scholarly journals Exchange Rates Impacts on Agricultural Inputs Prices using VAR

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 511-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osei Yeboah ◽  
Saleem Shaik ◽  
Albert Allen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Difference Model ◽  
Fixed Price ◽  
Rate Versus ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Mexican Peso ◽  
The U.S

The effects of the U.S. dollar exchange rate versus the Mexican peso are evaluated for four traded nonfarm-produced inputs (fertilizer, chemicals, farm machinery, and feed) in the U.S. Unit root tests suggest that the exchange rate and the four input price ratios support the presence of unit roots with a trend model but the presence unit roots can be rejected in the first difference model. This result is consistent with a fixed price/flex price conceptual framework, with industrial prices more likely to be unresponsive to the exchange rate than farm commodity prices.

scholarly journals Extreme volatility dependence in exchange rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (82) ◽  
pp. 25-56
Author(s):  
Magnolia Miriam Sosa Castro ◽  
Christian Bucio Pacheco ◽  
Héctor Eduardo Díaz Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Asymmetric Volatility ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Japanese Yen ◽  
Mexican Peso ◽  
The U.S

This paper aims to analyse asymmetric volatility dependence in the exchange rate between the British Pound, Japanese Yen, Euro, and Mexican Peso compared to the U.S. dollar during different periods of turmoil and calm sub-periods between (1994-2018). GARCH and TARCH models are employed to model conditional

Monetary Policy and Oil Prices

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850232
Author(s):  
Mehdi S. Monadjemi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Because of volatility, commodity prices are excluded from the CPI when inflation targeting is exercised. Rising commodity prices contribute to inflation but central banks show no reaction since the CPI does not register rise in prices. Frankel (2006) argues that monetary policy should consider the price of important export commodities such as oil, in oil exporting countries. He maintains that by doing so, central banks are able to benefit from the fluctuations of the exchange rate in the presence of a negative international trade shocks. Central banks cannot benefit from the fluctuation of the exchange rate if inflation targeting is the strategy for conducting monetary policy.

scholarly journals FORMATION OF COMPOSITE GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES AS AN INFLATION INDICATOR FOR EAST JAVA

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-217
Author(s):  
Anisha Wirasti Cahyaningrum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
General Will ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

With the average contribution of imports to Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in the last five years reaching 19.1%, the dynamics of global commodity prices also influence the economic performance of East Java, including the movement of inflation. A composite indicator of global commodity prices is needed to find out the impact of changes in various global commodity prices on inflation in East Java. By adopting the Bank Indonesia methodology in forming a composite global price known as the Imported Inflation Price Index (IHIM) which has considered the method of forming a global composite price created by the IMF (IMF Commodity Price Index), the compilation of East Java global price composites also examines the accuracy of commodity selection and aspects of data availability. The selected global price composite for East Java is a composite of seven global commodities which include food (wheat, soybeans, corn and CPO) and non-food (iron, gold and oil). These are two aspects determining the relative weight, namely (I) the import portion of the total input based on the Input-Output table and (ii) the commodity weight of derivatives in the East Java Consumer Price Index (IHK) basket. Furthermore, with OLS regression, the composite of East Java global commodity prices affects the core-traded inflation movement in East Java. Thus, the composite of global commodity prices in East Java can be used as an indicator of East Java inflation projections, especially core-traded inflation. This study, in general, will also examine the effect of the exchange rate impact on the movement of core inflation, especially traded groups in East Java. Based on the regression results it is known that the impact of the exchange rate movement on core traded inflation in East Java is more significant than the effect of world commodity price movements.

scholarly journals Can RMB Exchange Rate Expectations Explain the Fluctuations of China’s Housing Prices?

