scholarly journals Change We Can Believe In? Using Political Science to Predict Policy Change in the Obama Presidency

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (02) ◽  
pp. 329-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Woon
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Ideal Point ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
Point Estimates

Based on the results of the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, an analysis using theories and methods of modern political science (pivotal politics theory, ideal point estimates, and bootstrap simulations) suggests that the conditions are ripe for real policy change. Specifically, we should expect policies to move significantly in a liberal direction, few or no policies should move in a conservative direction, and many of the outcomes will be moderate or somewhat to the left of center (rather than far left). Furthermore, the predictions depend as much on partisan polarization and the results of the congressional election as they do on the outcome of presidential election itself.

Strategy and Choice in the 1982 Congressional Elections

1982 ◽  
Vol 15 (03) ◽  
pp. 423-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary C. Jacobson ◽  
Samuel Kernell
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Folk Wisdom ◽  
Deep Recession

Common to both political folk wisdom and political science is the idea that the mid-term congressional election is a referendum on the performance of the current administration. The more popular a president and the more successful his policies, the better his party does at the midterm. The president's party almost invariably loses some congressional seats in off-year elections (since the Civil War the president's party has added House seats only once—in 1934—though it occasionally picks up Senate seats). But the extent of its losses varies widely (from one to 56 House seats in postwar midterms), depending, so the theory goes, on how the electorate rates the administration's performance.The 1982 congressional elections will, in this view, be a referendum on President Reagan's administration and in particular on his economic policies, which have been the focus of political attention since inauguration day. If this is true, then economic conditions prevalent through the spring of 1982 (a potentially devastating combination of deep recession, high unemployment, and high interest rates) and Reagan's shaky support in the polls (less than 50 percent approving his performance in all Gallup surveys during the first four months of 1982), portend a Republican disaster of major proportions in the fall.Remarkably, almost no one is seriously predicting anything of the kind. And it may indeed be a mistake to bet on enormous Republican losses—partly, we will argue, because they arenotwidely anticipated.

Measuring Bias and Uncertainty in DW-NOMINATE Ideal Point Estimates via the Parametric Bootstrap

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Royce Carroll ◽  
Jeffrey B. Lewis ◽  
James Lo ◽  
Keith T. Poole ◽  
Howard Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Ideal Point ◽  
Parametric Bootstrap ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Ideal Points ◽  
Measuring Bias ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

DW-NOMINATE scores for the U.S. Congress are widely used measures of legislators' ideological locations over time. These scores have been used in a large number of studies in political science and closely related fields. In this paper, we extend the work of Lewis and Poole (2004) on the parametric bootstrap to DW-NOMINATE and obtain standard errors for the legislator ideal points. These standard errors are in the range of 1%–4% of the range of DW-NOMINATE coordinates.

The Decline of Electoral Participation in America

1982 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 502-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Abramson ◽  
John H. Aldrich
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Political Efficacy ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
Government Responsiveness ◽  
Combined Impact

Since 1960 turnout has declined in presidential elections, and since 1966 it has declined in off-year congressional elections. These declines occurred despite several major trends that could have increased electoral participation. An analysis of the eight SRC-CPS presidential election surveys conducted between 1952 and 1980 and of the six SRC-CPS congressional election surveys conducted between 1958 and 1978 suggests that these declines may result largely from the combined impact of two attitudinal trends: the weakening of party identification and declining beliefs about government responsiveness, that is, lowered feelings of “external” political efficacy. Between two-thirds and seven-tenths of the decline in presidential turnout between 1960 and 1980 appears to result from the combined impact of these trends. Data limitations hinder our efforts to study the decline of congressional turnout, but approximately two-fifths to one-half of the decline between 1966 and 1978 appears to result from the combined impact of these attitudinal trends.

Valuing Policy Alternatives: A Generalization

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Dietz ◽  
Lawrence S. Rothenberg
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ideal Point ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Policy Alternatives ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Utility Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Consistent Parameter

