The Prester John Test: a Rejoinder

1982 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 520-521
Author(s):  
John M. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Food Production ◽  
Time Horizon ◽  
Time Perspective ◽  
The Face ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Revolution

The purpose of my December 1980 Africana note was to identify two major problems in the rapidly growing literature on the Ethiopian revolution: (1) the failure to honour the academic obligation to be exhaustive in the research enterprise; and (2) the tendency of students of the revolution to draw doubtful long-term conclustions on the basis of a brief time-horizon. To illustrate these points I used Peter Koehn's citations on food production and the conclusions he drew from them. Briefly, I noted that he had overlooked at least one important set of data and reached a conclusion that did not hold up over time. The references to new sources in both my note and the reply by Koehn and Brian D'Silva support my argument, for we have now located important, additional studies on production and rainfall, and Koehn has now altered and expanded his conclusions in the face of evidence from a longer time-perspective.

scholarly journals Identification of skill in an online game: The case of Fantasy Premier League

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0246698
Author(s):  
Joseph D. O’Brien ◽  
James P. Gleeson ◽  
David J. P. O’Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Online Game ◽  
Large Dataset ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Premier League ◽  
Decision Points ◽  
Prime Factors ◽  
The Face ◽  
Over Time

In all competitions where results are based upon an individual’s performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one million contestants playing Fantasy Premier League, an online fantasy sport where managers choose players from the English football (soccer) league. We show that managers’ ranks over multiple seasons are correlated and we analyse the actions taken by managers to increase their likelihood of success. The prime factors in determining a manager’s success are found to be long-term planning and consistently good decision-making in the face of the noisy contests upon which this game is based. Similarities between managers’ decisions over time that result in the emergence of ‘template’ teams, suggesting a form of herding dynamics taking place within the game, are also observed. Taken together, these findings indicate common strategic considerations and consensus among successful managers on crucial decision points over an extended temporal period.

scholarly journals Belief, Faith, and Hope: On the Rationality of Long-Term Commitment

Mind ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Rational Action ◽  
The Face ◽  
Over Time ◽  
As If

Abstract I examine three attitudes: belief, faith, and hope. I argue that all three attitudes play the same role in rationalizing action. First, I explain two models of rational action—the decision-theory model and the belief-desire model. Both models entail there are two components of rational action: an epistemic component and a conative component. Then, using this framework, I show how belief, faith, and hope that p can all make it rational to accept, or act as if, p. I conclude by showing how my picture can explain how action-oriented commitments can be rational over time, both in the face of counterevidence and in the face of waning affections.

Approaches to Skills in the Asian Developmental States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Sung ◽  
Arwen Raddon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Developmental State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Developmental States ◽  
Asian Tiger ◽  
The Face ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
And Training ◽  
Over Time

The developmental state model was proposed in the early 1990s as a better means of understanding the mechanisms underlying the rapid growth of the Asian Tiger economies, when compared to classic economic models. The national skills systems of South Korea and Singapore are examined in order to consider how the Asian developmental state approach has worked in practice. It is shown that, whilst the state identifies and firmly guides the direction of economic development, the market plays a fundamental role in the concrete delivery of long-term economic objectives. Within this approach, education and training act as a vehicle to achieve broader economic and social development goals. Examples are used to consider how these systems changed throughout the industrialisation process. We reflect on some of the challenges faced over time, which have put the long-term viability of the developmental state approach in question. Most notable is the gradual erosion of the state’s ability to lead capital and labour in order to achieve long- rather than short-term goals, particularly in the face of globalisation.

Wage Differences between Polish and Romanian Intra-EU Migrants in a Flexi-Secure Labour Market: An Over-Time Perspective

2021 ◽  
pp. 095001702110562
Author(s):  
Jonas Felbo-Kolding ◽  
Janine Leschke
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Perspective ◽  
Language Education ◽  
Social Structures ◽  
Further Training ◽  
Wage Differences ◽  
Positive Return ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Eu

