Chapter 14 Seismic monitoring of volcanic activity and prediction of volcanic eruptions

2003 ◽  
pp. 235-252
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Seismic Monitoring

scholarly journals Volcanic Eruptions Caused by Extreme Weather:The Role of Super Rainfall

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuo Uchida
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Seismic Monitoring ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Phreatic Eruptions

Abstract Volcanic eruptions are well known as sources of catastrophic damage and loss of life. In general, eruptions are understood to be caused by the movement of magma upward through the volcano, until it reaches the crater or a secondary vent where it is released explosively to the environment. In the case of steam (phreatic) eruptions, the exposure of water to the extreme heat injects significant amounts of energy into the system resulting in violent explosions and substantial destruction (Leonid et al. 1995)1 .Often, there is no warning on existing seismic monitoring networks of the impending eruption. However, we demonstrate a correlation between extreme rainfall and volcanic activity at Mt. Ontake in Japan and propose that phreatic eruptions are due to a movement of water rather than magma. This work demonstrates the importance of monitoring rainfall on volcanoes to prevent loss of human life in eruptions that may follow periods of excessive precipitation.

scholarly journals Near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring: insights into global explosive volcanic eruptive activity through analysis of Volcanic Ash Advisories

2021 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Engwell ◽  
L. Mastin ◽  
A. Tupper ◽  
J. Kibler ◽  
P. Acethorp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Process Data ◽  
Cloud Monitoring ◽  
Satellite Sensors ◽  
Volcanic Cloud

AbstractUnderstanding the location, intensity, and likely duration of volcanic hazards is key to reducing risk from volcanic eruptions. Here, we use a novel near-real-time dataset comprising Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) issued over 10 years to investigate global rates and durations of explosive volcanic activity. The VAAs were collected from the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) worldwide. Information extracted allowed analysis of the frequency and type of explosive behaviour, including analysis of key eruption source parameters (ESPs) such as volcanic cloud height and duration. The results reflect changes in the VAA reporting process, data sources, and volcanic activity through time. The data show an increase in the number of VAAs issued since 2015 that cannot be directly correlated to an increase in volcanic activity. Instead, many represent increased observations, including improved capability to detect low- to mid-level volcanic clouds (FL101–FL200, 3–6 km asl), by higher temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution satellite sensors. Comparison of ESP data extracted from the VAAs with the Mastin et al. (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 186:10–21, 2009a) database shows that traditional assumptions used in the classification of volcanoes could be much simplified for operational use. The analysis highlights the VAA data as an exceptional resource documenting global volcanic activity on timescales that complement more widely used eruption datasets.

scholarly journals Volcanic activity sparks the Arctic Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Weizheng Qu ◽  
Fei Huang ◽  
Jinping Zhao ◽  
Ling Du ◽  
Yong Cao
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Vortex System ◽  
Significant Fluctuation ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

AbstractThe parasol effect of volcanic dust and aerosol caused by volcanic eruption results in the deepening and strengthening of the Arctic vortex system, thus stimulating or strengthening the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Three of the strongest AOs in more than a century have been linked to volcanic eruptions. Every significant fluctuation of the AO index (AOI = ΔH_middle latitudes − ΔH_Arctic) for many years has been associated with a volcanic eruption. Volcanic activity occurring at different locations in the Arctic vortex circulation will exert different effects on the polar vortex.

SedCas_Volcano: Simulating decadal patterns of lahar hazard and sediment transfer following volcanic disturbance in the Belham River Valley, Montserrat 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Christie ◽  
Georgina Bennett ◽  
Jacob Hirschberg ◽  
Jenni Barclay ◽  
Richard Herd
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Recovery Cycle ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Volcanic Disturbance ◽  
Multi Phase ◽  
Disturbance Recovery

<p>Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the most significant natural disturbances to landscapes on Earth. The widespread and rapid influx of pyroclastic sediment, together with subsequent changes to topography and vegetation cover, drives markedly heightened runoff responses to rainfall and increased downstream water and sediment fluxes; principally by way of hazardous lahars. The nature and probability of lahar occurrence under given rainfall conditions evolves as the landscape responds and subsequently recovers following the disturbance. The relationship between varying sediment supply, rainfall patterns, vegetation cover and lahar activity is complex, and impedes forecasting efforts made in the interest of hazard and land use management. Thus, developing an improved understanding of how these systems evolve in response to volcanic eruptions is of high importance.</p><p>Here we present SedCas_Volcano[MOU1] , a conceptual sediment cascade model, designed to simulate the first-order trends, such as magnitude-frequency distributions or seasonal patterns, in lahar activity and sediment transport. We use the Belham River Valley, Montserrat, as a case study. This small (~15km<sup>2</sup>) catchment has been repeatedly disturbed by five phases of volcanic activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano since 1995. The multi-phase nature of this eruption, together with the varying nature and magnitude of disturbances throughout the eruption, has driven a complex disturbance-recovery cycle, which is further compounded by inter-annual climatic variations (e.g. ENSO). Lahars have occurred frequently in response to rainfall in the Belham River Valley, and their occurrence has evolved through the repeated disturbance-recovery cycle. This activity has resulted in significant net valley floor aggradation and widening, consequent burial and destruction of buildings and infrastructure, as well as coastal aggradation of up to ~250m. Within SedCas_Volcano, we account for evolving sediment supply, vegetation cover and rainfall, to simulate the lahar activity and channel change observed in the Belham River Valley since January 2001. Following this, we test the model under different hypothetical eruptive scenarios. [MOU2] Our goal is to assess the efficacy of such models for reproducing patterns of lahar activity and geomorphic change in river systems that are repeatedly disturbed by volcanic activity.</p>

