scholarly journals Prediction of Stock Returns: A New Way to Look at It

2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Stefan Sperlich
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Financial Models ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Finite Samples ◽  
One Year

While the traditionalR2value is useful to evaluate the quality of a fit, it does not work when it comes to evaluating the predictive power of estimated financial models in finite samples. In this paper we introduce a validatedvalue useful for prediction. Based on data from the Danish stock market, using this measure we find that the dividend-price ratio has predictive power. The best horizon for prediction seems to be four years. On a one year horizon, we find that while inflation and interest rate do not add to the predictive power of the dividend-price ratio then last years excess stock return does.

scholarly journals Prediction of Stock Returns: A New Way to Look at It

2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (02) ◽  
pp. 399-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Stefan Sperlich
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Financial Models ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Finite Samples ◽  
One Year

While the traditional R 2 value is useful to evaluate the quality of a fit, it does not work when it comes to evaluating the predictive power of estimated financial models in finite samples. In this paper we introduce a validated value useful for prediction. Based on data from the Danish stock market, using this measure we find that the dividend-price ratio has predictive power. The best horizon for prediction seems to be four years. On a one year horizon, we find that while inflation and interest rate do not add to the predictive power of the dividend-price ratio then last years excess stock return does.

scholarly journals Predictive Power of Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rate on Stock Return and Volatility: A Comparison

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai Ching Poon ◽  
Gee Kok Tong
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Economic Volatility

Using monthly data from seven mature and emerging markets and a battery of GARCH and EGARCH models, the study of Davis and Kutan (2003) on inflation and output on stock returns and volatility is extended by including interest rate to compare the effect between three mature markets (US, Japan, and Singapore) and four emerging markets who experienced a crisis before (Malaysia, India, Korea, and Philippines). It is found that economic volatility, as measured by movement in inflation, output growth, and interest rate, have a weak predictor power for stock market volatility and returns. In line with the evidence reported in Davis and Kutan (2003), the findings suggest that there is no support for the Fisher effect in stock returns among the seven mature and emerging markets.   Keywords: Predictive power; output; inflation; interest rate; stock return volatility.  

scholarly journals PENGARUH LOAN TO DEPOSITE RATIO, RETURN ON ASSETS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO, EXCHANGE RATE DAN INTEREST RATE TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 340
Author(s):  
Ketut Asmara Jaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Lm Test

Pertumbuhan pasar modal pada akhir tahun 2010 menunjukkan kinerja yang luar biasa dengan meningkatnya kembali nilai saham dengan dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor, baik faktor internal ataupun faktor eksternal dari setiap perusahaan. Studi ini menganalisis untuk pinjaman deposit rasio (LDR), pengembalian asset (ROA), rasio kecukupan modal (CAR), nilai tukar dan suku bunga yang berdampak pada keuntungan saham di perusahaan perbankan. Studi panel ini menggunakan data LM test statistik yang menunjukkan perhitungan metode random effect adalah cara yang lebih tepat digunakan untuk mengestimasi model dalam penelitian ini. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa variabel ROA memberikan pengaruh positif dan signifikan dalam return saham. Sedangkan variabel LDR, CAR dan Kurs tidak ada pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap return saham, dan hanya kecenderungan jika LDR, CAR dan Kurs meningkat maka return saham dapat meningkat pula Suku bunga variabel tidak memberikan pengaruh positif dan pengaruh signifikan karena tidak memiliki hubungan dengan return saham.Growth of Capital market in late 2010 showed outstanding performance with rising of stock return which is influenced by various factors, both internal factors and external factors of each company it self. This study analyzes the Loan To Deposite Ratio (LDR), Return On Assets (ROA), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Exchange Rate and Interest Rate impact on stock returns in corporate banking. This study uses panel data with LM Test statistical calculation it is shown that Random Effect method is more precise to be used in this study. The result of the study shown that ROA variable gives positive and significant influence in stock return. While LDR, variables CAR and exchange rate of no influence and significantly to return stock, and only tendency if LDR, CAR and exchange rate increase then return shares can be increased as well. The Interest Rate variable did not give positive and significant influence because of not having relationship with stock return.

scholarly journals The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in Five South Asian Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firmansyah Firmansyah ◽  
Shanty Oktavilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The composite price index and return of stocks are the important indicators, both as a measure of the company's portfolio performance, as well as an indicator of macroeconomic health and the aggregate investment. In addition, the stock prices are also influenced by macroeconomic variables and one of the most important is the exchange rates. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of exchange rate affects the stock returns in Southeast Asia, pre and post of the 2008 world financial crisis. By employing the daily stock market return in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore more than seventeen years from 1 September 1999 to 31 March 2017, this study utilizes Engle-Granger error correction model and cointegration approach to investigate and compare the long and short run of the structural effect of the exchange rates on stock returns. To differentiate the behavior of variables between pre and post occurrence of 2008 world financial crisis, the estimation of the model is divided into two periods. This study finds that the exchange rate growth influence the stock returns in the long and short run, and proves that the cointegration between the two variables exist in all countries. The study has the implication that the exchange rate, which the one of the fundamental measures of a country's macroeconomic health, is an important determinant of influencing stock return, even its effects are responded by the stock return in one day.

scholarly journals Conditional Variance Forecasts for Long-Term Stock Returns

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enno Mammen ◽  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Michael Scholz ◽  
Stefan Sperlich
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Smoothing Parameters ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step procedure a fully nonparametric local-linear smoother and choose the set of covariates as well as the smoothing parameters via cross-validation. We find that volatility forecastability is much less important at longer horizons regardless of the chosen model and that the homoscedastic historical average of the squared return prediction errors gives an adequate approximation of the unobserved realised conditional variance for both the one-year and five-year horizon.

