, compared to overall SIP-T and PBO, AA SIP-T pts were more likely to have received prior chemotherapy, lower hemoglobin, and better performance status. The NNTB at 12-mo was the same (13) for both the pooled SIP-T and AA treated cohort. At 24-mo, the NNTB values were 10 for pooled and 5 for AA. At 36-mo, an NNTB of 8 (pooled) and 3 (AA) SIP-T treatments prevented 1 additional death (Table). Conclusions: This NNTB analysis shows a favorable survival benefit for AA men treated with SIP-T and all treated SIP-T subjects. NNTB values declined over 3-years, suggesting durability of clinical benefit with SIP-T, and that it may address a known survival disparity in AA with prostate cancer. Studies with larger sample sizes may confirm if AA pts derive a greater OS benefit from SIP-T. Clinical trial information: NCT00065442. [Table: see text]

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