The Decline of Electoral Participation in America

1982 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 502-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Abramson ◽  
John H. Aldrich
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Political Efficacy ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
Government Responsiveness ◽  
Combined Impact

Since 1960 turnout has declined in presidential elections, and since 1966 it has declined in off-year congressional elections. These declines occurred despite several major trends that could have increased electoral participation. An analysis of the eight SRC-CPS presidential election surveys conducted between 1952 and 1980 and of the six SRC-CPS congressional election surveys conducted between 1958 and 1978 suggests that these declines may result largely from the combined impact of two attitudinal trends: the weakening of party identification and declining beliefs about government responsiveness, that is, lowered feelings of “external” political efficacy. Between two-thirds and seven-tenths of the decline in presidential turnout between 1960 and 1980 appears to result from the combined impact of these trends. Data limitations hinder our efforts to study the decline of congressional turnout, but approximately two-fifths to one-half of the decline between 1966 and 1978 appears to result from the combined impact of these attitudinal trends.

scholarly journals Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy

1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alesina ◽  
Howard Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Voting Models ◽  
Better Than

In the postwar United States the president's party has always done worse in the midterm congressional elections than in the previous congressional election. Republican administrations exhibit below-average, and Democratic administrations above-average, economic growth in the first half of each term, whereas in the latter halves the two see equal growth. Our rational expectations model is consistent with these two regularities. In presidential elections, voters choose between two polarized candidates. They then use midterm elections to counterbalance the president's policies by strengthening the opposition in Congress. Since presidents of different parties are associated with different policies, our model predicts a (spurious) correlation between the state of the economy and elections. Our predictions contrast with those of retrospective voting models, in which voters reward the incumbent if the economy is doing well before the election. Our model performs empirically at least as well as, and often better than, alternative models.

scholarly journals Change We Can Believe In? Using Political Science to Predict Policy Change in the Obama Presidency

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (02) ◽  
pp. 329-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Woon
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Ideal Point ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
Point Estimates

Based on the results of the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, an analysis using theories and methods of modern political science (pivotal politics theory, ideal point estimates, and bootstrap simulations) suggests that the conditions are ripe for real policy change. Specifically, we should expect policies to move significantly in a liberal direction, few or no policies should move in a conservative direction, and many of the outcomes will be moderate or somewhat to the left of center (rather than far left). Furthermore, the predictions depend as much on partisan polarization and the results of the congressional election as they do on the outcome of presidential election itself.

An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-545
Author(s):  
Anne M. Cizmar ◽  
John McTague
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Abstract This paper examines the role of authoritarianism in the 2018 US congressional elections. In particular, we assess whether the issues that have historically been central to the authoritarian divide in the American electorate were salient in the campaigns of several important Senate races. We demonstrate that authoritarian attitudes played a consistent, significant role on presidential vote choice, party identification, and numerous policy areas in the 2016 presidential election using data from the American National Election Studies. Using case studies of six Senate races in the 2018 midterm elections, we find that authoritarianism was more muted than in 2016, and that the role of authoritarianism varied considerably depending upon the race. States with stronger Trump support in 2016 featured authoritarianism more heavily than states with less Trump support in 2016, but authoritarianism overall was not as prominent in 2018 as in 2016. Overall, Senate candidates relied on traditional campaign messages related to candidate qualifications, personal attacks, the economy, and other messages less central to authoritarianism.

Timing and Sequence in Congressional Elections: Interstate Contagion and America's Nineteenth-Century Scheduling Regime

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott C. James
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political History ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Simple Rule ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Early State ◽  
Historical Pattern ◽  
Over Time

“The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November”—by this simple rule, Americans organize 435 congressional election contests into one simultaneous collective event. Many—including not a few political scientists—treat this scheduling requirement as though it were an enduring feature of American political history, perhaps even one of the Framers' constitutional stipulations. In fact, the historical pattern is richer and more variegated. For much of the country's first hundred years, diversity, not uniformity, was a defining feature of the congressional election schedule. The non-synchronous character of this first American scheduling regime manifested itself in two especially critical ways. First, non-synchronicity within states separated congressional and presidential elections in time, creating a host of problems for political parties, from the challenges of multiple mobilization efforts, to the difficulties of ensuring a unified party vote across federal elections that could be separated by several months. Second, non-synchronicity across states in congressional elections meant that legislative races unfolded sequentially over time, exposing these predominantly local contests to distinctive interstate contagions—not unlike contemporary presidential primaries—with unexpected partisan showings in early state races helping to shape outcomes in subsequent state contests.