By merging longitudinal register data and a customised survey, this article explores whether sectoral segmentation, migrants’ pre- and post-migration human capital and social structures, shape wages of Polish and Romanian long-term migrants to Denmark. Pronounced wage differences in favour of Polish migrants are evident in the first two years in Denmark, notwithstanding the same regulatory context under the free movement of labour in the EU. Wage differences persist – albeit at a considerably lower level – throughout the eight-year period, mainly because of significant sectoral segmentation. Sectoral segmentation not explained by demographics, pre-migration human capital or crisis effects, might indicate categorical stereotyping by employers. Regarding (co-ethnic) social networks, at least for the early stages of migration, the study does not find significant effects on wages. While the evidence shows a positive return on wages of formal higher education taken post migration, this is not the case for further training and Danish language education.

scholarly journals Adaptive Bet-Hedging Revisited: Considerations of Risk and Time Horizon

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omri Tal ◽  
Tat Dat Tran
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Pure Strategy ◽  
Bet Hedging ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
The Face ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Payoff Functions ◽  
Finite Time Horizon

Abstract Models of adaptive bet-hedging commonly adopt insights from Kelly’s famous work on optimal gambling strategies and the financial value of information. In particular, such models seek evolutionary solutions that maximize long-term average growth rate of lineages, even in the face of highly stochastic growth trajectories. Here, we argue for extensive departures from the standard approach to better account for evolutionary contingencies. Crucially, we incorporate considerations of volatility minimization, motivated by interim extinction risk in finite populations, within a finite time horizon approach to growth maximization. We find that a game-theoretic competitive optimality approach best captures these additional constraints and derive the equilibria solutions under straightforward fitness payoff functions and extinction risks. We show that for both maximal growth and minimal time relative payoffs, the log-optimal strategy is a unique pure strategy symmetric equilibrium, invariant with evolutionary time horizon and robust to low extinction risks.

scholarly journals Social care for adults with learning disabilities in England: trends over time

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-100
Author(s):  
Chris Hatton
Keyword(s):  
Learning Disabilities ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cent Increase ◽  
Adults With Learning Disabilities ◽  
The Face ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine trends over time in social care usage and expenditure for adults with learning disabilities in England. Design/methodology/approach Returns from councils with social services responsibilities in England concerning social care usage and expenditure were analysed to examine the national picture and trends over time for adults with learning disabilities. Findings In 2017/2018, 147,915 adults with learning disabilities were receiving long-term social care, an increase of 5.7 per cent from 2014/2015. Social care expenditure increased by 10.2 per cent from 2014/2015 to £5.54bn in 2017/2018; adjusted for inflation this was a 2.7 per cent increase. For adults with learning disabilities who receive social care, increasing numbers of people are living with families or in supported accommodation/living, with gradual declines in the number of people living in residential or nursing care. The number of adults with learning disabilities in temporary accommodation is small but increasing. Social implications While councils appear to be attempting to protect social care for adults with learning disabilities in the face of cuts to council expenditure, social care expenditure and coverage are not keeping pace with likely increases in the number of adults with learning disabilities requiring social care. Originality/value This paper presents in one place statistics concerning long-term social care for adults with learning disabilities in England.

Role of CPEB-Family Proteins in Memory

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kausik Si
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Mechanisms ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Cytoplasmic Polyadenylation ◽  
Element Binding Protein ◽  
The Face ◽  
Specific Mrnas ◽  
Over Time

A synapse-based mechanism of formation and persistence of long-term memory (LTM) entails some unique mechanistic challenges. It requires experience-dependent changes in synapse composition, function, and number. These changes must be specific to the synapse of interest, although all synapses in a neuron rely on the same genome. Finally, these changes must persist over time in the face of constant synaptic protein turnover. It has long been known that translation at the synapse is one of the fundamental requirements for LTM, and multiple mechanisms of synaptic translation have been characterized. Among these translation regulatory mechanisms, cytoplasmic polyadenylation element binding protein (CPEB) family members fulfill some of the unique needs of LTM and can even be considered as contributing to the biochemical substrates of memory. These proteins orchestrate a “synaptic mark” and regulate translation of specific mRNAs required for changes in synaptic composition, function, and number. Some CPEB family members also self-assemble and alter their function to maintain the altered synaptic state over time, contributing to persistence of memory. This chapter summarizes the known function of different CPEB family members in memory, their underlying molecular mechanisms, and important issues that remain to be resolved.

