U.S.-China Exchange Rate Negotiation: Stakeholders' Participation and Strategy Deployment

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Yixuan Cao ◽  
Yong Cao ◽  
Rashmi Prasad ◽  
Zhengping Shen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negotiation Strategy ◽  
Negotiation Strategies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

Exchange rates influence a country's trading capability, foreign reserves and competitiveness. Recently, the exchange rate between the Chinese RMB and the U.S. dollar has been a contentious issue in both the United States and China. In this paper, we conduct a historical review of how the United States deployed negotiation strategies with China on the exchange rate issue and consider the degree to which it follows theoretical expectations. We then analyze the changing nature of the factors which shape exchange rate negotiations between the two nations in projecting alternative scenarios for the future of conflict resolution between the U.S. and China on this issue. We predict that the U.S. is likely to continue alternating between competition and collaboration, a negotiation cycle influenced by U.S. domestic politics, and China is less likely to continue with accommodation and compromise. The sequencing and timing of each nation's negotiation strategy will lead to widely divergent consequences for the management of exchange rates and the world economy.

scholarly journals Dynamic Interrelationships between the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance and the Macroeconomy

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek ◽  
Won W. Koo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

The effects of the exchange rate and the income and money supply of the United States and its major trading partners on the U.S. agricultural trade balance are examined using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Results suggest that the exchange rate is the key determinant of the short- and long-run behavior of the trade balance. It is also found that the income and money supply in both the United States and the trading partners have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural trade in both the short and long run.

scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China, Eurozone and the U.S.: A Vector Error Correction Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Sheng Xu ◽  
Hailun Zhang ◽  
Said Atri
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The U.S

This study examines the pass-through effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate on inflation in China in comparison with similar effects in the Eurozone and the United States. Using a set of monthly data covering the period 1999 through 2015 for each case, we constructed a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model as well as an Error Correction model (VECM) to estimate the pass-through effects in the three cases. In addition, to ensure that our results are statistically unbiased we also tested the stationarity of the variables of the model. Moreover, to distinguish between the short-run and long-run pass-through effects, we made use of a series of co-integration tests. Our results indicate that the pass-through effect of changes in the exchange rate in China is much weaker than it is in the Eurozone and the United States. We found this effect in the U.S. to be both more notable and longer-lasting.

Counterterrorism Between the Wars

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary S. Barton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
League Of Nations ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Common Interests ◽  
Independence Movements ◽  
Second World ◽  
The U.S

This is a book about terrorism, weapons, and diplomacy in the interwar years between the First and Second World Wars. It charts the convergence of the manufacture and trade of arms; diplomacy among the Great Powers and the domestic politics within them; the rise of national liberation and independence movements; and the burgeoning concept and early institutions of international counterterrorism. Key themes include: a transformation in meaning and practice of terrorism; the inability of Great Powers—namely, Great Britain, the United States, France—to harmonize perceptions of interest and the pursuit of common interests; the establishment of the tools and infrastructure of modern intelligence—including the U.S.-U.K. cooperation that would evolve into the Five Eyes intelligence alliance; and the nature of peacetime in the absence of major wars. Particular emphasis is given to British attempts to quell revolutionary nationalist movements in India and elsewhere in its empire, and to the Great Powers’ combined efforts to counter the activities of the Communist International. The facilitating roles of the Paris Peace Conference and League of Nations are explored here, in the context of the Arms Traffic Convention of 1919, the Arms Traffic Conference of 1925, and the 1937 Terrorism Convention.

Cuba: From “Dollarization” to “Euroization” or “Peso Reconsolidation”?

2002 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-123
Author(s):  
Archibald R. M. Ritter ◽  
Nicholas Rowe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
The United States ◽  
Significant Component ◽  
Cuban Government ◽  
The U.S

AbstractSince its “depenalization” in 1993, the U.S. dollar has become possibly a more significant component of Cuba's money supply than the old peso. What are the alternatives? The euro seems inappropriate, given the inevitability of eventual normalization of relations with the United States. More advantageous would be to restore the Cuban peso, though this would involve unifying the bifurcated economic structure and the dual monetary and exchange rate systems. The Cuban government has yet to announce its plans. This study argues that an appropriate mix of exchange rate, monetary, fiscal, and income or wage and salary policies should support a rehabilitation of the Cuban peso.

scholarly journals The Impact of Subsidies, Storage, and Exchange Rates on Exports of Canadian Fresh Carrots to the United States

1987 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-129
Author(s):  
Ralph E. Bierlen ◽  
David Blandford
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Cold Storage ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Canadian Government ◽  
Government Aid ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Canadian exports of fresh carrots to the United States have increased substantially in recent years. The depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar has been a major factor. Canadian government subsidies also may have had an impact by accelerating the construction of cold storage facilities. These have permitted the marketing period to be extended. However, an analysis of costs and returns suggests that cold storage of carrots is commercially profitable. Storage capacity would probably have increased without government aid. The returns to storage and the change in exchange rates are the primary factors contributing to the expansion of Canadian exports.

