scholarly journals The Effectiveness of the Elliott Waves Theory to Forecast Financial Markets: Evidence from the Currency Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Eugenio D’Angelo ◽  
Giulio Grimaldi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Great Accuracy ◽  
Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Currency Market ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the capability of a technical analysis to be used as a valuable tool in forecasting financial markets. After discussing the primary theoretical and methodological differences that oppose the fundamental analysis and technical analysis and introducing the Elliott waves theory, the paper focuses on the results obtained after applying this method to the currency market. The results show that during the period from 2009-2015, the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and euro could be forecasted with great accuracy. A potential future pattern is also proposed for the exchange rate beginning in March 2017. The research confirmed the usefulness of Elliott’s model for predicting currency markets, and the effectiveness of the fundamental analysis theories generally adopted for academic studies was evaluated.

scholarly journals Can RMB Exchange Rate Expectations Explain the Fluctuations of China’s Housing Prices?

2020 ◽  
pp. 211-233
Author(s):  
Chunni Wang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Rmb Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Exchange Rate Expectations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Rate Expectation

Unlike existing literature that has focused on the relationship between exchange rate and housing price, this paper studies the housing price fluctuations from the perspective of RMB exchange rate expectation to resolve the dilemma “guarantee housing price or exchange rate” after the sub-prime mortgage crisis. This paper shows that housing prices responded negatively to RMB appreciation expectation from 1999 to 2008, and positively from 2009 to 2019. After 2009, exchange rate expectation is the Granger causality of housing prices. After introducing the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) released by Baker et al.(2016), the explanatory power of exchange rate expectations to housing price fluctuations declines but it's still significant. When EPU increased, housing prices responded negatively after a brief positive response. Besides exchange rate expectation, several unobservable factors with rich economic implications can explain the fluctuations of housing prices in China in the interval of 2006M01–2018M12. The empirical results show that the degree of Chinese government reversal intervention, interest rate spread between China and the U.S., and EPU can explain the exchange rate expectation. The government can control the degree of reversal intervention to affect the exchange rate expectation and realize the housing price control indirectly.

scholarly journals Effects of the exchange rate on international prices of pulp and paper in Brazilian currency

CERNE ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-144
Author(s):  
Naisy Silva Soares ◽  
Eliane Pinheiro de Sousa ◽  
Márcio Lopes da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Pulp And Paper ◽  
International Prices ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

This study aimed to analyze effects of the exchange rate adopted in Brazil as well as pulp and paper prices in the U.S. on pulp and paper prices in Brazilian currency, from April 2003 to February 2009. To attain that, the shift-share method was used, and analysis results indicated that price variations in Brazilian currency were more strongly influenced by exchange rate variations than by variations in dollar prices, demonstrating the importance of the exchange rate policy adopted by Brazil in the behavior of pulp and paper prices.

scholarly journals An Essay on Financial Information in the Era of Computerization

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Schinckus
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Economics ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Financial Information ◽  
Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Flash Crash ◽  
Recent Emergence ◽  
Concept Of Information ◽  
Financial Prices

This article deals with the increasing computerization of the financial markets and the consequences of such process on our ability to collect information about financial prices. The concept of information is at the heart of financial economics simply because this notion is a precondition for all investments. Since financial prices characterize an agreement on a transaction between two counterparties, they understandably became a key informational indicator for decision. This article will analyse the increasing computerization of financial sphere by discussing the recent emergence of what is called a “flash crash” and its impact on the traditional ways of collecting information in finance (technical analysis, fundamental analysis and statistical approach). I argue that the growing computerization of financial markets generated a “hyper-reality” in which financial prices do not refer to “something” anymore implying a revision of our usual way of defining/using the notion of information.