Presidential Succession Effects in Voting

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 495-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franco Mattei ◽  
Herbert F. Weisberg
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Reagan Administration ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Vice President ◽  
General Election ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Indirect Impact ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
President Bush

Attitudes towards a departing administration can help shape attitudes towards candidates, especially when the incumbent vice-president is one of the candidates. This succession effect was apparent in the 1988 presidential election, when Vice-President Bush benefited from the enduring popularity of retiring President Reagan. This article develops a model in which succession effects, the net candidate score and party identification affect the general election vote. Analysis shows that this effect remains when controls are instituted for retrospective voting more generally. Attitudes towards Reagan also had an indirect impact by affecting the net Bush-Dukakis candidate score; altogether the estimated impact of the Reagan effect in 1988 was to turn the vice-president's predicted loss into his observed victory. Additionally, a succession effect was detected in the 1988 nominating campaign, with Bush's popularity over Dole benefiting from reactions to the Reagan administration. There is evidence of succession effects in other presidential elections, particularly a Johnson effect in 1968.

Electoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections

1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
KENNETH SCHEVE ◽  
MICHAEL TOMZ
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Systematic Relationship ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
American Political Economy

Alberto Alesina and Howard Rosenthal argue that surprise about the outcomes of US presidential elections accounts for two important features of the American political economy: the regular loss of votes experienced by the president's party in midterm congressional elections, and the systematic relationship between the party of the incoming president and macroeconomic performance. Scholars recently have begun conducting rigorous tests of the relationship between surprise and economic performance, but no similar empirical work exists on how surprise affects midterm elections. In this article, we offer the first direct test of the proposition that electoral surprise drives the midterm loss. Our analysis shows that the more surprised moderate voters are about the outcome of a presidential election, the lower the probability that they will support the president's party in the following midterm contest.

Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 635-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas A. Hibbs
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Objectively Measured ◽  
Foreign Wars

According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars. No other outside variable systematically affects postwar aggregate votes for president.

You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-650
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson ◽  
Spencer Hardin ◽  
Aaron A. Hitefield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract The 2020 elections brought to an end one of the most divisive and historic campaigns in the modern era. Former Vice President Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States with the largest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the process. The record turnout was especially remarkable in light of the ongoing pandemic surrounding COVID-19 and the roughly 236,000 Americans who had died of the virus prior to the election. This article examines the electoral context of the 2020 elections focusing on elections in both the House and Senate. More specifically, this article examines the candidates, electoral conditions, trends, and outcomes in the primaries as well as the general election. In doing so, we provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the climate and outcome of the 2020 congressional elections. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of the broader implications of the election outcomes on both the incoming 117th Congress as well as the upcoming 2022 midterm election.

The Primacy Principle: Attitude Change and Political Socialization

1976 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Searing ◽  
Gerald Wright ◽  
George Rabinowitz
Keyword(s):  
Attitude Change ◽  
Political Socialization ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Political Efficacy ◽  
The Third ◽  
Political Orientations

The ‘primacy principle’ comprises three assumptions about political orientations. The first is that they are learned during childhood. The second is that this childhood learning further shapes any subsequent modifications of them. The third is that the scale of any such subsequent modifications is small: fundamental political orientations tend to endure through life. We propose, using cohort analysis, to examine the extent to which three political orientations – party identification, political efficacy and political trust – do, as a matter of fact, endure through adulthood.

Attitudes toward Mormons and Voter Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Hawley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Voter Behavior ◽  
Latter Day Saints ◽  
Active Member ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Church

AbstractPrior to the 2012 presidential election, some commentators speculated that Mitt Romney's status as a devout and active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints would undermine his presidential aspirations. Using the 2012 American National Election Survey, this study examines the relationship between attitudes toward Mormons and voter behavior in the United States in that election year. It finds that attitudes toward Mormons had a statistically-significant effect on turnout — though these effects differed according to party identification. It additionally finds that these attitudes influenced vote choice. In both cases, the substantive effects were small, indicating that anti-Mormon feelings did play a role in the 2012 presidential election, but they did not determine the final outcome.

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