scholarly journals A Long and Winding Road: Dementia Caregiving With Grit and Grace

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen A Roberto ◽  
Brandy Renee Mccann ◽  
Rosemary Blieszner ◽  
Jyoti Savla
Keyword(s):  
Life Course Perspective ◽  
Care Recipient ◽  
Best Interest ◽  
Dementia Caregivers ◽  
The Face ◽  
Relational Outcomes ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Design And Methods ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background and Objectives Many dementia caregivers provide care for numerous years. Exhibiting grit, or commitment and persistence in the face of adversity, may bolster their ability to manage caregiving challenges. We explored grit in relationship to memory and behavior problems and response to stressors among women engaged in long-term dementia care. Research Design and Methods Informed by a life course perspective, and guided by stress-process theory, we interviewed 10 women with a spouse or parent initially diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment 4 times over 10 years. Using Charmaz’s analysis methods and grit as a sensitizing concept, we employed an unfolding analytic strategy involving (a) thematic analysis to identify expressions of grit in response to caregiving stressors across interviews and (b) case-by-case comparisons to assess associations of grit with the use of care strategies across caregivers over time. Results Dementia caregivers experienced unrelenting and changing psychosocial and physical challenges. Over time, most women exhibited a sustained commitment to the relationship through the ways in which they protected the identity of the person with dementia, modified their expectations for emotional intimacy, and managed their financial affairs. They persevered as their roles and relationships fluctuated, often finding purpose and relief through employment and leisure pursuits. As care intensified, women who took charge and consciously made decisions in the best interest of the care recipient and themselves minimized stress. Discussion and Implications While some caregivers exhibited grit from the outset, all showed enhanced perseverance and commitment to the ways they managed memory-related changes over time. Developing confidence in their ability to manage and provide care helped the caregivers respond to stressors with purpose and sustain their roles and responsibilities. Enhancing grit in long-term dementia caregivers may result in better individual and relational outcomes.

scholarly journals Adaptive Bet-Hedging Revisited: Considerations of Risk and Time Horizon

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omri Tal ◽  
Tat Dat Tran
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Bet Hedging ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
The Face ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Payoff Functions ◽  
Finite Time Horizon ◽  
Additional Constraints

AbstractModels of adaptive bet-hedging commonly adopt insights from Kelly’s famous work on optimal gambling strategies and the financial value of information. In particular, such models seek evolutionary solutions that maximize long term average growth rate of lineages, even in the face of highly stochastic growth trajectories. Here, we argue for extensive departures from the standard approach to better account for evolutionary contingencies. Crucially, we incorporate considerations of volatility minimization, motivated by interim extinction risk in finite populations, within a finite time horizon approach to growth maximization. We find that a game-theoretic competitive-optimality approach best captures these additional constraints and derive the equilibria solutions under various fitness payoff functions.

scholarly journals The negative consequences of failing to communicate uncertainties during a pandemic: The case of COVID-19 vaccines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleonore Batteux ◽  
Avri Bilovich ◽  
Samuel G. B. Johnson ◽  
David Tuckett
Keyword(s):  
Medical Literature ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Online Study ◽  
Conflicting Information ◽  
Health Choices ◽  
The Face ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

AbstractUncertainties pervade our health choices, particularly in the context of a novel pandemic. Despite this, rather little is known about when and how to effectively communicate these uncertainties. The focus in the medical literature so far has been on how patients respond to mentions of uncertainty relating to diagnosis or treatment, showing that these can have detrimental effects on trust and satisfaction. On the other hand, how patients are affected by these communications over time, particularly in the face of conflicting information, has received little attention. This is particularly important in the context a novel pandemic where uncertainty is rife and information changes over time. To fill this gap, we conducted an online study with UK participants on hypothetical communications relating to COVID-19 vaccines. Participants first read a vaccine announcement, which either communicated with certainty or uncertainty, and then received information which conflicted with the announcement. Those who were exposed to the certain announcement reported a greater loss of trust and vaccination intention than those who were exposed to the uncertain announcement. This shows that communicating with unwarranted certainty can backfire in the long-term, whereas communicating uncertainties can protect people from the negative impact of exposure to conflicting information.

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