Exogenous Shocks and Macroeconomic Policy Analysis using Applied Macro-Econometric Models in Africa

2016 ◽  
pp. 74-129
Author(s):  
Alemayehu Geda ◽  
Fredrik Huizinga ◽  
Addis Yimer
Keyword(s):  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
The Core ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
Empirical Framework

In this study we have developed a macro-econometric model for a typical supply constrained African economy. This is aimed at developing a theoretical and empirical template for such policy tools which are increasingly demanded in Africa. We have concretized it by building a macro-econometric model for Rwanda. The Rwanda macro-econometric model has 107 equations of which 72 are endogenous. In addition, a supplementary ARIMA based model with 33 equations for exogenous variable is built to make the model useful for forecasting. The fiscal, balance of payment and money supply block of the model is fairly disaggregated to offer an adequate picture of the macro economy. An econometric estimation of the core behavioral equations of the model using equilibrium [error]-correction approach is made with the database that stretches from 1960 to 2009. The model is similar to successful macro models in the region such as that of the KIPPRA-Treasury model of Kenya. It can also easily be further extended to the support budgeting, forecasting and macroeconomic policy analysis work at the relevant ministries in Africa such as the Ministry of Finance in Rwanda. We have managed to successfully solve the model from 1999 to 2009 and forecast major macro outcomes from 2010 to 2014. We have also used it to conduct a policy simulation exercise which is very important for policy makers such as those in Rwanda. We hope this model offers a theoretical and empirical framework for building macro model across Africa which is increasingly being demanded in many countries.

scholarly journals The attitude and vulnerability of people as determinants of poverty: The case of Lesotho

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-478
Author(s):  
EM Ueckermann ◽  
JN Blignaut
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
The Core ◽  
Economic Significance ◽  
The People

Lesotho is one of the poorest countries in the world.  After reviewing the growth and poverty debate, which suggests that policy reforms and economic growth have largely failed to contribute to the alleviation of poverty in Lesotho, the paper explores the core constraints to poverty reduction.  It is argued that the attitudes of the people in Lesotho and the extent to which they are vulnerable to exogenous shocks are important variables towards removing structural and fundamental constraints that impede poverty alleviation.  To quantify the values of attitude and vulnerability, an econometric model is constructed that uses an HSRC public perceptions survey in Lesotho.  The economic significance of this alternative measure provides a new dynamic on how to approach the issue of poverty alleviation in Lesotho.

Evaluation of Road Utilisation as Space For Holding Social Ceremonies in Indigenous Residential Area of Ogbomoso, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (March 2018) ◽  
Author(s):  
S.A Okanlawon ◽  
O.O Odunjo ◽  
S.A Olaniyan
Keyword(s):  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Noisy Environment ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Core ◽  
Local Roads ◽  
Strict Enforcement ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The One ◽  
The City ◽  
The Town

This study examined Residents’ evaluation of turning transport infrastructure (road) to spaces for holding social ceremonies in the indigenous residential zone of Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria. Upon stratifying the city into the three identifiable zones, the core, otherwise known as the indigenous residential zone was isolated for study. Of the twenty (20) political wards in the two local government areas of the town, fifteen (15) wards that were located in the indigenous zone constituted the study area. Respondents were selected along one out of every three (33.3%) of the Trunk — C (local) roads being the one mostly used for the purpose in the study area. The respondents were the residents, commercial motorists, commercial motorcyclists, and celebrants. Six hundred and forty-two (642) copies of questionnaire were administered and harvested on the spot. The Mean Analysis generated from the respondents’ rating of twelve perceived hazards listed in the questionnaire were then used to determine respondents’ most highly rated perceived consequences of the practice. These were noisy environment, Blockage of drainage by waste, and Endangering the life of the sick on the way to hospital; the most highly rated reasons why the practice came into being; and level of acceptability of the practice which was found to be very unacceptable in the study area. Policy makers should therefore focus their attention on strict enforcement of the law prohibiting the practice in order to ensure more cordial relationship among the citizenry, seeing citizens’ unacceptability of the practice in the study area.