scholarly journals Simulation of Historic Glacier Variations with a Simple Climate-Glacier Model

1988 ◽  
Vol 34 (118) ◽  
pp. 333-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Oerlemans
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Solar Variability ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Modelling Studies

AbstractGlacier variations during the last few centuries have shown a marked coherence over the globe. Characteristic features are the maximum stand somewhere in the middle of the nineteenth century, and the steady retreat afterwards (with some minor interruptions depending on the particular region). In many papers, qualitative statements have been made about the causes of these fluctuations. Lower temperatures associated with solar variability and/or volcanic activity are the most popular explanations. In particular, the statistical relation between glacier activity and major volcanic eruptions appears to be strong.In this paper, an attempt is made to simulate recent glacier fluctations with a physics-based model. A simple climate model, calculating perturbations of surface-radiation balance and air temperature (not necessarily in phase!), is coupled to a schematic time-dependent glacier model. The climate model is forced by volcanic activity (Greenland acidity and/or Lamb’s dust-veil index) and greenhouse warming. Solar variability was not considered, because its effect on climate has still not been demonstrated in a convincing way. The output is translated into variations in equilibrium-line altitude, driving the glacier model.The simulated variations in glacier length show good agreement with the observed record, but the amplitude is too small. This is improved when mass-balance gradients are assumed to be larger in warmer climates. Compared to recently published modelling studies of particular glaciers, in which series of local parameters (e.g. tree-ring width and temperature) were used as forcing, the present simulation is better. This suggests that the radiation balance is a decisive factor with regard to glacier variations on longer time-scales. The model experiments lend support to the results of Porter (1986), who concluded from a more qualitative study that a strong relation exists between periods of increased volcanic activity and glacier advances.A comparison of some selected runs shows that, according to the present model, the greenhouse warming would be responsible for about 50% of the glacier retreat observed over the last 100 years.

A continuous 250-year record of volcanic activity from Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

2002 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.J. Zhang ◽  
Z.Q. Li ◽  
C.D. Xiao ◽  
D.H. Qin ◽  
H.A. Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Major Ions ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
High Definition ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
High Accumulation

A 51.85 m ice core collected from site LGB65 (accumulation rate 127 kg m−2 a−1, mean annual temperature −33.1°C) in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica, during the 1996–97 Chinese First Antarctic Inland Expedition has been analysed for chemical composition and oxygen isotope ratio. Based on the high definition of seasonal variations of major ions, the ice core was dated with errors within ± 3 years. The continuous sulphate analysis of the ice core provides an annually resolved proxy history of southern hemisphere volcanism in the past 250 years. High nssSO42−, concentrations seem to be well correlated to some explosive volcanic eruptions, such as Tambora (AD 1815), Coseguina (AD 1835), Krakatoa (AD 1883) and Tarawera (AD 1886). In comparison with other volcanic records, it seems that nssSO42− concentration data provide a better proxy for detecting volcanic activity than nssSO42− fluxes in low and intermediate accumulation regions, however, in high accumulation regions, small and moderate events may be more identifiable using of nssSO42− flux data.

scholarly journals On the agency of water in volcanic eruptions; with some observations on the thickness of the Earth's crust from a geological point of view; and on the primary cause of volcanic action

1887 ◽  
Vol 41 (246-250) ◽  
pp. 117-173 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Earth’S Crust ◽  
Difference Of Opinion ◽  
Established Fact ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Earth's Crust

The important part played by water in volcanic eruptions is a well recognised and established fact, but there is great difference of opinion among geologists as to whether water should be considered the primary or secondary agent, and as to the mode, time, and place of its intervention. The prevailing opinion in this country is that water is the primary cause of volcanic activity. Whichever view may be adopted, the subject is one which is so largely concerned with the laws regulating the underground circulation of water, that the consideration of the two questions must proceed pari passu .

scholarly journals Sound Waves Help Scientists Track Volcanic Eruptions

Eos ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
JoAnna Wendel
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Sound Waves

When sound waves hit the ground, they shake seismometers like earthquake waves. Scientists can now use these sound-induced seismic waves to investigate volcanic activity.

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