Distribution of new — the fifth and sixth technological ways in economy of regions
of Russia is investigated. For economic evaluation of technological structures
hysterical time series of real per capita GDP of Great Britain are used. Construction
of econometric models of cyclical trends has allowed establishing the date of the
beginning of the upward half-waves of the fourth and fifth Kondratieff cycles. For
the construction of econometric models of technological structures was assumed
that the beginning of upward half-waves cycles coincide with the beginning of the
upward wave of new orders, since the beginning of the dominance of another
way of life and a torque of the withering away of the old order. We used piecewise
linear model orders. By the simulation it was found, that the relic and fourth
technological orders provide a contribution to real GDP per capita value of 4000
Gehry-Hemis dollars in 1990. The contribution of the new — the fifth and sixth
in the Russian economy is estimated as the excess of the value of real per capita
GDP over the contribution of relic and fourth technological structures, evaluated
according to the UK. This has allowed for the first time to give an economic
assessment of the contribution of new orders in the Russian economy. It now
has exceeded 50%. By degree of distribution of new ways in the groups of regions
is irregular. The regional group in the economy where new ways are not observed,
the economic policy directed to the continued industrialization. In the regions,
where new ways make contribution to the economies, economic policy should
focus on the development of post-industrial economies.
Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis