Future scenarios of development and climate change

2005 ◽  
pp. 56-98
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Scenarios

scholarly journals Resilient optimal design of multi-family buildings in future climate scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 06006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Bilardo ◽  
Maria Ferrara ◽  
Enrico Fabrizio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Optimal Design ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Global Cost ◽  
The Cost

In Europe, the second recast of EPBD promotes long-term strategies to accelerate the path to nZEBs, fostering the cost-optimized building design already suggested in the EPBD first recast. Since the nZEB design is a complex optimization problem that is subjected to uncertainty in its boundary conditions (climate, technologies, market, ...), it is necessary to guarantee the resilience of the NZEB optimal design to possible variations of future scenarios, especially as regards the climate change. This work applies the new EdeSSOpt methodology (Energy Demand and Supply Simultaneous Optimization) developed by the Authors aiming at investigating the variation of the cost-optimized multi-family building design in different Italian future climate scenarios, therefore considering parameters related to the building envelope, energy systems and renewable energy sources. The method is implemented into the TRNSYS® (energy model), GenOpt (optimizer) and WeatherShift® (future climate scenario generator) tools. The resulting cost-optimal solutions in future scenarios are related to a lower global cost and a decreased total primary energy consumption. Beyond the future trends of such performance indexes, the fact that most of technical solutions associated with the optimal solutions have not changed with the studied climate scenarios, indicates a certain resilience of the optimal design variables facing climate change.

scholarly journals Krill, climate, and contrasting future scenarios for Arctic and Antarctic fisheries

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (7) ◽  
pp. 1934-1955 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret M. McBride ◽  
Padmini Dalpadado ◽  
Kenneth F. Drinkwater ◽  
Olav Rune Godø ◽  
Alistair J. Hobday ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Geological Structure ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Life History Strategies ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Zooplankton Species ◽  
Commercial Fish

Abstract Arctic and Antarctic marine systems have in common high latitudes, large seasonal changes in light levels, cold air and sea temperatures, and sea ice. In other ways, however, they are strikingly different, including their: age, extent, geological structure, ice stability, and foodweb structure. Both regions contain very rapidly warming areas and climate impacts have been reported, as have dramatic future projections. However, the combined effects of a changing climate on oceanographic processes and foodweb dynamics are likely to influence their future fisheries in very different ways. Differences in the life-history strategies of the key zooplankton species (Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean and Calanus copepods in the Arctic) will likely affect future productivity of fishery species and fisheries. To explore future scenarios for each region, this paper: (i) considers differing characteristics (including geographic, physical, and biological) that define polar marine ecosystems and reviews known and projected impacts of climate change on key zooplankton species that may impact fished species; (ii) summarizes existing fishery resources; (iii) synthesizes this information to generate future scenarios for fisheries; and (iv) considers the implications for future fisheries management. Published studies suggest that if an increase in open water during summer in Arctic and Subarctic seas results in increased primary and secondary production, biomass may increase for some important commercial fish stocks and new mixes of species may become targeted. In contrast, published studies suggest that in the Southern Ocean the potential for existing species to adapt is mixed and that the potential for the invasion of large and highly productive pelagic finfish species appears low. Thus, future Southern Ocean fisheries may largely be dependent on existing species. It is clear from this review that new management approaches will be needed that account for the changing dynamics in these regions under climate change.

The Antarctic fish Harpagifer antarcticus under current temperatures and salinities and future scenarios of climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 37-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge M. Navarro ◽  
Kurt Paschke ◽  
Alejandro Ortiz ◽  
Luis Vargas-Chacoff ◽  
Luis Miguel Pardo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Antarctic Fish ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
The Antarctic

scholarly journals Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Ghini ◽  
Emília Hamada ◽  
Mário José Pedro Júnior ◽  
Renata Ribeiro do Valle Gonçalves
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Plant Diseases ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Hemileia Vastatrix ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Coffee Plants

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

scholarly journals How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 427-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma J. Windfeld ◽  
James D. Ford ◽  
Lea Berrang-Ford ◽  
Graham McDowell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Local Perceptions ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments ◽  
Socioeconomic Model