Forecasting the Time Volatility of Emerging Asian Stock Market Index

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Selvam ◽  
M. Raja ◽  
P. Yazh Mozhi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Asian Market ◽  
Current Price ◽  
One Year ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Derivatives Markets

Volatility is the measure of how far the current price of an asset deviates from its average past prices. Greater the deviation, greater the volatility. It indicates the strength or conviction behind a price movement. Stock market volatility is the function of the arrival of positive and negative market information. Pricing of securities is supposed to be dependent on the volatility of each asset. Matured / developed markets continue to provide over long period of time high returns with low volatility. Emerging markets, except India and China exhibit low returns. The exponential growth in the Asian derivatives markets necessitated the need to test whether the Asian market indices are more volatile or not. The study finds an evidence of time varying volatility, which exhibits clustering, high persistence and predictability for almost all the Asian market indices in the sample. With this background the present paper investigates the dynamic behavior of stock returns of ten market indices from Asian countries, using symmetric GARCH (1,1) model for a period of one year from January 2006 to December 2006.

scholarly journals THE VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION OF MAIN GLOBAL STOCK'S RETURN TO INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-256
Author(s):  
Linda Karlina Sari ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani ◽  
Bagus Sartono
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Symmetric Model ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Stock return volatility is a very interesting phenomenon because of its impact on global financial markets. For instance, an adverse shocks in one country’s market can be transmitted to other countries’ market through a particular mechanism of transmission, causing the related markets to experience financial instability as well (Liu et al., 1998). This paper aims to determine the best model to describe the volatility of stock returns, to identify asymmetric effect of such volatility, as well as to explore the transmission of stocks return volatilities in seven countries to Indonesia’s stock market over the period 1990-2016, on a daily basis. Modeling of stock return volatility uses symmetric and asymmetric GARCH, while analysis of stock return volatility transmission utilizes Vector Autoregressive system. This study found that the asymmetric model of GARCH, resulted from fitting the right model for all seven stock markets, provides a better estimation in portraying stock return volatility than symmetric model. Moreover, the model can reveal the presence of asymmetric effects on those seven stock markets. Other finding shows that Hong Kong and Singapore markets play dominant roles in influencing volatility return of Indonesia’s stock market. In addition, the degree of interdependence between Indonesia’s and foreign stock market increased substantially after the 2007 global financial crisis, as indicated by a drastic increase of the impact of stock return volatilities in the US and UK market on the volatility of Indonesia’s stock return.

scholarly journals Foreign Ownership and Stock Return Volatility in Vietnam: the Destabilizing Role of Firm Size

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-377
Author(s):  
Anh Tho To ◽  
Yoshihisa Suzuki ◽  
Bao Ngoc Vuong ◽  
Quoc Tuan Tran ◽  
Khoa Do
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Foreign Ownership ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
One Year

This study aims to examine the relevance of foreign ownership to stock return volatility in the Vietnam stock market over ten years (2008 - 2017). After applying the fixed effects regressions and the extended instrumental variable regressions with fixed effects, we find that foreign ownership decreases the volatility of stock returns. However, the stabilizing impact of foreign ownership on stock return volatility becomes weaker in large firms since the coeffcient of the interaction term between firm size and foreign ownership turns out to be significantly positive. The estimated results remain robust when we use the future one-year volatility, other than the current one, as an alternative measure of the dependent variable.

scholarly journals VOLATILITY IN STOCK RETURN SERIES OF VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
Vinh Xuan Vo ◽  
Ngan Thi Kim Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Financial Policies ◽  
Long Span ◽  
Return Variance ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
Icss Algorithm

This paper studies the features of the stock return volatility using GARCH models and the presence of structural breaks in return variance of VNIndex in the Vietnam stock market by using the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using a long-span data, GARCH and GARCH in mean (GARCH-M) models seems to be effective in describing daily stock returns’ features. About structural breaks, when applying ICSS to standardized residuals filtered from GARCH (1, 1) model, the number of volatility shifts significantly decreases in comparison with the raw return series. Events corresponding to those breaks and altering the volatility pattern of stock return are found to be country-specific. Not any shifts are found during global crisis period. Further evidence also reveals that when sudden shifts are taken into account in the GARCH models, volatility persistence remarkably reduces and that the conditional variance of stock return is much affected by past trend of observed shocks and variance. Our results have important implications regarding advising investors on decisions concerning pricing equity, portfolio investment and management, hedging and forecasting. Moreover, it is also helpful for policy-makers in making and promulgating the financial policies.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Return On Assets, Return On Equity, Debt To Equity Ratio, Inflasi, Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Return Saham Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Studi Empiris Pada Perusahaan Secondary Sectors Periode 2010-2015)

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 063-076
Author(s):  
Ningsih Hikmawati ◽  
Adi Wiratno ◽  
Suyanto . ◽  
Darmansyah .
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Equity Ratio

This study is aimed to ascertain and analyse the influence of return on assets, return on equity, debt to equit ratio, inflation, and interest rate, both partiall and simultaneously on the stock returns in manufacturing companies of secondary sectors listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. This research uses quantitative methods and EVIEWS panel 8 to analyse the regression. The population are manufacturing companies of secondary sector listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange consisted of basic and chemical sectors, miscellaneous industry, and consumer goods sector in the period of 2010-2015. The sampling method used is pusposive sampling with the final number of 40 companies. The research required secondary data. The results show that return on assets has no negative effect on stock return, mean while, return on equity and interest rate have positive effect on stock return. Return on assets, return on equity, debt to equity ratio, inflation and interest rate all simultaneously have effect on stock returns.

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