The role of climate in determining the temporal variation in abundance, recruitment and growth of sole Solea solea in the Bristol Channel

2005 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.A. Henderson ◽  
R.M. Seaby
Keyword(s):  
Average Length ◽  
Seawater Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Solea Solea ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Faster Development

Using a 24-year time series of monthly samples, the factors correlated with long-term variation in the abundance and growth of sole, Solea solea, in Bridgwater Bay in the Bristol Channel, England are identified. This bay offers shallow estuarine habitat used by sole as a nursery area. Sole first enter the bay in July when 2–3 months old and after a residence of 4–5 months, the majority migrate offshore at the beginning of winter to return the following April. By three years of age most have left the bay never to return although occasional large fish up to 480 mm in length are caught. Sole were found to be highly seasonal in their growth and only increased in length during the months of May to August inclusive. In recent years, there has been an approximately exponential increase in sole abundance that is highly positively correlated with seawater temperature during the early part of the season. The average length of fish in September, at the end of their first growing season, showed significant between year variation, ranging from 65·3 mm in 1989 to 79·8 mm in 2003. This variation was positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index for the winter prior to their birth. Between year recruitment variation is correlated with both water temperature and the rate of growth. High temperatures allow faster development and a positive NAO index increases productivity and offers more food. Both of these positive influences act to reduce mortality resulting in stronger year-classes. No relationships between sole and other fish and macro-crustaceans living in the nursery were identified.

scholarly journals A Regime View of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Response to Anthropogenic Forcing

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1291-1307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Abdel Hannachi ◽  
Brian Hoskins ◽  
Andrew Turner
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Real Change ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

scholarly journals Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy)

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1389-1399 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. De Vita ◽  
V. Allocca ◽  
F. Manna ◽  
S. Fabbrocino
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Karst Spring ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation. In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period. Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results of this study allow for the establishment of a link between a large-scale atmospheric cycle and the groundwater recharge of carbonate karst aquifers. Consequently, the winter NAO index could also be considered as a proxy to forecast the decadal variability of groundwater flow in Mediterranean karst areas.

scholarly journals Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and spring discharges in the Campania region (Southern Italy)

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 11233-11275
Author(s):  
P. De Vita ◽  
V. Allocca ◽  
F. Manna ◽  
S. Fabbrocino
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Groundwater Circulation ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Climate change is one of the issues most debated by the scientific community with a special focus to the combined effects of anthropogenic modifications of the atmosphere and the natural climatic cycles. Various scenarios have been formulated in order to forecast the global atmospheric circulation and consequently the variability of the global distribution of air temperature and rainfall. The effects of climate change have been analysed with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods, remaining mainly limited to the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle. Consequently the impact of the climate change on the recharge of regional aquifers and on the groundwater circulation is still a challenging topic especially in those areas whose aqueduct systems depend basically on springs or wells, such as the Campania region (Southern Italy). In order to analyse the long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater circulation, we analysed decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (Southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, in the period from 1921 to 2010, choosing 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations among those with the most continuous functioning as well as arranged in a homogeneous spatial distribution. Moreover, for the same period, we gathered the time series of the winter NAO index (December to March mean) and of the discharges of the Sanità spring, belonging to an extended carbonate aquifer (Cervialto Mount) located in the central-eastern area of the Campania region, as well as of two other shorter time series of spring discharges. The hydrogeological features of this aquifer, its relevance due to the feeding of an important regional aqueduct system, as well as the unique availability of a long-lasting time series of spring discharges, allowed us to consider it as an ideal test site, representative of the other carbonate aquifers in the Campania region. The time series of regional normalised indexes of mean annual precipitation, mean annual air temperature and mean annual effective precipitation, as well as the time series of the normalised annual discharge index were calculated. Different methods were applied to analyse the time series: long-term trend analysis, through smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes has highlighted long-term complex periodicities, strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Moreover, we also found robust correlations among precipitation indexes and the annual discharge index, as well as between the latter and the NAO index itself. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation had already been proved on long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results obtained appear original because they establish a link between a large-scale atmospheric cycle and the groundwater circulation of regional aquifers. Therefore, we demonstrated that the winter NAO index can be considered as an effective proxy to forecast the decadal variability of groundwater circulation in Mediterranean areas and in estimating critical scenarios for the feeding of aqueduct systems.

