scholarly journals Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates

2011 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
Anthony Rezitis
Keyword(s):  
Government Intervention ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Food Market ◽  
Positive Effect

This article examines food price volatility in Greece and how it is affected by short-run deviations between food prices and macroeconomic factors. The methodology follows the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show that there exists a positive effect between the deviations and food price volatility. The results are highly important for producers and consumers because higher volatility augments the uncertainty in the food markets. Once the participants receive a signal that the food market is volatile, this might lead them to ask for increased government intervention in the allocation of investment resources and this could reduce overall welfare.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

scholarly journals HOW DO GOVERNMENTS RESPOND TO FOOD PRICE SPIKES? LESSONS FROM THE PAST

2010 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 265-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
KYM ANDERSON ◽  
SIGNE NELGEN
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Government Intervention ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The Past ◽  
Domestic Prices

Food prices in international markets spiked upward in 2008, doubling or more in a matter of months. Evidence is still being compiled on policy responses over the following two years, but new time series estimates of government intervention for the previous five decades allow insights into past policy responses to price fluctuations and spikes. This paper reviews the distortionary impacts of policies used by governments attempting to stabilize their domestic food markets. It then focuses on policy responses in the mid-1970s, as reflected in domestic prices and various annual indicators of distortions to producer and consumer incentives, before drawing out some policy lessons.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Food Price Volatility and Households’ Welfare in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 49-60
Author(s):  
Onwusiribe Ndubuisi Chigozirim ◽  
Nto Philips Okore ◽  
Oteh Ogbonnaya Ukeh ◽  
Agwu Nnanna Mba
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

One of the most important economic factors in food choice is the price. Food dynamics' value is a subject of controversies and opinions, especially price issues, and sensitivity is often peculiar to seasons and market forces. Price dynamics have the potential to introduce and change consumptions, thus affecting household welfare. This study examined the dynamics of food price volatility and households' welfare in Nigeria from 1990: Q1 to 2019: Q4. We sourced the study data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank (WB). We estimated the quadratic trend equation, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. Food prices and depth of food deficit had a significant short-run impact on the households' welfare. Policymakers should focus on the short-term benefits while formulating policies aimed at households' welfare because policies aimed at the household level are impactful in the short-run compared to the long-run.

Unlearned lessons of food price spikes

2021 ◽  
pp. 25-45
Author(s):  
R. R. Gumerov
Keyword(s):  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Market ◽  
Essential Food ◽  
Domestic Food ◽  
Price Spikes

The article substantiates the author’s hypothesis of the fundamental reasons for periodic «ups» in prices for essential food products, including the most recent price jump in the second half of 2020. Both the official assessments of the causes of recurring food price surges and the measures taken by the executive branch to stop and prevent them are subjected to critical analysis. Conclusions and fundamental proposals are formulated aimed at eradicating the systemic causes of price volatility in the domestic food market.

Food price volatility and socio-inequalities in household food insecurity during coronavirus disease-2019 lockdown in Nansana municipality, Wakiso district Uganda

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Buzigi ◽  
Stephen Onakuse
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Household Food Insecurity ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
Household Food