Domestic Exchange Rates and Regional Economic Growth in the United States, 1899–1908: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

1998 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 1010-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronnie J. Phillips ◽  
Harvey Cutler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations

This article examines one feature of the pre—Federal Reserve financial system that has not been widely researched: the market for bank drafts (the “domestic exchanges”). Though the exchanges existed for nearly a century, critics argued that exchange rate fluctuations exacerbated financial panics. We find, using cointegration analysis over the period from 1899 to 1908, that differences in growth rates across regions caused predictable movements in rates. We conclude that the exchanges promoted efficiency in the payments system. This supports the view that the private sector might have developed a unified national system had the Fed not abolished the exchanges.

scholarly journals The “day-of-the-week” effects in the exchange rate of Latin American currencies

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (PNEA) ◽  
pp. 485-507
Author(s):  
Roberto Joaquín Santillán Salgado ◽  
Alejandro Fonseca Ramírez ◽  
Luis Nelson Romero
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper examines the “day-of-the-week” anomaly in the foreign exchange market of six major Latin American countries’ currencies: (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru), all with respect to the United States’ dollar. The returns of daily exchange rates are stationary, so we use linear regressions combined with GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH models to explore the presence of the “day-of-the-week” anomaly. The results confirm the presence of “abnormal” effects in some of the currencies and in some days of the week, particularly on Fridays and Mondays. Moreover, volatility in exchange rates shows clustering behavior, as well as leverage effects, which are carefully modelled in our analysis. This paper contributes to the literature by studying the “day-of-the-week” effects in currency exchange rate markets, a clear innovation with respect to the typical stock market analysis. The results reported are useful for foreign exchange market traders, currency exposure management decision makers, monetary authorities, and financial policy designers in the countries included in the study. Indeed, the results suggest the presence of a typical behavior of the exchange rate of all the currencies included in the sample.

An Analysis of the Singapore and Hanoi Denuclearization Summits between the United States and North Korea from a Negotiation Theory Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-123
Author(s):  
Hwee-rhak Park
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Negotiation Strategy ◽  
Positional Strategy ◽  
Negotiation Theory ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This article analyzed the two summits between United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at Singapore and Hanoi in 2018 and 2019 respectively, from a negotiation theory perspective. The results of the analysis showed that the goals and bottom lines of the negotiation between the U.S. and North Korea were quite opposite to reach a meaningful agreement because the former wanted to dismantle North Korean nuclear weapons while the latter did not. President Trump opted for a hard positional negotiation strategy at the Hanoi summit, unlike the soft positional negotiation strategy he opted at the Singapore summit. However, Kim Jong-un maintained a hard positional strategy throughout the whole process which led to the failure of these summits. When it comes to a “Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement” (BATNA), President Trump did not imply any BATNA before or during the Singapore summit, while Kim demonstrated a new BATNA, i.e. China. However, both leaders did not prepare any BATNA for the Hanoi summit, except for a collapse of the negotiation by the U.S. Both of them depended on a top-down decision-making style throughout the whole negotiations without the working-level officials in the decisions. By analyzing all these, the article found that President Trump did not follow the recommendations that negotiation theorists had suggested for a successful negotiation, failing to achieve any progress on the denuclearization of North Korea.

A NEW MEASURE TO QUANTIFY HYSTERESIS LOSSES: THE CASE OF ITALIAN WINE EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (07) ◽  
pp. 2787-2814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jolita Adamonis ◽  
Laura M. Werner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Standard Procedure ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Hysteresis Losses ◽  
Exporting Firms ◽  
Italian Wine ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper introduces a new measure to capture dynamic losses for exporting firms on markets that exhibit hysteresis on the supply side. Our indicator aims to quantify dynamic losses caused by sunk adjustment costs in case of exchange rate fluctuations. While the standard procedure in welfare analysis is to compare two equilibria, we focus on welfare effects that take place during dynamics. We analyze negative dynamic effects on producers' income that are generated due to writing off sunk adjustment costs. As an example, we investigate Italian wine exports to the United States over the period 1995–2013. After testing for hysteresis on the market, we present the indicator of hysteresis losses. It captures a continuous increase of dynamic losses during the period 2003–2008. Moreover, over-proportionately large hysteresis losses are generated in comparison to the exchange rate changes if the pain threshold of the exchange rate (ca. 1.25$/€) is passed.

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