Chain ladder and maximum likelihood

1991 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. 489-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Verrall
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Ladder Model ◽  
Second Moments ◽  
Chain Ladder

ABSTRACTThis paper derives second moments of estimates of the parameters in the chain ladder model. Thus, the so-called link ratios, and proportions of ultimate claims for each development year are considered. This enables confidence statements about the chain ladder parameters to be made with statistical rigour. The methods are illustrated using 6 sets of real data taken from the DTI returns.

scholarly journals Dynamic Indoor Localization Using Maximum Likelihood Particle Filtering

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1090
Author(s):  
Wenxu Wang ◽  
Damián Marelli ◽  
Minyue Fu
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Particle Filtering ◽  
Indoor Localization ◽  
Real Data ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Classical Particle ◽  
Popular Approach ◽  
Filtering Method ◽  
Essential Idea ◽  
Number Of Particles

A popular approach for solving the indoor dynamic localization problem based on WiFi measurements consists of using particle filtering. However, a drawback of this approach is that a very large number of particles are needed to achieve accurate results in real environments. The reason for this drawback is that, in this particular application, classical particle filtering wastes many unnecessary particles. To remedy this, we propose a novel particle filtering method which we call maximum likelihood particle filter (MLPF). The essential idea consists of combining the particle prediction and update steps into a single one in which all particles are efficiently used. This drastically reduces the number of particles, leading to numerically feasible algorithms with high accuracy. We provide experimental results, using real data, confirming our claim.

scholarly journals Transforming variables to central normality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob Raymaekers ◽  
Peter J. Rousseeuw
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Transformation Parameter ◽  
Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Extensive Simulation ◽  
Highly Sensitive

AbstractMany real data sets contain numerical features (variables) whose distribution is far from normal (Gaussian). Instead, their distribution is often skewed. In order to handle such data it is customary to preprocess the variables to make them more normal. The Box–Cox and Yeo–Johnson transformations are well-known tools for this. However, the standard maximum likelihood estimator of their transformation parameter is highly sensitive to outliers, and will often try to move outliers inward at the expense of the normality of the central part of the data. We propose a modification of these transformations as well as an estimator of the transformation parameter that is robust to outliers, so the transformed data can be approximately normal in the center and a few outliers may deviate from it. It compares favorably to existing techniques in an extensive simulation study and on real data.

scholarly journals On the Estimation of Reliability of Weighted Weibull Distribution: A Comparative Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Bander Al-Zahrani
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Reliability Function ◽  
Nonparametric Methods ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Density Estimator ◽  
Bayes Estimators ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Data Set

The paper gives a description of estimation for the reliability function of weighted Weibull distribution. The maximum likelihood estimators for the unknown parameters are obtained. Nonparametric methods such as empirical method, kernel density estimator and a modified shrinkage estimator are provided. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to compute the Bayes estimators assuming gamma and Jeffrey priors. The performance of the maximum likelihood, nonparametric methods and Bayesian estimators is assessed through a real data set.

scholarly journals Identification of the age-period-cohort model and the extended chain-ladder model

Biometrika ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 95 (4) ◽  
pp. 979-986 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Kuang ◽  
B. Nielsen ◽  
J. P. Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Model ◽  
Ladder Model ◽  
Extended Chain ◽  
Chain Ladder

scholarly journals Forecasting with the age-period-cohort model and the extended chain-ladder model

Biometrika ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 95 (4) ◽  
pp. 987-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Kuang ◽  
B. Nielsen ◽  
J. P. Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Model ◽  
Ladder Model ◽  
Extended Chain ◽  
Chain Ladder

scholarly journals The Weibull Birnbaum-Saunders Distribution And Its Applications

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-81
Author(s):  
Lazhar BENKHELIFA
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Modeling Data

A new lifetime model, with four positive parameters, called the Weibull Birnbaum-Saunders distribution is proposed. The proposed model extends the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution and provides great flexibility in modeling data in practice. Some mathematical properties of the new distribution are obtained including expansions for the cumulative and density functions, moments, generating function, mean deviations, order statistics and reliability. Estimation of the model parameters is carried out by the maximum likelihood estimation method. A simulation study is presented to show the performance of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. The flexibility of the new model is examined by applying it to two real data sets.

scholarly journals A New Right-Skewed Upside Down Bathtub Shaped Heavy-tailed Distribution and its Applications

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandeep Kumar Maurya ◽  
Sanjay K Singh ◽  
Umesh Singh
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
New Right ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Heavy Tailed Distribution ◽  
Heavy Tailed

A one parameter right skewed, upside down bathtub type, heavy-tailed distribution is derived. Various statistical properties and maximum likelihood approaches for estimation purpose are studied. Five different real data sets with four different models are considered to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model.

scholarly journals New Lindley Half Cauchy Distribution: Theory and Applications

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Cauchy Distribution ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Von Mises

In this paper, we have defined a new two-parameter new Lindley half Cauchy (NLHC) distribution using Lindley-G family of distribution which accommodates increasing, decreasing and a variety of monotone failure rates. The statistical properties of the proposed distribution such as probability density function, cumulative distribution function, quantile, the measure of skewness and kurtosis are presented. We have briefly described the three well-known estimation methods namely maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), least-square (LSE) and Cramer-Von-Mises (CVM) methods. All the computations are performed in R software. By using the maximum likelihood method, we have constructed the asymptotic confidence interval for the model parameters. We verify empirically the potentiality of the new distribution in modeling a real data set.

scholarly journals On Modified Burr XII-Inverse Weibull Distribution: Development, Properties, Characterizations and Applications

2020 ◽  
pp. 721-735
Author(s):  
Fiaz Ahmad Bhatti ◽  
G. G. Hamedani ◽  
Haitham M. Yousof ◽  
Azeem Ali ◽  
Munir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Hazard Rate ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Lifetime Distribution ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Inverse Weibull Distribution

A flexible lifetime distribution with increasing, decreasing, inverted bathtub and modified bathtub hazard rate called Modified Burr XII-Inverse Weibull (MBXII-IW) is introduced and studied. The density function of MBXII-IW is exponential, left-skewed, right-skewed and symmetrical shaped.  Descriptive measures on the basis of quantiles, moments, order statistics and reliability measures are theoretically established. The MBXII-IW distribution is characterized via different techniques. Parameters of MBXII-IW distribution are estimated using maximum likelihood method. The simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). The potentiality of MBXII-IW distribution is demonstrated by its application to real data sets: serum-reversal times and quarterly earnings.

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