2020 ◽  
pp. 211-233
Author(s):  
Chunni Wang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Rmb Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Exchange Rate Expectations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Rate Expectation

Unlike existing literature that has focused on the relationship between exchange rate and housing price, this paper studies the housing price fluctuations from the perspective of RMB exchange rate expectation to resolve the dilemma “guarantee housing price or exchange rate” after the sub-prime mortgage crisis. This paper shows that housing prices responded negatively to RMB appreciation expectation from 1999 to 2008, and positively from 2009 to 2019. After 2009, exchange rate expectation is the Granger causality of housing prices. After introducing the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) released by Baker et al.(2016), the explanatory power of exchange rate expectations to housing price fluctuations declines but it's still significant. When EPU increased, housing prices responded negatively after a brief positive response. Besides exchange rate expectation, several unobservable factors with rich economic implications can explain the fluctuations of housing prices in China in the interval of 2006M01–2018M12. The empirical results show that the degree of Chinese government reversal intervention, interest rate spread between China and the U.S., and EPU can explain the exchange rate expectation. The government can control the degree of reversal intervention to affect the exchange rate expectation and realize the housing price control indirectly.

scholarly journals Effects of the exchange rate on international prices of pulp and paper in Brazilian currency

CERNE ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-144
Author(s):  
Naisy Silva Soares ◽  
Eliane Pinheiro de Sousa ◽  
Márcio Lopes da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Pulp And Paper ◽  
International Prices ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

This study aimed to analyze effects of the exchange rate adopted in Brazil as well as pulp and paper prices in the U.S. on pulp and paper prices in Brazilian currency, from April 2003 to February 2009. To attain that, the shift-share method was used, and analysis results indicated that price variations in Brazilian currency were more strongly influenced by exchange rate variations than by variations in dollar prices, demonstrating the importance of the exchange rate policy adopted by Brazil in the behavior of pulp and paper prices.

scholarly journals The monetary transmission mechanism in Brazil: evidence from a var analysis

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viviane Luporini
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This article presents evidence on the interest channel of the monetary policy for the Brazilian economy of the 1990s analyzing the effects of an unexpected change in the baseline interest rate on output, prices and the exchange rate in a vector autoregression system. Our main results are: a) a tightening in the monetary policy affects economic activity immediately, reducing the rate of growth of real GDP; b) the exchange rate and prices are affected only after a time interval, with inflation assuming a downward trend only two months after the monetary shock; c) results do not change when the specification is controlled for international conditions, commodity prices or other measures of inflation and economic activity; d) monetary shocks have a significant impact on the volatility of output and inflation in the benchmark model e) monetary shocks have a significant impact on the volatility of the debt/GDP ratio in the control-model.

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of the Elliott Waves Theory to Forecast Financial Markets: Evidence from the Currency Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Eugenio D’Angelo ◽  
Giulio Grimaldi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Great Accuracy ◽  
Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Currency Market ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the capability of a technical analysis to be used as a valuable tool in forecasting financial markets. After discussing the primary theoretical and methodological differences that oppose the fundamental analysis and technical analysis and introducing the Elliott waves theory, the paper focuses on the results obtained after applying this method to the currency market. The results show that during the period from 2009-2015, the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and euro could be forecasted with great accuracy. A potential future pattern is also proposed for the exchange rate beginning in March 2017. The research confirmed the usefulness of Elliott’s model for predicting currency markets, and the effectiveness of the fundamental analysis theories generally adopted for academic studies was evaluated.

U.S.-China Exchange Rate Negotiation: Stakeholders' Participation and Strategy Deployment

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Yixuan Cao ◽  
Yong Cao ◽  
Rashmi Prasad ◽  
Zhengping Shen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negotiation Strategy ◽  
Negotiation Strategies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

Exchange rates influence a country's trading capability, foreign reserves and competitiveness. Recently, the exchange rate between the Chinese RMB and the U.S. dollar has been a contentious issue in both the United States and China. In this paper, we conduct a historical review of how the United States deployed negotiation strategies with China on the exchange rate issue and consider the degree to which it follows theoretical expectations. We then analyze the changing nature of the factors which shape exchange rate negotiations between the two nations in projecting alternative scenarios for the future of conflict resolution between the U.S. and China on this issue. We predict that the U.S. is likely to continue alternating between competition and collaboration, a negotiation cycle influenced by U.S. domestic politics, and China is less likely to continue with accommodation and compromise. The sequencing and timing of each nation's negotiation strategy will lead to widely divergent consequences for the management of exchange rates and the world economy.

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