Reduction of the Duration of Kondratyev Cycles in Non-Leading Countries

The estimates of the duration of Kondratyev cycles in countries with different levels of technical and economic development are obtained. The regularity of the reduction in the duration of Kondratieff cycles are revealed, which increases more, when the corresponding Kondratyev cycle begins to form in them later. For each year of the displacement of the third cycle, the duration of the third cycle reduces by an average of 0.6 years. For each year of the displacement of the 4th cycle, the duration of the third cycle reduces by an average of 0.8 years. In countries — the leaders of the world economy in terms of labor productivity, the reduction in the duration of Kondratyev cycles does not take place. The regularity of reducing the length of Kondratyev cycles justifies the existence of the possibility of accelerated economic development.

Kondratieff Waves and Technological Modes in Australia`s Economy

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to determine the time of beginning of Kondratieff waves and origin of new technological modes and their productivity. The regression analysis of the time series of Australia real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 allowed to determine the date of beginning of the third, fourth and fifth half-waves of Kondratieff cycles and the date of origin of the fourth, fifth and sixth technological modes in Australia`s economy. The results of the analysis showed that the origin of the fourth technological mode in Australia`s economy occurred in the late XIX century, the fifth — in the 1950s, the sixth — in the late XX century. The modeling of technological modes` productivity allowed determining the productivity of relict and modern technological modes in the economy of Australia. The results showed that the productivity of relict modes in Australia`s economy is 3465 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the fourth mode is 4437 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990, the fifth — 8874 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the sixth mode in the economy of Australia is 26 888 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The results of the research may be used in order to evaluate the productivity of modern technological modes in Russian economy.

New Technological Ways in the Regions of Russia

Distribution of new — the fifth and sixth technological ways in economy of regions of Russia is investigated. For economic evaluation of technological structures hysterical time series of real per capita GDP of Great Britain are used. Construction of econometric models of cyclical trends has allowed establishing the date of the beginning of the upward half-waves of the fourth and fifth Kondratieff cycles. For the construction of econometric models of technological structures was assumed that the beginning of upward half-waves cycles coincide with the beginning of the upward wave of new orders, since the beginning of the dominance of another way of life and a torque of the withering away of the old order. We used piecewise linear model orders. By the simulation it was found, that the relic and fourth technological orders provide a contribution to real GDP per capita value of 4000 Gehry-Hemis dollars in 1990. The contribution of the new — the fifth and sixth in the Russian economy is estimated as the excess of the value of real per capita GDP over the contribution of relic and fourth technological structures, evaluated according to the UK. This has allowed for the first time to give an economic assessment of the contribution of new orders in the Russian economy. It now has exceeded 50%. By degree of distribution of new ways in the groups of regions is irregular. The regional group in the economy where new ways are not observed, the economic policy directed to the continued industrialization. In the regions, where new ways make contribution to the economies, economic policy should focus on the development of post-industrial economies.

The Finnish Economy Through the Prism of the Theory of Long Waves

The article presents the research results of Kondratieff cycles in the economy of Finland on the basis of real GDP per capita over the period of 1860–2008 years. The using of economic and mathematical modeling has allowed estimating the power of long duration business cycles, revealing the chronological framework of long waves: the third, fourth and fifth. Kondratieff’s theory has served as a methodological basis for the study of processes: the emergence, the domination and the withering away of technological structures. Regression analysis has allowed establishing the productivity of different technological structures in the Finnish economy.

Theory of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development

The purpose of this study was to summarize theoretical propositions about the main stages of a long-term technical and economic development. Stages of modern technical and economic development are the technological orders. The life cycle of technological order lasts for three Kondratieff cycles. At the same time in the economy, there are three technological orders. The difference between orders is in ratio and efficiency of the use of substances, energy and information, the level of labor productivity, capital intensity and energy intensity of production of goods. The beginning of the formation of the first order can be attributed to the 1720s years. Industrial economy is the first, second, third and fourth technological orders. These provide a way of gradual growth of labor productivity by increasing capital intensity and the energy intensity of the national production. The postindustrial economy is the fifth, sixth and subsequent order. These provide a way of gradual growth of labor productivity due to an increase in the volume of the used information. The capital intensity and energy in stages of national production reduces at the expense of human capital and new technologies.

Studying Formation of Technological Modes in the Economy of Canada

The paper analyzes how the dates of transition of technological modes are formed, based on the Kondratieff cycles. The study comprises the historical period of 1870–2008. For the mentioned period it is possible to identify the dates of transition to the next technological mode with clear reference to the concrete data, concerning the third, the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes. As the study shows, the use of Kondratieff cycles makes it is possible to clarify exact dates of technological modes shifts for certain time periods. This, in turn, makes it possible to construct predictive models to identify how much time will it take for the next technological mode to origin and also the terms of shift to the next mode, with reference to the exact dates.