Community-level vulnerability assessments (VAs) are important for understanding how populations experience vulnerabilities to climate change in different ways given local socioeconomic and environmental factors. Despite recent expansion in the literature that evaluates vulnerability at the local level, approaches to understanding future scenarios and to integrating climatic and nonclimatic factors are inconsistent and often lack clear methodological information. This study utilized systematic review methods to characterize and compare future scenarios and the integration of climatic and nonclimatic stimuli in community-focused VAs published over the last five years. Five common methods for assessing future dimensions of vulnerability were characterized. Key challenges regarding sources and scales of information were highlighted alongside methods to integrate data spanning climatic and nonclimatic information at scales ranging from local to global. The majority of VAs considered current and past vulnerability; few VAs incorporated future scenarios and these studies focused on future climatic conditions while largely overlooking changes in nonclimatic drivers of vulnerability. Approaches to evaluate future dimensions of vulnerability included climate model projections, socioeconomic model projections, temporal analogue approaches, longitudinal approaches, and local perceptions. These methods often failed to capture the dynamic interactions between variables through time, as future impacts are unlikely to follow previous patterns of change. To combine datasets of different scales, VAs created vulnerability indices, overlaid spatial datasets, or used expert judgement. These approaches tended to aggregate local characteristics to the regional level at the expense of community specificity. There is a need for methodological advances to assess future scenarios and to combine datasets in the field of community-level climate change VAs to make these studies more responsive to local realities and relevant to the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Using Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways and hydrological modelling to co-create water resource adaptation policies for climate change: a practical example for southern Portugal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Pedro Nunes ◽  
Luís Filipe Dias ◽  
Bruno A. Aparício ◽  
Inês Morais ◽  
Ana Lúcia Fonseca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Southern Portugal

<p>Mediterranean agricultural systems often rely on irrigation, which can cause conflicts with domestic water demand due to limited water resources. Climate change could enhance these conflicts by bringing a drier climate, lowering water availability, while increasing irrigation demands, therefore creating a need for timely adaptation actions. However, the creation of adaptation plans requires the integration of local policy-makers and stakeholders, both to ensure that the plans are adjusted to local physical and social conditions, and to secure investment in the implementation phase. As many are not technical experts in water resources, this integration requires innovative methodologies to ensure that knowledge gained from advanced hydrological methods can be effectively transmitted for use.</p><p>These issues were addressed in the climate change adaptation plan for water resources in the Algarve region (southern Portugal), which was co-created between hydrologists and local stakeholders and policy-makers under project CLIMAAA, by using the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAAP) approach to synthetize the results from hydrological modelling of future scenarios.</p><p>Future scenarios were simulated from the present until 2100 using a hydrological model, with multiple realizations of climate scenarios RCP4.5and RCP8.5. The results show an increase in water stress conditions, mainly in the RCP8.5 scenario. Future scenarios and potential adaptation measures were discussed with the local policy-makers (regional and municipal water managers) and water users (water utilities, farmer associations). An agreed-upon set of measures was then simulated with the model to assess their effectiveness for adaptation. These results were used to design a DAAP specifically for the water sector in the Algarve.</p><p>Policy-makers were then presented with the DAPP, combined with a cost assessment, and selected the most suitable and politically reliable adaptation pathway until 2100. They did not consider socially desirable to decrease irrigation use, and showed a strong preference for measures such as promoting efficient water use and water retention landscapes, which are distributed and incremental, to measures such as wastewater recycling which require a large investment. However, they did consider desalination as a last resort despite the high investment, to be applied in case other measures fail to maintain water stress below an acceptable threshold. In the end, an adaptation plan for water resources was co-created between policy-makers and researchers which strongly reflected local desires and preferences, while ensuring that its effectiveness was assessed with the best available tools; this plan is now in in the review and implementation stage.</p>

Insurance Fund as an Adaptation Measure for Increasing Water Security in Basins Under Change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Gesualdo ◽  
Felipe Souza ◽  
Eduardo Mendiondo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Insurance Fund ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measure ◽  
The World

<p>Extreme weather events are increasingly evident and widespread around the world due to climate change. These events are driven by rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, which lead to changes in flood frequency, drought and water availability. To reduce the future impacts of natural disasters, it is crucial to understand the spatiotemporal variability of social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities related to natural disasters. Particularly, developing countries are more vulnerable to climate risks due to their greater economic dependence on climate-sensitive primary activities, infrastructure, finance and other factors that undermine successful adaptation. In this concept, adaptation plays the role of anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate measures to prevent or minimize the damage they may cause. Thus, the insurance fund is a valuable adaptation tool for unexpected losses reimbursement, long-term impacts prevention and encouraging risk mitigation. Although this approach is successful throughout the world and major organizations support insurance as an adaptation measure, the Brazilian insurance fund only provides support for rural landowners. Thus, we will evaluate the implementation of an indexed multi-risk insurance fund integrated with water security parameters, as an instrument for adaptation to climate change. We will use the SWAT+, a hydrosedimentological model, to assess the current conditions and future scenarios (up to 2100) of water security indices considering two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Then, we will incorporate those parameters to the Hydrological Risk Transfer Model (MTRH). Our results will provide optimized premium in current and future scenarios for supporting adaptation plans to climate change. Furthermore, to contribute to technical-scientific information addressing possible effects of climate change on the hydrometeorological variables and their spatiotemporal variability.</p>

Range increase of a Neotropical orchid bee under future scenarios of climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 901-910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel P. Silva ◽  
Ana C. B. A. Macêdo ◽  
John S. Ascher ◽  
Paulo De Marco
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Orchid Bee
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