scholarly journals Simulating the effects of mean annual air-temperature changes on permafrost distribution and glacier size: an example from the Upper Engadin, Swiss Alps

1995 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 399-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hoelzle ◽  
Wilfried Haeberli
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

Models are developed to simulate changes in permafrost distribution and glacier size in mountain areas. The models exclusively consider equilibrium conditions. As a first application, the simplified assumption is used that one single parameter (mean annual air temperature) is changing. Permafrost distribution patterns are estimated for a test area (Corvatsch-Furtschellas) and for the whole Upper Engadin region (eastern Swiss Alps) using a relation between permafrost occurrence as indicated by BTS (bottom temperature of the winter snow cover) measurements, potential direct solar radiation and mean annual air temperature. Glacier sizes were assessed in the same region with data from the World Glacier Inventory database. The simulations for the glaciers are based on the assumption that an increase or decrease in equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) would lead to a mass-balance change. Model calculations for potential future changes in ELA and mass balance include estimated developments of area, length and volume. Mass changes were also calculated for the time period 1850–1973 on the basis of measured cumulative length change, glacier length and estimated ablation at the glacier terminus. For the time period since 1850, permafrost became inactive or disappeared in about 15% of the area originally underlain by permafrost in the whole Upper Engadin region, and mean annual glacier mass balance was calculated as −0.26 to −0.46 m w.e.a−1 for the larger glaciers in the same area. The estimated loss in glacier volume since 1850 lies between 55% and 66% of the original value. With an assumed increase in mean annual air temperature of +3°C, the area of supposed permafrost occurrence would possibly be reduced by about 65% with respect to present-day conditions and only three glaciers would continue to partially exist.

scholarly journals Simulating the effects of mean annual air-temperature changes on permafrost distribution and glacier size: an example from the Upper Engadin, Swiss Alps

1995 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 399-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hoelzle ◽  
Wilfried Haeberli
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

Models are developed to simulate changes in permafrost distribution and glacier size in mountain areas. The models exclusively consider equilibrium conditions. As a first application, the simplified assumption is used that one single parameter (mean annual air temperature) is changing.Permafrost distribution patterns are estimated for a test area (Corvatsch-Furtschellas) and for the whole Upper Engadin region (eastern Swiss Alps) using a relation between permafrost occurrence as indicated by BTS (bottom temperature of the winter snow cover) measurements, potential direct solar radiation and mean annual air temperature. Glacier sizes were assessed in the same region with data from the World Glacier Inventory database. The simulations for the glaciers are based on the assumption that an increase or decrease in equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) would lead to a mass-balance change. Model calculations for potential future changes in ELA and mass balance include estimated developments of area, length and volume. Mass changes were also calculated for the time period 1850–1973 on the basis of measured cumulative length change, glacier length and estimated ablation at the glacier terminus.For the time period since 1850, permafrost became inactive or disappeared in about 15% of the area originally underlain by permafrost in the whole Upper Engadin region, and mean annual glacier mass balance was calculated as −0.26 to −0.46 m w.e.a−1 for the larger glaciers in the same area. The estimated loss in glacier volume since 1850 lies between 55% and 66% of the original value. With an assumed increase in mean annual air temperature of +3°C, the area of supposed permafrost occurrence would possibly be reduced by about 65% with respect to present-day conditions and only three glaciers would continue to partially exist.

scholarly journals Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1211-1232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Falk ◽  
Damián A. López ◽  
Adrián Silva-Busso
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
High Variability ◽  
South Shetland Islands ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Potter Cove ◽  
Shetland Islands ◽  
Ice Cap

Abstract. The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0K(100m)-1) and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The Fourcade Glacier catchment drains into Potter cove, has an area of 23.6 km2 and is glacierized to 93.8 %. Annual discharge from Fourcade Glacier into Potter Cove is estimated to q¯=25±6hm3yr-1 with the standard deviation of 8 % annotating the high interannual variability. The average ELA calculated from our own glaciological observations on Fourcade Glacier over the time period 2010 to 2015 amounts to 260±20 m. Published studies suggest rather stable conditions of slightly negative glacier mass balance until the mid-1980s with an ELA of approx. 150 m. The calculated accumulation area ratio suggests dramatic changes in the future extent of the inland ice cap for the South Shetland Islands.

scholarly journals The Influence of Air Temperature Inversions on Snowmelt and Glacier Mass Balance Simulations, Ammassalik Island, Southeast Greenland

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian H. Mernild ◽  
Glen E. Liston
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Inversion Layer ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Simulation Domain ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Temperature Inversions