Those interested in political phenomena such as voting have found random utility models, originally developed for decisions such as transportation choice, especially attractive, as the underlying model can yield a statistical model with a few simple, realistic assumptions. Unfortunately, such models have proven difficult to apply to situations with more than two votes and three alternatives or an unknown cutpoint. Additionally, as we show, standard applications of such models to voting, while producing consistent parameter estimates, yield standard errors that are too small and, due to a failure to employ all relevant theoretical information, biased ideal point estimates. We specify a general model applicable to any number of votes and alternatives, with correct standard errors and unbiased ideal point estimates. We apply this model to a number of cases studied by previous scholars involving legislative voting over the minimum wage: (1) when there are two votes and two known cutpoints (K. Krehbiel and D. Rivers, American Journal of Political Science, 1988, 32, 1151–1174); (2) when there are three votes and three known cutpoints (J. Wilkerson, American Journal of Political Science, 1991, 35, 613–623); and (3) when there are three votes but where one cutpoint is unknown given a lack of knowledge about the impact of a policy (J. Wilkerson, American Journal of Political Science, 1991, 35, 613–623) or the possibility of sophisticated voting (C. Volden, Journal of Politics, 1998, 60, 149–173). We show that in various contexts our analysis improves on existing methods, yielding consistent and efficient ideal point estimates and a better-fitting model with improved predictive accuracy.

You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-650
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson ◽  
Spencer Hardin ◽  
Aaron A. Hitefield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract The 2020 elections brought to an end one of the most divisive and historic campaigns in the modern era. Former Vice President Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States with the largest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the process. The record turnout was especially remarkable in light of the ongoing pandemic surrounding COVID-19 and the roughly 236,000 Americans who had died of the virus prior to the election. This article examines the electoral context of the 2020 elections focusing on elections in both the House and Senate. More specifically, this article examines the candidates, electoral conditions, trends, and outcomes in the primaries as well as the general election. In doing so, we provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the climate and outcome of the 2020 congressional elections. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of the broader implications of the election outcomes on both the incoming 117th Congress as well as the upcoming 2022 midterm election.

National Presidential Election Turnout: 1952 to 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110318
Author(s):  
Francine Sanders Romero ◽  
David W. Romero
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Multivariate Modeling ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Modern Era ◽  
Campaign Advertising

In an era when elections scholars expected American national presidential election turnout to increase, its steep, prolonged post-1960 decline sparked deep concern and generated an avalanche of individual-level analyses searching for explanation. The post-1960 decline, however, no longer dominates turnout’s trajectory; it has been on the upswing since 1996. This complicates our understanding as we have yet to settle on turnout’s description, much less its explanation. Here we introduce the first political science-oriented, multivariate modeling of American national presidential election turnout. Our results offer a mix of important confirmatory and original findings. First, we discover that modeling turnout’s decline as a post-1968 secular disturbance reveals turnout’s expected steady increase across the modern era (1952–2020). Second, we show that turnout’s increase can be traced to increased polarization working its influence indirectly through the direct, positive turnout affects of voter external efficacy and negative presidential campaign advertising (1960–2012).

Gary C. Jacobson and the Politics of Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
The Past

AbstractGary Jacobson is one of the world’s leading experts studying US congressional elections. This essay examines his contributions to political science over the past 40 years.

Where Does the President Stand? Measuring Presidential Ideology

2010 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn Treier
Keyword(s):  
Ideal Point ◽  
Revealed Preferences ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Point Estimates

Although estimating the revealed preferences of members of Congress is straightforward, estimating the position of the president relative to Congress is not. Current estimates place the president as considerably more ideologically extreme than one would expect. These estimates, however, are very sensitive to the set of presidential positions used in the roll call analyses for the 103rd through 109th Congresses. The president often obtains more moderate ideal point estimates relative to Congress when including positions based on signing bills into law.

Integrating Voting Theory and Roll Call Analysis: A Framework

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 381-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua D. Clinton ◽  
Adam Meirowitz
Keyword(s):  
Ideal Point ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Formal Modeling ◽  
Legislative Politics ◽  
Federal Aid ◽  
Voting Theory ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Legislative Studies ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Hypothesis Testing Procedure

Scholars of legislative studies typically use ideal point estimates from scaling procedures to test theories of legislative politics. We contend that theory and methods may be better integrated by directly incorporating maintained and to be tested hypotheses in the statistical model used to estimate legislator preferences. In this view of theory and estimation, formal modeling (1) provides auxiliary assumptions that serve as constraints in the estimation process, and (2) generates testable predictions. The estimation and hypothesis testing procedure uses roll call data to evaluate the validity of theoretically derived to be tested hypotheses in a world where maintained hypotheses are presumed true. We articulate the approach using the language of statistical inference (both frequentist and Bayesian). The approach is demonstrated in analyses of the well-studied Powell amendment to the federal aid-to-education bill in the 84th House and the Compromise of 1790 in the 1st House.

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