scholarly journals The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in Shaping Regional-Scale Peak Seasonal Precipitation across the Indian Subcontinent

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouraseni Sen Roy
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The present study focuses on the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in shaping the regional-level precipitation during the peak months of the two main rainy seasons over the Indian subcontinent. Monthly precipitation data from 1871 to 2005 were collected for 30 homogenous regions across the subcontinent. Regression analysis was used to analyze the strength of the relationship between NAO on regional-level precipitation patterns. The results of the study showed distinct spatial variations in the response of regional-level rainfall to the monthly NAO index. There were greater variations in the strength of the regression coefficients for peak monsoon rainfall (PMR) compared to the peak winter rainfall (PWR) season. During the latter half of the year, the association between PMR and the NAO index was predominantly negative. In general, the role of NAO was more pronounced across most of the regions in the peninsular India.

scholarly journals Influence of NAO on forming the UTCI index in Kłodzko

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1555-1567
Author(s):  
Arkadiusz Głogowski ◽  
Krystyna Bryś ◽  
Tadeusz Bryś
Keyword(s):  
Climate Index ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
The North ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Bioclimatic Conditions ◽  
The One ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Elements

Abstract The aim of this paper is to understand the role of the macrocirculation factor in shaping the dynamics of long-term bioclimatic conditions, with reference to Kłodzko in the Polish part of the Central Sudetes. The variability of bioclimatic conditions in Kłodzko for the period 1966–2017 was analysed, exposing its local specificity. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was taken as an indicator of the analysed bioclimatic features. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the variability of this index and its constituent meteorological elements, e.g. air temperature, vapour pressure, wind speed, and solar conditions, was examined. On the basis of the winter NAO Hurrell coefficient, the analysed years were divided into two opposing groups representing either a negative or positive Hurrell index. A comparison between these two year-groups for the mean values of UTCI and the examined meteorological elements showed a clear intergroup difference in these values. Except for cloudiness, the importance of the macrocirculation genesis of NAO was verified by the statistically significant correlation between the Hurrell index on the one hand and the tested UTCI index and its constituent meteorological elements on the other.

On the Role of Atmospheric Teleconnections in Climate

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 2990-3001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasios A. Tsonis ◽  
Kyle L. Swanson ◽  
Geli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Recent Application ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnections ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract In a recent application of networks to 500-hPa data, it was found that supernodes in the network correspond to major teleconnection. More specifically, in the Northern Hemisphere a set of supernodes coincides with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and another set is located in the area where the Pacific–North American (PNA) and the tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) patterns are found. It was subsequently suggested that the presence of atmospheric teleconnections make climate more stable and more efficient in transferring information. Here this hypothesis is tested by examining the topology of the complete network as well as of the networks without teleconnections. It is found that indeed without teleconnections the network becomes less stable and less efficient in transferring information. It was also found that the pattern chiefly responsible for this mechanism in the extratropics is the NAO. The other patterns are simply a linear response of the activity in the tropics and their role in this mechanism is inconsequential.

scholarly journals Past African dust inputs in the western Mediterranean area controlled by the complex interaction between the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and total solar irradiance

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 283-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Sabatier ◽  
Marie Nicolle ◽  
Christine Piot ◽  
Christophe Colin ◽  
Maxime Debret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
Climatic Forcing ◽  
African Dust ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Wavelet Analyses