Abstract In many applications, a realistic description of air temperature inversions is essential for accurate snow and glacier ice melt, and glacier mass-balance simulations. A physically based snow evolution modeling system (SnowModel) was used to simulate 8 yr (1998/99–2005/06) of snow accumulation and snow and glacier ice ablation from numerous small coastal marginal glaciers on the SW part of Ammassalik Island in SE Greenland. These glaciers are regularly influenced by inversions and sea breezes associated with the adjacent relatively low temperature and frequently ice-choked fjords and ocean. To account for the influence of these inversions on the spatiotemporal variation of air temperature and snow and glacier melt rates, temperature inversion routines were added to MircoMet, the meteorological distribution submodel used in SnowModel. The inversions were observed and modeled to occur during 84% of the simulation period. Modeled inversions were defined not to occur during days with strong winds and high precipitation rates because of the potential of inversion breakup. Field observations showed inversions to extend from sea level to approximately 300 m MSL, and this inversion level was prescribed in the model simulations. Simulations with and without the inversion routines were compared. The inversion model produced air temperature distributions with warmer lower-elevation areas and cooler higher-elevation areas than without inversion routines because of the use of cold sea-breeze-based temperature data from underneath the inversion. This yielded an up to 2 weeks earlier snowmelt in the lower areas and up to 1–3 weeks later snowmelt in the higher-elevation areas of the simulation domain. Averaged mean annual modeled surface mass balance for all glaciers (mainly located above the inversion layer) was −720 ± 620 mm w.eq. yr−1 (w.eq. is water equivalent) for inversion simulations, and −880 ± 620 mm w.eq. yr−1 without the inversion routines, a difference of 160 mm w.eq. yr−1. The annual glacier loss for the two simulations was 50.7 × 106 and 64.4 × 106 m3 yr−1 for all glaciers—a difference of ∼21%. The average equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for all glaciers in the simulation domain was located at 875 and 900 m MSL for simulations with or without inversion routines, respectively.

scholarly journals The influence of superimposed-ice formation on the sensitivity of glacier mass balance to climate change

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 186-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Woodward ◽  
Martin Sharp ◽  
Anthony Arendt
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Ice Formation ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Specific Mass ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

The formation of superimposed ice at the surface of high-Arctic glaciers is an important control on glacier mass balance, but one which is usually modelled in only a schematic fashion. A method is developed to predict the relationship between the thickness of superimposed ice formed and the mean annual air temperature (which approximates the ice temperature at 14 m depth). This relationship is used to investigate the dependence of the proportion of snowpack water equivalent which forms superimposed ice on changes in mean annual temperature and patterns of snow accumulation. Increased temperatures are likely to reduce the extent of the zone of superimposed-ice accumulation and the thickness of superimposed ice formed. This will have a negative effect on glacier mass balance. This is true even if warming occurs only in the winter months, since near-surface ice temperatures will respond to such warming. For John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (79°40’ N, 74°00’ W), a 1°C rise in mean annual air temperature due solely to winter warming is predicted to reduce the specific mass balance of the glacier by 0.008 m a–1 as a result of decreased superimposed-ice formation. Although such a response is small in comparison to the changes which might result from summer warming, it is nonetheless significant given the very low specific mass balance of many high-Arctic glaciers.

scholarly journals The influence of superimposed-ice formation on the sensitivity of glacier mass balance to climate change

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 186-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Woodward ◽  
Martin Sharp ◽  
Anthony Arendt
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Ice Formation ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Specific Mass ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

The formation of superimposed ice at the surface of high-Arctic glaciers is an important control on glacier mass balance, but one which is usually modelled in only a schematic fashion. A method is developed to predict the relationship between the thickness of superimposed ice formed and the mean annual air temperature (which approximates the ice temperature at 14 m depth). This relationship is used to investigate the dependence of the proportion of snowpack water equivalent which forms superimposed ice on changes in mean annual temperature and patterns of snow accumulation.Increased temperatures are likely to reduce the extent of the zone of superimposed-ice accumulation and the thickness of superimposed ice formed. This will have a negative effect on glacier mass balance. This is true even if warming occurs only in the winter months, since near-surface ice temperatures will respond to such warming. For John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (79°40’ N, 74°00’ W), a 1°C rise in mean annual air temperature due solely to winter warming is predicted to reduce the specific mass balance of the glacier by 0.008 m a–1 as a result of decreased superimposed-ice formation. Although such a response is small in comparison to the changes which might result from summer warming, it is nonetheless significant given the very low specific mass balance of many high-Arctic glaciers.

scholarly journals Modelled mass balance of Xibu glacier, Tibetan Plateau: sensitivity to climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (196) ◽  
pp. 235-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caidong Caidong ◽  
Asgeir Sorteberg
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Glacier Terminus

