Design of risk index maps as a tool to prevent forest fires in the hill-side zone of Galicia (NW Spain)

Forest fires can cause enormous damage, such as deforestation and environmental pollution, even with a single occurrence. It takes a lot of effort and long time to restore areas damaged by wildfires. Therefore, it is crucial to know the forest fire risk of a region to appropriately prepare and respond to such disastrous events. The purpose of this study is to develop an hourly forest fire risk index (HFRI) with 1 km spatial resolution using accessibility, fuel, time, and weather factors based on Catboost machine learning over South Korea. HFRI was calculated through an ensemble model that combined an integrated model using all factors and a meteorological model using weather factors only. To confirm the generalized performance of the proposed model, all forest fires that occurred from 2014 to 2019 were validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values through one-year-out cross-validation. The AUC value of HFRI ensemble model was 0.8434, higher than the meteorological model. HFRI was compared with the modified version of Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) used in the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems and Daily Weather Index (DWI), South Korea’s current forest fire risk index. When compared to DWI and the revised FFMC, HFRI enabled a more spatially detailed and seasonally stable forest fire risk simulation. In addition, the feature contribution to the forest fire risk prediction was analyzed through the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value of Catboost. The contributing variables were in the order of relative humidity, elevation, road density, and population density. It was confirmed that the accessibility factors played very important roles in forest fire risk modeling where most forest fires were caused by anthropogenic factors. The interaction between the variables was also examined.

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Bayesian Classification of a Meteorological Risk Index for Forest Fires: DSR

geoENV VI – Geostatistics for Environmental Applications - Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics ◽

10.1007/978-1-4020-6448-7_24 ◽

2008 ◽

pp. 283-294 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

R.M. Durão ◽

A. Soares ◽

J.M.C. Pereira ◽

J.A. Corte-Real ◽

M.F.E.S. Coelho

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Risk Index ◽

Bayesian Classification

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Community Development as Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts through the Disaster Resilient Village (Destana) Program in Nganjuk Regency

Journal of Local Government Issues ◽

10.22219/logos.v4i1.13116 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 60-76

Author(s):

Novianti Luluk Mahbubah ◽

Mochamad Faizal Rizki ◽

Haura Atthahara

Keyword(s):

Community Development ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Risk Index ◽

Disaster Risk ◽

Regional Government ◽

Development Activity ◽

The Face ◽

Strong Winds ◽

The Impact ◽

Depth Interviews

The high disaster risk index in Nganjuk District shows the magnitude of potential casualties and the impact of the emergence of disasters that have occurred. That is because Nganjuk Regency is one area that has a high potential for catastrophic threats with low land and mountain topography, causing several disasters such as floods, landslides, land and forest fires, drought and strong winds / whirlwinds plus still low public knowledge in disaster management. Therefore the Regional Government through the Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah (BPBD) Nganjuk District is implementing the Desa Tangguh Bencana (Destana) program in disaster-prone villages in Nganjuk Regency. Where the Destana program is a community development activity to reduce the risk of existing disasters so that the community is expected to be resilient in the face of disasters. In research using qualitative research methods with a descriptive approach. Data collection techniques used were field observations, in-depth interviews, and documentation. The results of this study indicate that the Destana program established by the BPBD Nganjuk District by developing disaster-prone communities has been able to reduce the risk of existing disasters by forming resilient and independent communities in the face of disasters.

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FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT OF RIVER KABUL AND SWAT CATCHMENT AREA: DISTRICT CHARSADDA, PAKISTAN

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-4-w9-105-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol XLII-4/W9 ◽

pp. 105-113 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

T. Bibi ◽

F. Nawaz ◽

A. Abdul Rahman ◽

K. Azahari Razak ◽

A. Latif

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Catchment Area ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Risk Index ◽

Hazard Mapping ◽

Union Council ◽

Hazard Vulnerability ◽

Risk Maps ◽

Index Maps ◽

River Kabul

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Pakistan is prone to natural hazards including floods, in particular, affecting millions of people each year across the country. Patterns from recent years suggest the intensity of flooding are increasing and may continue more aggressively during the coming years because of increased magnitude of the monsoon rains and identified climatic changes in the region. Mapping of flood hazard is essential for planning and mitigation purpose. However, only flood hazard mapping is not sufficient to assess the magnitude of risk to lives and property. Risk mapping is an integral part of pre and post disaster management. Furthermore, the Earth Observation (EO) data could be helpful to update flood risk maps time to time by covering many aspects e.g. population concentration areas, critical infrastructure and commercial areas, to enhance the preparedness planning and mitigation measure against risk of flood. Pakistan has experienced the devastating flood in 2010 due to unexpected heavy rainfall in the monsoon season with enormous losses to property lives and infrastructure in several districts. The Union council Agra, District Charsadda was among the affected most districts by riverine and flash floods. Additionally, growing population in flood plains is another threat to the district. However, to cope with this situation there is immense need to detect risk index to prevent further damages caused by such floods. This study aims to prepare the hazard, vulnerability and risk index for River Kabul and Swat catchment area of union council Agra, Charsadda. the flood risk was identified, and risk index maps were prepared by executing a methodology for assessing risk, based on the physical exposure of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of critical assets to flood water. Explicitly, spatial flood risk index maps were produced with the help of analytical spatial modeling by considering the areas exposed to flood hazard, morphological characteristics and socio-economic indicators. The produced flood risk maps were verified through visual examination through 3D city flood maps. Results illustrate that the areas of higher flood risk overlapped with the areas of high flood hazard along with high population density and socio-economic exposure to vulnerability.</p>