Policy analysis in state governments in Mexico

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan C. Olmeda
Keyword(s):  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
State Level ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Mexican State ◽  
Policy Making Process ◽  
Mexican Politics

State governments have acquired a central role in Mexican politics and policy making during the last decades as a result of both democratization and decentralization. Nowadays state governments not only concentrate a significant portion of prerogatives and responsibilities in terms of service delivery but also control a substantial share of public spending. However, no systematic studies have been developed in order to understand how state governments function. This chapter provides an overview on how policies are crafted at the subnational (state) level in Mexico, the main actors taking place in the process and the way in which professional knowledge and advice influence policy makers. As it argues, the central role in the policy making process is played by the executive branch, being the governors the ones who have the final word in most important decisions. In addition, secretaries also concentrate power in particular policy areas. As a result of the lack of a professional civil service, however, a significant portion of policy analysis is performed by non-governmental actors (universities, NGOs and private firms). The chapter applies this framework to analyze a particular Mexican state, namely Mexico City.

scholarly journals Pengaruh pendapatan asli daerah, dana alokasi umum dan dana alokasi khusus terhadap belanja modal pada kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jambi

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-36
Author(s):  
Venny Tria Vanesha ◽  
Selamet Rahmadi ◽  
Parmadi Parmadi
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Directorate General ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
The Republic

This study aims to analyze the development of Local Own-Source Revenue (PAD), General Allocation Fund (DAU), Spesific Allocation Fund (DAK), and capital expenditure as well as the influence of PAD, DAU and DAK on capital expenditure in districts/cities in Jambi Province. Data is sourced from the Directorate-General of Regional Fiscal Balance, the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. Data were analyzed using panel data regression models. The results of the study found that simultaneously PAD, DAU, DAK had a significant effect on capital expenditure. However, only partially the DAU influences the capital expenditure of districts/ cities in Jambi Province.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Fluctuations & Economy of Pakistan, Time series Analysis (1989-2013)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (16) ◽  
pp. 474-489
Author(s):  
Muhammad Salih Memon ◽  
Raheem Bux Soomro ◽  
Sajid Hussain Mirani ◽  
Mansoor Ahmed Soomro
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Ministry Of Finance

Economic stability is remained on topmost priority of every country, and different measures were suggested by the researchers worldwide, by moving on the same track study was carried out to predict the currency valuation factors, data were collected from export promotion bureau, state bank of Pakistan, and ministry of finance for 25 years (1989-2013), by using linear regression; currency valuation as dependent variable, exports, changes in external debt, and total reserves as independent variables and concluded that only the exports of Pakistan is a right predictor of currency valuation of the country which policy makers must have incorporate in formation of economic policies and setting the targets before fiscal policy. 

Public Policy Making and Public Policy Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee S. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Policy ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Public Policy Analysis ◽  
Professional Class ◽  
The Many

This chapter reviews the development and growth of the policy-analytic profession. Historically, government decision makers have often called upon those with expertise to assist them in reaching their decisions. This chapter, however, concerns a new professional class of advisors that began developing during the 1950s in the United States. This new profession assists policy makers in understanding better their alternatives and relevant considerations for choosing among them. From here, the chapter offers some perspective on the research to date that has attempted to assess the effects of the profession—a perspective that emphasizes some important differences across the many types of governmental settings that utilize policy analysis, and the methodological difficulties that assessment efforts confront.

