scholarly journals Strategic risk dominance in collective systems design

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul T. Grogan ◽  
Ambrosio Valencia-Romero

Engineered system architectures leveraging collaboration among multiple actors across organizational boundaries are envisioned to be more flexible, robust, or efficient than independent alternatives but also carry significant downside risks from new interdependencies added between constituents. This paper transitions the concept of risk dominance from equilibrium selection in game theory to engineering design as a strategic measure of collective stability for system of systems. A proposed method characterizes system design as a bi-level problem with two or more asymmetric decision-makers. A measure of risk dominance assesses strategic dynamics with respect to the stability of joint or collaborative architectures relative to independent alternatives using a novel linearization technique to approximate linear incentives among actors. An illustrative example case for an asymmetric three-player design scenario shows how strategic risk dominance can identify and mitigate architectures with unstable risk-reward dynamics.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1326
Author(s):  
Hongfang Li ◽  
Huixiao Wang ◽  
Yaxue Yang ◽  
Ruxin Zhao

The interactions of water, energy, and food, which are essential resources for human survival, livelihoods, production, and development, constitute a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. Applying symbiosis theory, the economic, social, and natural factors were considered at the same time in the WEF system, and we conducted a micro-level investigation focusing on the stability, coordination, and sustainability of the symbiotic units (water, energy, and food), and external environment of the WEF system in 36 prefecture-level cities across three northeastern provinces of China. Finally, we analyzed the synergistic safety and coupling coordination degree of the WEF system by the combination of stability, coordination, and sustainability, attending to the coordination relationship and influences of the external environment. The results indicated that the synergistic safety of the WEF system in three northeastern provinces need to equally pay attention to the stability, coordination, and sustainability of the WEF system, since their weights were 0.32, 0.36 and 0.32, respectively. During 2010–2016, the synergistic safety indexes of the WEF system ranged between 0.40 and 0.60, which was a state of boundary safety. In the current study, the coupling coordination degree of the WEF system fluctuated around a value of 0.6, maintaining a primary coordination level; while in the future of 2021–2026, it will decline to 0.57–0.60, dropping to a weak coordinated level. The conclusion could provide effective information for decision-makers to take suitable measures for the security development of a WEF system.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.3) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Mishell D. Lawas ◽  
Sherwin A. Guirnaldo

The stability of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) during actual flight conditions is one parameter that is very important in systems design in Avionics. In this research, two sensors, the autopilot microcontroller and the smartphone gyroscope sensing mechanism, are fused together and calibrated to monitor the flying behavior of the UAV prior to actual test flights. The two fused sensors and installed inside the UAV for relatively increased sensing accuracy and best flight monitoring capabilities. A Kalman filter is used as fusion technique and a Stewart Motion tracker is also used to test the ruggedness and accuracy of the fused sensor system. Experiment results show that fused system can give an overall mean square error or 1.9729.


Author(s):  
John P.T. Mo ◽  
Ronald C. Beckett

Since the announcement of Industry 4.0 in 2012, multiple variants of this industry paradigm have emerged and built on the common platform of Internet of Things. Traditional engineering driven industries such as aerospace and automotive are able to align with Industry 4.0 and operate on requirements of the Internet of Things platform. Process driven industries such as water treatment and food processing are more influenced by societal perspectives and evolve into Water 4.0 or Dairy 4.0. In essence, the main outcomes of these X4.0 (where X can be any one of Quality, Water or a combination of) paradigms are facilitating communications between socio-technical systems and accumulating large amount of data. As the X4.0 paradigms are researched, defined, developed and applied, many real examples in industries have demonstrated the lack of system of systems design consideration, e.g. the issue of training together with the use of digital twin to simulate operation scenarios and faults in maintenance may lag behind events triggered in the hostile real world environment. This paper examines, from a high level system of systems perspective, how transdisciplinary engineering can incorporate data quality on the often neglected system elements of people and process while adapting applications to operate within the X4.0 paradigms.


Author(s):  
Azad M. Madni ◽  
Michael W. Sievers ◽  
James Humann ◽  
Edwin Ordoukhanian ◽  
Barry Boehm ◽  
...  

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Xiaoli Tian ◽  
Meiling Niu ◽  
Jiangshui Ma ◽  
Zeshui Xu

TODIM is a well-known multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) which considers the bounded rationality of decision makers (DMs) based on prospect theory (PT). However, in the classical TODIM, the perceived probability weighting function and the difference of the risk attitudes for gains and losses are not consistent with the original idea of PT. Moreover, probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information shows its superiority in handling the situation that the DMs hesitate among several possible values with different possibilities. Hence, a novel TODIM with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information is proposed in this paper to simulate the perceptions of the DMs in PT. To show the advantages of the proposed method, a novel TODIM is combined with hesitant fuzzy information. Finally, a case study is carried out to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method, and a series of comparative analyses and the sensitivity analyses are used to show the stability of the proposed method.


2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim M. Chamseddine ◽  
Michael Kokkolaras

Previous work in air transportation system-of-systems (ATSoSs) design optimization considered integrated aircraft sizing, fleet allocation, and route network configuration. The associated nested multidisciplinary formulation posed a numerically challenging blackbox optimization problem; therefore, direct search methods with convergence properties were used to solve it. However, the complexity of the blackbox impedes greatly the solution of larger-scale problems, where the number of considered nodes in the route network is high. The research presented here adopts a rule-based route network design inspired by biological transfer principles. This bio-inspired approach decouples the network configuration problem from the optimization loop, leading to significant numerical simplifications. The usefulness of the bio-inspired approach is demonstrated by comparing its results to those obtained using the nested formulation for a 15 city network. We then consider introduction of new aircraft as well as a larger problem with 20 cities.


Author(s):  
Gregory Giuliani ◽  
Nicolas Ray ◽  
Stefan Schwarzer ◽  
Andrea De Bono ◽  
Pascal Peduzzi ◽  
...  

Understanding the complexity of earth-system processes is crucial to convey improved information on the environment to decision-makers and the general public. Addressing this need by sharing environmental data is challenging because it requires a common agreed framework that allows easy and seamless integration of data from different sources. In this regard, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) portends major benefits through various sharing mechanisms and by giving access to services that could be linked together to process and generate new understandable knowledge and information. Various United Nations projects could greatly benefit from the GEOSS approach.


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