Short-Term Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Expectation and Currency Internationalization: Evidence from China

This paper intended to employ a portfolio approach to assess the effect of exchange rate expectation on Chinese RMB internationalization and empirically test the interactive effects among short-term capital flows, RMB appreciation expectation and the internationalization process using a VAR model with monthly data ranging from February 2004 to December 2020. The results suggest that RMB exchange rate appreciation could lead to an increase in the foreign demand for RMB and RMB denominated assets, while RMB internationalization would attract more short-term capital inflow due to the reduced transaction costs. The empirical evidence from the VAR model estimation confirms the finding that expected RMB appreciation induces short-term capital inflow and promotes RMB internationalization. The robustness checks confirm the evidence. The results have important policy implication for RMB internationalization and for maintaining a sound and stable financial system.

Public satisfaction orientation: Study on strategies for improving service quality of public gymnasiums – analysis based on stacked plot model

The paper conducts an investigation on the service of public gymnasiums focusing on public satisfaction degree by collecting and studying the data about the service quality of public gymnasiums according to satisfaction-oriented multidimensional survey. The satisfaction degrees in the multidimensional research mainly include basic satisfaction rate, expectation satisfaction rate, excitement satisfaction rate, undifferentiated satisfaction rate and reverse satisfaction rate, a total of five dimensions. The service quality of public gymnasiums is subdivided based on these five dimensions and the linear superposition method of stacked plot, which refers to the comparative analysis of the changing tendency of common linear superposition and differential linear superposition, is applied to observe the linear superposition tendency in the process of improving the service quality of public gymnasiums, thus obtaining the specific judgement and analysis of the tendency in service quality. In the social construction and public operation of public gymnasiums in China, service capability has been in a tough dilemma and only by grasping the key factor and combining the targeted strategies obtained from the real survey, can the problems in the development of public gymnasiums be solved effectively and public gymnasiums embrace smooth and sustainable development.

Research on Real-Time Obstacle Avoidance Planning for an Unmanned Surface Vessel based on the Grid Cell Mechanism

Obstacle avoidance navigation for an unmanned surface vessel is a research focus for ship autonomy in which the real-time requirement in practical application is very serious, and always necessitates a complicated structure model to guarantee real-time performance. This paper proposes the grid cell activation model to reduce the complexity of modelling and to simplify an obstacle avoidance algorithm. Combined with the goal-oriented probability model to design a dynamic positive-loss-rate expectation evaluation function, it produces the proper strategy for obstacle avoidance. Case studies on multi-obstacle layouts and special circumstances are conducted and presented. The results indicate that the grid cell obstacle avoidance algorithm can effectively implement obstacle avoidance planning and ensure real-time requirements. A comparison with the potential field algorithm is performed, which shows good results and verifies the feasibility of the algorithm.

Can RMB Exchange Rate Expectations Explain the Fluctuations of China’s Housing Prices?

Unlike existing literature that has focused on the relationship between exchange rate and housing price, this paper studies the housing price fluctuations from the perspective of RMB exchange rate expectation to resolve the dilemma “guarantee housing price or exchange rate” after the sub-prime mortgage crisis. This paper shows that housing prices responded negatively to RMB appreciation expectation from 1999 to 2008, and positively from 2009 to 2019. After 2009, exchange rate expectation is the Granger causality of housing prices. After introducing the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) released by Baker et al.(2016), the explanatory power of exchange rate expectations to housing price fluctuations declines but it's still significant. When EPU increased, housing prices responded negatively after a brief positive response. Besides exchange rate expectation, several unobservable factors with rich economic implications can explain the fluctuations of housing prices in China in the interval of 2006M01–2018M12. The empirical results show that the degree of Chinese government reversal intervention, interest rate spread between China and the U.S., and EPU can explain the exchange rate expectation. The government can control the degree of reversal intervention to affect the exchange rate expectation and realize the housing price control indirectly.

Get Rich or Die Tryin’: Perceived Earnings, Perceived Mortality Rates, and Migration Decisions of Potential Work Migrants from Nepal

This article reports on a randomized field experiment in which potential work migrants from Nepal to Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries are provided with information on wages and mortality incidences at their intended destinations. It is found that, particularly for the group of potential migrants without prior foreign migration experience, the information changes their expectations of earnings and mortality risks abroad, which further changes their actual migration decisions. Using the exogenous variation in expectations, it is estimated that the elasticity of migration with respect to mortality rate expectation is 0.8, and the elasticity of migration with respect to earnings expectation is 1.1.

On the Properties of Leveraged ETFs

In this paper, we examine if, for a successful long-term investment of leveraged ETFs, it is necessary to adjust the level of leverage according to the fluctuations of the financial markets. For this purpose, we illustrate in particular the behavior of the Leverages ETF based on the optimal leverage introduced by Giese (2009). This latter one, which is based on the growth rate expectation, behaves as a function of the prevailing market environment. More precisely, it implies that the investor should use high leverage in low volatility markets and low leverage in high volatility markets. We study also how the degree of leverage depends on the main factor of market environment, namely the volatility of the market in force.

Efektivitas BI7DRR dalam Kerangka Mekanisme Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter untuk Pengendalian Inflasi

Bank Indonesia launched BI 7DRR replacing the BI Rate in order for banks to withdraw their reserves in 7 days' tenure. Thus, banks do not have to wait for 365 days to withdraw their reserves. This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of BI 7DRR in controlling inflation. By using Partial Least Square model estimation (PLS) approach to generate multiple relationships model between factors to the schemes, this research found that on BI Rate scheme BI Rate has a negative effect on credit disbursement and positive effect on interest rate, expectation has negative effect on inflation, consumption has positive effect to GDP, exchange rate has negative effect to export, GDP has negative effect to Inflation, and credit has a positive effect on consumption. Meanwhile, on BI7DRR estimated model shows that BI7DRR has negative effect on expectation and exchange rate but has positive effect on interest rate, exchange rate has positive effect on export, and interest rate has negative effect on investment and credit disbursement. This research also found that the paired samples T Test indicates a significant difference between two mean of inflation according to the two schemes. Therefore, it can be concluded that BI7DRR effective to control the inflation

Pengaruh JUB, Suku Bunga, Inflasi, Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat

Fluctuations of exchange rate against Rupiah to U.S Dollar which unstable are influenced the domestic and foreign’s economicconditions. Macroeconomic conditions in the two countries both Indonesia and United States can make the exchange ratedepreciate or appreciate. The purpose of this research is to acknowledge the difference impact macro variables in both countriesIndonesia and the United States against the value on rupiah to US Dollar. Dynamic model is applied in this research that isPartial Adjustment Model (PAM). This model is considered to existing inertia variable that is expectation of exchange rateinfluence by the value of exchange rate that occurred previously. There are two analysis is descriptive analysis and causalanalysis. Causal is using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. OLS estimation of PAM shows all independent variable havepositive impact to the exchange rate expectation besides difference Export variable, in addition the difference of the interest ratevariable can’t influence the exchange rate significantly on important of the exchange rate expectation. In conclusion, theinterest rate policy is considered to influence the rupiah exchange rate if two countries do not change the interest ratesimultaneously and other macro policy variables must bring into line.