U.S.-China Exchange Rate Negotiation: Stakeholders' Participation and Strategy Deployment

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Yixuan Cao ◽  
Yong Cao ◽  
Rashmi Prasad ◽  
Zhengping Shen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negotiation Strategy ◽  
Negotiation Strategies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The U.S

Exchange rates influence a country's trading capability, foreign reserves and competitiveness. Recently, the exchange rate between the Chinese RMB and the U.S. dollar has been a contentious issue in both the United States and China. In this paper, we conduct a historical review of how the United States deployed negotiation strategies with China on the exchange rate issue and consider the degree to which it follows theoretical expectations. We then analyze the changing nature of the factors which shape exchange rate negotiations between the two nations in projecting alternative scenarios for the future of conflict resolution between the U.S. and China on this issue. We predict that the U.S. is likely to continue alternating between competition and collaboration, a negotiation cycle influenced by U.S. domestic politics, and China is less likely to continue with accommodation and compromise. The sequencing and timing of each nation's negotiation strategy will lead to widely divergent consequences for the management of exchange rates and the world economy.

scholarly journals Exchange rate determination and the flaws of mainstream monetary theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-114
Author(s):  
HEINER FLASSBECK
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Monetary Theory ◽  
International Financial Markets ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Exchange Rate Determination ◽  
Equilibrium Level ◽  
The Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT Developing countries in general need flexibility and a sufficient number of instruments to prevent excessive volatility. Evidence does not support the orthodox belief that, with free floating, international financial markets will perform that role by smoothly adjusting exchange rates to their “equilibrium” level. In reality, exchange rates under a floating regime have proved to be highly unstable, leading to long spells of misalignment. The experience with hard pegs has not been satisfactory either: the exchange rate could not be corrected in cases of external shocks or misalignment. Given this experience, “intermediate” regimes are preferable when there is instability in international financial markets.

Does the Information Content of Central Bank Speeches Impact on the Level of Exchange Rate? A Comparative Study of Canadian and Australian Central Bank Communications

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (01) ◽  
pp. 1850005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Becksndale Masawi ◽  
Sukanto Bhattacharya ◽  
Terry Boulter
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Traditionally, central banks have used direct intervention in currency markets when the exchange rate has moved away from equilibrium or when the volatility has been excessive and the literature on the effects of indirect intervention is sparse. We examine whether indirect intervention has any impact on the exchange rate levels by examining the central bank verbal communications in Australia and Canada. We find evidence that the Bank of Canada’s (BOC’s) speeches reduce the mean exchange rate returns but not the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) speeches. Our results show that the socio-economic similarities between countries do not guarantee a similar impact of indirect intervention.

scholarly journals Seasonal and public holiday effects in the commercial rand/dollar exchange rate during the period 1984-1995

1997 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-14
Author(s):  
D. N. Greshnev ◽  
E. V.D.M. Smit
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Holiday Effects ◽  
Daily Changes

The aim of the research is to extend the existing research into seasonalities in financial markets to the South African foreign exchange market to determine whether any of the known seasonal patterns are present in daily changes in the commercial S.A. rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate over the 11-year period, 1984 to 1995. Only statistically significant seasonal patterns in findings in the exchange rate changes for January versus other non-turn-of-the-month days effect are demonstrated. Contrary to the findings for the the mean daily changes, the volatility of the exchange rate demonstrates persistent and statistically significant seasonal anomalies for nearly all of the examined seasonal effects. A number of popular theories offering explanation of the seasonal regularities in the financial markets are offered as possible explanations for the findings.

scholarly journals Hubungan Financial Deepening dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Studi Empiris di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Jihad Lukis Panjawa ◽  
Ira Fitriani Widianingrum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Rate Of Development ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

<p>Financial deepening has been identified as one of the strategies which can accelerate the rate of development. Deepening the financial sector is one important step in the effort to develop the country's financial markets especially developing countries one of which Indonesia. In this research will identify is the relationship between finacial deepening, the exchange rate of rupiah, interest rates and economic growth in Indonesia year of 1985-2015. The approach used in this study is the causality granger. The results in this study was the performance of the financial sector is still shallow. Financial deepening and economic growth have a one-way relationship, namely economic growth affects the financial deepening. Evidence that the introduction of Demand-Following Hypothesis in Indonesia. The exchange rate of the rupiah and financial deepening do not influence each other, as well as economic growth and the exchange rate of the rupiah not influence each other.</p><strong></strong><em></em><strong><em></em></strong>

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