Abstract. North Africa is the largest source of mineral dust on Earth, which has multiple impacts on the climate system; however, our understanding of decadal to centennial changes in African dust emissions over the last few millenniums is limited. Here, we present a high-resolution multiproxy analysis of sediment core from high-elevation Lake Bastani, on the island of Corsica, to reconstruct past African dust inputs to the western Mediterranean area over the last 3150 cal BP. Clay mineralogy with palygorskite and a clay ratio associated with geochemical data allow us to determine that terrigenous fluxes are almost exclusively related to atmospheric dust deposition from the western Sahara and Sahel areas over this period. High-resolution geochemical contents provide a reliable proxy for Saharan dust inputs with long-term (millennial) to short-term (centennial) variations. Millennial variations have been correlated with the long-term southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), with an increase in dust input since 1070 cal BP. This correlation suggests a strong link with the ITCZ and could reflect the increased availability of dust sources to be mobilized with an increase in wind and a decrease in precipitation over western and North Africa. For centennial to decadal variations, wavelet analyses show that since 1070 cal BP, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been the main climatic forcing, with an increase in Saharan dust input during the positive phase, as suggested by previous studies over the last decades. However, when the ITCZ is in a northern position, before 1070 cal BP, wavelet analyses indicate that total solar irradiance (TSI) is the main forcing factor, with an increase in African dust input during low TSI. With climate reanalysis over the instrumental era, during low TSI we observe a significant negative anomaly in pressure over Africa, which is known to increase the dust transport. These two climatic forcing factors (NAO, TSI) modulate Saharan dust inputs to the Mediterranean area at a centennial timescale through changes in wind and transport pathways.

scholarly journals Heavy Rainfall and Landslide Event in January 1831 at the Pedregoso Mountains (Cabeza Del Buey, SW Spain)

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Pedro García-Garrido ◽  
María Cruz Gallego ◽  
Teodoro Palacios ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
José Manuel Vaquero
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Triggering Mechanism ◽  
Sw Spain ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
High Precipitation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

In this work, a landslide event that took place on January 1831 at the Pedregoso Mountains, Cabeza del Buey, SW Spain, is described. This landslide had not been documented to date and was only described in the local press. This event involved an estimated amount of dislodged material in the order of 104 m3. The amount of meteorological data is very scarce as the event occurred before the setting up of the national meteorological service in Spain. However, data from the relatively near location of SW Iberia suggest that the landslide was preceded by a prolonged period of unusually high precipitation totals and that this intense wet period is compatible with the large-scale atmospheric configuration in the winter of 1829–1830. In fact, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for that winter achieved one of the most negative values observed in the bicentennial period spanning 1821 to 2019. This multidisciplinary work represents the first attempt to report and describe the main triggering mechanism for an historical landslide in the Extremadura region that is similar to other great historical landslides which have already been documented for other locations in Spain.

scholarly journals Rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lisbon region over 2006 and relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 483-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Zêzere ◽  
R. M. Trigo ◽  
M. Fragoso ◽  
S. C. Oliveira ◽  
R. A. C. Garcia
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Antecedent Rainfall ◽  
Landslide Activity ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Landslides occurred in the Lisbon area during the last 50 years were almost always induced by rainfall and have been used to establish rainfall thresholds for regional landslide activity. In 2006, three new rainfall-triggered landslide events occurred in the study area, namely on the 20 March, the 25–27 October, and the 28 November. Landslide events occurred in March and October 2006 include shallow translational slides and few debris flows, and the corresponding absolute antecedent rainfall was found to be above the threshold for durations ranging from 4 to 10 days. These events also fit the combined threshold of daily precipitation and 5 days calibrated antecedent rainfall values. Likewise the landslide event that took place in late November 2006 includes some slope movements with deeper slip surfaces, when compared with landslides dating from March and October. Moreover, the corresponding absolute antecedent rainfall was also found to be above the 40-day period rainfall threshold. Here we characterize in detail the short and long-term atmospheric circulation conditions that were responsible for the intense rainfall episodes that have triggered the corresponding landslide events. It is shown that the three rainfall episodes correspond to considerably different synoptic atmospheric patterns, with the March episode being associated to an intense cut-off low system while the October and November episodes appear to be related to more typical Atlantic low pressure systems (and associated fronts) travelling eastwards. Finally, we analyse the role played by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during those months marked by landslide activity. It is shown that the NAO index was consistently negative (usually associated with above average precipitation) for the months prior to the landslide events, i.e. between October 2005 and March 2006, and again between August and October 2006.

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