We Can Trust without Data, But We Are Accountable Only through Measurement

2017 ◽  
pp. 255-270
Author(s):  
Vahé A. Kazandjian
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Providers ◽  
Quality And Safety ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Core ◽  
Measurement Tools ◽  
Key Dimensions ◽  
Local Traditions ◽  
Analytical Tools ◽  
Probabilistic Nature ◽  
Nature Of Medicine

Traditional expectations about healthcare continue to be challenged by the umbrella concerns about accountability and trust. The core of this challenge is two-fold: healthcare providers have seen the absolute trust placed into their intentions and practices erode through the quantification of quality and safety of care, and, the recipients of care have been empowered with timely and specific data to demand accountability rather than unquestionably trust providers. The purpose of this chapter is to review the key dimensions of the operationalization of performance measurement and the translation of its findings to statements about quality and safety of care. The past four decades have seen the continuous discovery and refining of analytical tools to quantify what once was taken for granted: that patients always receive the best care possible. These tools have uncovered the probabilistic nature of medicine and the resulting nature of the relationships outcomes have to processes. Hence the expectations of patients, payers of care and policy makers require being continuously modified to reflect the limitations of medicine and healthcare. The education of various audiences as to what the measures mean not only is a necessary requisite for sound project design but also will determine how the accountability model is shaped in each environment based on the generic measurement tools results, local traditions of care and caring, and expectations about outcomes.

scholarly journals City Centrality, Migrants and Green Inovation Efficiency: Evidence from 106 Cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haisen Wang ◽  
Gangqiang Yang ◽  
Jiaying Qin
Keyword(s):  
Yangtze River ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Mediation Effect ◽  
Innovation Network ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Green Innovation ◽  
Spatial Econometric ◽  
The Core ◽  
Influence Curve ◽  
The Impact

Based on the panel data of 106 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China from 2007 to 2016, this paper explores the impact of city centrality on the green innovation efficiency and proves the mediation effect of migrants by using spatial econometric model. The results show that there are more and more innovation contacts between cities, and the innovation network is becoming more and more dense. The core cities of the downstream innovation network are mainly Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Wuxi, Changzhou, Suzhou and Hangzhou; the core cities in the midstream are mainly Wuhan, Changsha and Yichun; the core cities in the upstream are Chengdu and Bazhong. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between city centrality and green innovation efficiency. In addition, the influence curve of city centrality on the green innovation efficiency of surrounding cities is also inverted U-shaped. Cities with high city centrality attract a large number of migrants that come from cities with lower centrality to improve the green innovation efficiency, but the green innovation efficiency of cities with low city centrality will decline due to lack of talents.

scholarly journals From Rare to Neglected Diseases: A Sustainable and Inclusive Healthcare Perspective for Reframing the Orphan Drugs Issue

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marialuisa Saviano ◽  
Sergio Barile ◽  
Francesco Caputo ◽  
Mattia Lettieri ◽  
Stefania Zanda
Keyword(s):  
Orphan Drugs ◽  
Inclusive Development ◽  
Neglected Diseases ◽  
Sustainable Development Goal ◽  
Social Equality ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Development Goal ◽  
The Core ◽  
Development Perspective ◽  
Economic Considerations

This work is about how healthcare issues can be reframed from a sustainable and inclusive development perspective. Focusing on the case of orphan drugs and rare diseases, first, a country-based review of the main regulatory approaches to orphan drugs is conducted; then, the main contributions of the literature are reviewed to identify dominant views and the way the problem is more commonly framed. The main findings reveal that the dominant regulatory approaches and theoretical interpretations of the problem are mainly based on economic considerations. However, this does not seem to have led to very satisfactory results. Reflecting upon what the sustainability perspective can highlight with reference to healthcare, substantial connections between the orphan drugs issue and that of neglected diseases are highlighted. These connections suggest reframing the orphan drugs issue as a social equality and inclusiveness problem, hence the need to adopt a sustainable and inclusive development perspective. As a key sustainable development goal (SGD) to be shared by all nations, healthcare should always be approached by putting the principles of sustainable and inclusive development at the core of policy makers’ regulatory choices. Accordingly, we think that the orphan drugs issue, like that of neglected diseases, could be better faced by adopting a social equality and inclusiveness perspective.

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