AbstractDue to a lack of in situ measurements, model-based studies of glacier mass balance in the Tibetan Plateau are very limited. An energy-balance model is applied to analyse the mass-balance sensitivity of Xibu glacier, in the Nyainqêntanglha mountain range, to climatic change. A sensitivity calculation shows that a temperature change of ±1°C or a precipitation change of ±35% changes the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) by 140 ± 125 m. We use a clustering method to link local weather parameters, including wet-season temperatures, to weather types observed over the period 1955–2006. Modelled variability of the Xibu glacier mass balance seems to be controlled by air-temperature variations during the wet season (May–September) and by a long-term warming trend that is unrelated to weather type. The observed wet-season temperature trend of 0.23°C (10 a)−1 leads to an estimated lengthening of the ablation season by 8 days at the glacier terminus (5000 m a.s.l.) and by 23 days at the ELA (5590 m a.s.l.) over the period 1966–2005. The calculated rise in the ELA was 49 m (10 a)−1.

scholarly journals Predictions of changes of glacier mass balance in the Nepal Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau: a case study of air temperature increase for three glaciers

1992 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 89-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yutaka Ageta ◽  
Tsutomu Kadota
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Equilibrium State ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
Ice Cap

Annual mass exchange differs between maritime and continental glaciers. A common characteristic of these glaciers in Asian high-mountain areas is that most of the annual accumulation occurs in summer. Since variations in mass balance of a summer-accumulation type of glacier are quite sensitive to variations in summer air temperature, shrinkages of such glaciers due to climate warming are predicted by the use of simplified experimental relations between air temperature and mass balance, disregarding variation of other climatic variables such as cloudiness and precipitation. The results predict that both small and large maritime glaciers are more sensitive to warming than a continental ice cap. A small glacier would disappear in a few decades if the air temperature persisted a few degrees above that of an equilibrium state of mass balance.

scholarly journals Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Falk ◽  
Damián A. López ◽  
Adrián Silva-Busso
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
South Shetland Islands ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Potter Cove ◽  
Shetland Islands ◽  
Ice Cap

Abstract. The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to −1 K/100 m), and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the winter time over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain, and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as five years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in melt water input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude. The Fourcade Glacier catchment drains into Potter cove, has an area of 23.6 km2 and is to 93.8 % glacierized. Annual discharge from Fourcade Glacier into Potter Cove is estimated to q = 25 ± 6 hm3 per year with the standard deviation of 8% annotating the high interannual variability. The average equilibrium line altitude (ELA) calculated from own glaciological observations on Fourcade Glacier over the time period 2010 to 2015 amounts to ELA = 260 ± 20 m. Published studies suggest rather stable conditions of slightly negative glacier mass balance until the mid 80's with an ELA of approx. 150 m. The calculated accumulation area ratio suggests dramatic changes in the future extent of the inland ice cap for the South Shetland Islands.

scholarly journals Mass-balance parameters derived from a synthetic network of mass-balance glaciers

2012 ◽  
Vol 58 (211) ◽  
pp. 965-979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Horst Machguth ◽  
Wilfried Haeberli ◽  
Frank Paul
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Regional Climate Model Output

AbstractGlacier mass-balance parameters such as the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) play an important role when working with large glacier samples. While the number of observational mass-balance series to derive such parameters is limited, more and more modeled data are becoming available.Here we explore the possibilities of analyzing such 'synthetic' mass-balance data with respect to mass-balance parameters. A simplified energy-balance model is driven by bias-corrected regional climate model output to model mass-balance distributions for 94 glaciers in the Swiss Alps over 15 years. The modeling results in realistic interannual variability and mean cumulative mass balance. Subsequently model output is analyzed with respect to 18 topographic and mass-balance parameters and a correlation analysis is performed. Well-known correlations such as for ELA and median elevation are confirmed from the synthetic data. Furthermore, previously unreported parameter relationships are found such as a correlation of the balance rate at the tongue with the accumulation-area ratio (AAR) and of the glacier elevation range with the AAR. Analyzing modeled data complements in situ observations and highlights their importance: the small number of accurate mass-balance observations available for validation is a major challenge for the presented approach.

scholarly journals Predictions of changes of glacier mass balance in the Nepal Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau: a case study of air temperature increase for three glaciers

1992 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 89-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yutaka Ageta ◽  
Tsutomu Kadota
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Equilibrium State ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
Ice Cap

Annual mass exchange differs between maritime and continental glaciers. A common characteristic of these glaciers in Asian high-mountain areas is that most of the annual accumulation occurs in summer. Since variations in mass balance of a summer-accumulation type of glacier are quite sensitive to variations in summer air temperature, shrinkages of such glaciers due to climate warming are predicted by the use of simplified experimental relations between air temperature and mass balance, disregarding variation of other climatic variables such as cloudiness and precipitation. The results predict that both small and large maritime glaciers are more sensitive to warming than a continental ice cap. A small glacier would disappear in a few decades if the air temperature persisted a few degrees above that of an equilibrium state of mass balance.

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