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Validation of MEDALUS Fire Risk Index using Forest Fires Statistics through a multivariate approach

Ecological Indicators ◽

10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.08.027 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 48 ◽

pp. 365-369 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Luca Salvati ◽

Agostino Ferrara

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Risk Index ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Multivariate Approach ◽

Fire Risk Index

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Fire Drivers Affecting Forest Fire Occurrences in the Tropical Mixed Broad-leaved Forests of Nepal

Applied Environmental Research ◽

10.35762/aer.2021.43.4.7 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 84-99

Author(s):

Krishna Bahadur Bhujel ◽

Rejina Maskey Byanju ◽

Ambika P. Gautam ◽

Ramesh Prasad Sapkota ◽

Udhab Raj Khadka

Keyword(s):

Forest Fire ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Public Perception ◽

Sustainable Forest Management ◽

Forest Fire Management ◽

Lower Elevation ◽

Sal Forest ◽

Burnt Areas ◽

The Hill ◽

Anthropogenic Drivers

Forest fires triggered by various natural and anthropogenic drivers are increasing and threatening forest ecosystems across the globe. In Nepal, the high value Tropical Mixed Broad-leaved Forests are prone to fire caused by both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Thus, understanding fire drivers and their effect is important for the sustainable forest fire management. However, the preceding studies on forest specific fire drivers and their effect are limited. This research has identified the fire drivers and assessed their effect to fire occurrences in the Tropical Mixed Broad-leaved Forests of Nawalparasi District, Nepal. Fire drivers were identified and prioritized by participatory approaches. The fire incidences and burnt areas were obtained from the MODIS fire data (2001–2017). The results revealed altogether 20 drivers including eight natural and 12 anthropogenic. Based on the public perception and magnitude of forest fire, among the natural drivers, temperature, precipitation, forest fuel, aspect, elevation and slope were the major drivers. Likewise, among the anthropogenic drivers, forest distance from roads and settlements showed significant effect. The natural drivers, ambient temperature >30ºC and annual precipitation <2400 mm, revealed signi-ficant impacts on forest fire. Likewise, forests situated at lower elevation (<500 m), and southern and eastern aspects were highly vulnerable to fire. Considering anthropogenic drivers, forest lying within 500 m from the roads and settlements were highly vulnerable to fire. Among the forest types, the Hill Sal Forest was more affected. Future strategies should address the major fire drivers, construction of adequate fire lines and conservation ponds for the sustainable forest management.

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Liquefaction Potential Determination and Hazard Mapping Based on Standard Penetration Tests in Long Beach and Tuzla Regions of Cyprus

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1077123/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Onur Selcukhan ◽

Abdullah Ekinci

Keyword(s):

Risk Index ◽

Soil Layer ◽

Standard Penetration Test ◽

Design Stage ◽

Hazard Mapping ◽

Long Beach ◽

Risk Area ◽

Liquefaction Potential ◽

Liquefiable Soil ◽

Index Maps

Abstract This study proposes an improved and precise liquefaction risk index for the evaluation and translation of outcomes into maps to establish susceptible liquefiable areas. Cyprus is the third largest and populated island in the Mediterranean Sea, which is rapidly expanding in every way. Significant infrastructures, such as hotels, educational institutions, and large residential complexes are being built. Historically, two major earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.5 Mw struck the island in 1953 and 1996. Potential liquefaction areas have been detected on the island's east coast as a result of these significant earthquakes. In this case study, the liquefaction potential of Tuzla and Long Beach in the northern part of Cyprus is estimated using the standard penetration test (SPT) data from more than 200 boreholes at different locations at the sites. The overall results are presented in a liquefaction risk index obtained from the factor of safety (FS) coefficient. It is clear that both study areas are susceptible to liquefaction. Thus, risk index maps are prepared to identify susceptible liquefiable areas. In addition, the average factor of the safety line was introduced for both sites to create a correlation between the liquefaction risk area and FS values of every borehole. It is clear that the adopted approach precisely provides the suspected depth of the liquefiable soil layer when compared with the risk index maps. Additionally, the results prove that the liquefaction potential must be considered during the design stage of new infrastructure in these areas.

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