The relative impact of the US and Japanese business cycles on the Australian economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun-Hoon Lee ◽  
Hyeon-Seung Huh ◽  
David Harris
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Relative Impact ◽  
The Us ◽  
Australian Economy

Firm innovation and capitalist dialectics: The economics of Nina Shapiro

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 467-477
Author(s):  
Radhika Balakrishnan ◽  
William Milberg
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Firm Behavior ◽  
Firm Innovation ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Social Concept ◽  
Keynesian Economics ◽  
Dialectical Approach ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
Organization Of Production

This essay is a review of and tribute to the life and contributions of Nina Shapiro, who passed away this year. Shapiro was an American Post-Keynesian economist, who was a bridge figure in radical economics, connecting Marx to Keynes, Schumpeter to Kaldor, the behavior of the firm to the dynamics of the macroeconomy, and the process of innovation to the organization of production and accumulation. She was seminal to important moments in the history of radical economics in the US, including the formation of the Hegel-inspired journal Social Concept in the 1980s and the Rutgers University’s Post-Keynesian circle in the 1980s and 1990s. Shapiro’s deeply philosophical and dialectical approach to firm behavior, innovation, and business cycles led her to theorize the “revolutionary character” of Post-Keynesian economics and to formulate a critique of the competitive neoclassical firm which, she argued, is at odds with the logic of capitalism in which firms seek to make profit and grow. JEL Codes: B24, B32, B51, B55

scholarly journals Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications

2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (3) ◽  
pp. 691-723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Broda ◽  
David E Weinstein
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
Large Sector ◽  
Product Creation ◽  
Cost Of Living Index

This paper describes the extent of product creation and destruction in a large sector of the US economy. We find four times more entry and exit in product markets than is found in labor markets because most product turnover happens within firms. Net product creation is strongly procyclical and primarily driven by creation rather than destruction. We find that a cost-of-living index that takes product turnover into account is 0.8 percentage points per year lower than a “fixed goods” price index like the CPI. The procyclicality of the bias implies that business cycles are more volatile than indicated by official statistics. (JEL E31, E32, L11, O31)

A Note on Relative Prices and Income Distribution over the US Business Cycle: 1857–2009

2020 ◽  
pp. 048661342096286
Author(s):  
Claudio Alberto Castelo Branco Puty
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Industrial Economy ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Unit Labor Costs ◽  
Jel Classifications

This paper investigates the relation between relative prices and the income distribution by examining variations in output and prices occurred over thirty-three US business cycles from 1857 to 2009. Using a broad database, the author shows that average relative prices in twenty-seven industries of the US economy presented a remarkably smaller variation than the corresponding variation in output levels, profits and wages. These time-series results, although not conclusive, may provide additional empirical evidence of the Ricardian claim that even relative market prices in an industrial economy are strongly dominated by the correspondent integrated unit labor costs and that changes along a wage-profit schedule will play only a secondary role in their determination. JEL classifications: E11, E32

scholarly journals Consumer Income and Expenditure Influenced by Business Cycles: A Comparison of Korea and the US

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-59
Author(s):  
Seo Jeong Kim ◽  
Michael Hann ◽  
Chorong Youn ◽  
Kyu-Hye Lee
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-66
Author(s):  
Puneet Vasta
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Time Difference ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Us

Trade agreements do not necessitate business cycle comovement. Focusing on NAFTA, we investigate whether business cycles in Canada, Mexico, and the US have become more synchronous after the landmark trade agreement came into effect in 1994. To this end, using the newly-developed Hamilton filter, we decompose the real GDPs of the three countries to derive their business cycle components; then, we conduct time-difference analyses, which illuminate correlations at different time intervals, to study business cycle synchronization. We find that business cycles in Mexico and the US have become positively correlated after NAFTA—they were weakly and negatively correlated during the pre-NAFTA period. Contrastingly, correlations amongst the US and Canadian business cycles have weakened during the post-NAFTA period; nevertheless, these two countries' business cycles continue to be tightly and positively correlated. The oft-used Hodrick-Prescott filter is utilized to confirm the robustness of the results—the two filters lead to similar conclusions.

Confucius confusion: analyst forecast dispersion and business cycles

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-145
Author(s):  
Raymond Cox ◽  
Ajit Dayanandan ◽  
Han Donker ◽  
John R. Nofsinger
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Analyst Forecast Dispersion

PurposeFinancial analysts have been found to be overconfident. The purpose of this paper is to study the ramifications of that overconfidence on the dispersion of earnings estimates as a predictor of the US business cycle.Design/methodology/approachWhether aggregate analyst forecast dispersion contains information about turning points in business cycles, especially downturns, is examined by utilizing the analyst earnings forecast dispersion metric. The primary analysis derives from logit regression and Markov switching models. The analysis controls for sentiment (consumer confidence), output (industrial production), and financial indicators (stock returns and turnover). Analyst data come from Institutional Brokers Estimate System, while the economic data are available at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Economic Data site.FindingsA rise in the dispersion of analyst forecasts is a significant predictor of turning points in the US business cycle. Financial analyst uncertainty of earnings estimate contains crucial information about the risks of US business cycle turning points. The results are consistent with some analysts becoming overconfident during the expansion period and misjudging the precision of their information, thus over or under weighting various sources of information. This causes the disagreement among analysts measured as dispersion.Originality/valueThis is the first study to show that analyst forecast dispersion contributions valuable information to predictions of economic downturns. In addition, that dispersion can be attributed to analyst overconfidence.

scholarly journals Uncertainty, agency costs and investment behavior in the Euro area and in the USA

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-143
Author(s):  
Johannes Strobel ◽  
Kevin D. Salyer ◽  
Gabriel S. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Agency Cost ◽  
Investment Behavior ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the credit channel effects on investment behavior for the US and the Euro area. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and calibrates a version of the Carlstrom and Fuerst’s (1997) agency cost model of business cycles with time-varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect capital production. To highlight the differences between the US and European financial sectors, the paper focuses on two key components of the lending channel: the risk premium associated with bank loans and the bankruptcy rates. Findings This paper shows that the effects of minor differences in the credit market translate into large, persistent and asymmetric fluctuations in real and financial variables and depend on the type of shocks. The results imply that the Euro areas supply elasticities for capital are less elastic than that of the USA following a technology shock. Finally, the authors find that the adverse impact of uncertainty shocks is heterogeneous across countries and amplified by the steady-state bankruptcy rate and risk premium. Originality/value This paper quantifies the effects of uncertainty shocks when there is a credit channel due to asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers for the Euro area countries, and then compares the results to that of the USA. This paper shows that financial accelerator mechanism could potentially play a significant role in business cycles in the Euro area. This result directly lends one to conclude the following: the credit channel that affects the financial sector does indeed matter for macroeconomic behavior, and that policy makers should be attentive in smoothing out uncertainties if the economic policies are to lower the business and financial cycle volatilities.

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