Abstract BackgroundThis study assessed staple food price volatility, food consumption scores (FCS) and prevalence of household food insecurity (HHFI) and its socio-inequalities during enforcing and lifting corona virus disease -2019 (COVID-19) lockdown in Nansana municipality, Uganda.MethodsA repeated households (HHs) based cross-sectional study was conducted in urban Nansana Municipality, Uganda. A total of 405 HHs (205 slum and 200 non-slum) were selected using stratified random sampling. Data on social demographics and FCS in the previous 7 days were collected using questionnaire-based telephone interviews with HH heads. Prices for staple foods was collected by asking food sellers from local markets. Mean staple food price differences between before COVID-19 lockdown and during enforcing or lifting the lockdown was tested by paired t test. A binary outcome of HHFI (FCS of 0-35) and food secure (FCS>35) HHs was created. The association between exposure variables and HHFI was tested using multivariate logistic regression analysis at a probability value of 5%.ResultsMean price of staple food significantly increased between before and during enforcing the COVID-19 lockdown (p <0.0001). Mean FCS during COVID-19 lockdown were at borderline for either slum (22.8) or non-slum (22.9) HHs, and were not significantly different from each other (p=0.06). During partial lifting of the lockdown, FCS among slum HHs were significantly lower at 20.1 (poor) compared to non-slum HHs at 22.7 (borderline) (p=0.01). The mean FCS was significantly higher at borderline (24.5) among HHs that received food aid compared to poor FCS (18.2) among slum HHs that did not receive food aid (p<0.0001). The prevalence of HHFI was high and not significantly different (p>0.05) between slum (94.6%) and non-slum (93.5%) HHs during COVID-19 lockdown. HHFI was higher in slum (98.5%) than non-slum (94%) HHs (p<0.05) on partial lifting of the lockdown. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) showed that being a wage earner and employed HH head was positively (AOR: 8.3, 95% CI: 1.9-36.2) and negatively (AOR: 0.07, CI: 0.02-0.2) associated with HHFI, respectively. During partial lifting of COVID-19 lockdown, slum HHs (AOR: 11.8, 95% CI: 1.5-91.3), female headed HHs (AOR: 11.9, 95%CI: 1.5-92.7), wage earners (AOR: 10.7, 95% CI: 1.4-82.9) and tenants (AOR: 4.0, 95% CI: 1.1- 14.7) were positively associated with HHFI. Conclusion Staple food prices increased during enforcing COVID-19 lockdown compared before lockdown. Food aid distribution during COVID-19 lockdown improved FCS among slum HHs, however, it did not prevent against slum HHFI.

Structure and Food Price Inflation

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya Rahkovsky ◽  
Richard Volpe
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Market Concentration ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Retail Market ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Market Shares

AbstractWe pair Nielsen TDLinx data, 2004–2014, with Consumer Price Index data to investigate how changes in food retail market structure drive food price inflation. We find, in corroboration with much of the evidence to date, that market concentration is positively and significantly associated with higher food prices. We find the same to be true for store format concentration, or the homogeneity of food markets. As the market shares, or penetration, of supercenters, warehouse stores, limited assortment stores, and superettes increase at expense of traditional supermarkets, food price inflation decreases.

scholarly journals The Transmission of Global Commodity Prices to Consumer Prices in a Commodity Import-Dependent Country: Evidence from Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32
Author(s):  
Mounir El-Karimi ◽  
El-Ghini Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses the Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test to examine the effect of global oil and food price changes on the inflation in Morocco over the period from 1998Q1 to 2018Q1. The results show significant transmission from oil and food prices to domestic inflation. Specifically, the food prices are shown more important than oil prices in explaining inflation in the short-run, which reflects the high weight of food in the consumption basket. However, the effect of oil prices on inflation is much more persistent than the effect of food prices. Furthermore, the impact of commodity price shocks on inflation exhibits asymmetries. The oil price hikes affect more weakly the inflation than oil price decreases, whereas the food price increases are more transmitted to inflation than food price decreases. Our findings may provide useful information to researchers and policymakers in formulating more appropriate monetary policy.

scholarly journals Determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 165-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Olaleke Fasanya ◽  
Feyikunayo Olawepo
Keyword(s):  
Direct Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Data Frequency

Abstract In this paper we examined the determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria using monthly data from January, 1997 to April, 2017. We employed the multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. In particular, the Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) model and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model were used for estimation. The findings showed that information shocks originating in Consumer Price Indices (CPI), lending rate, exchange rate and oil market have a direct effect on the current conditional volatility in food market while the information shocks originating in food have a direct effect on the current conditional volatility in all the markets considered except for oil. These results were insensitive to changes in data frequency and different oil price specification. Hence, the government should encourage the use of alternative sources of energy to reduce the effect of high oil prices on food prices and provide soft agricultural credit scheme to farmers with a low lending rate through specialized banks.

Food Prices and Food Price Volatility

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald F. Larson
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Index Insurance ◽  
Contract Farming ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Terms Of Trade Volatility ◽  
Trade Volatility

This chapter examines food prices from 1900 to 2015. Despite growing populations, rising incomes, new technologies, globalization, and the emergence of commodities as an asset class, no trends are evident in food price levels or volatility. Still, food prices have averaged higher since 2010, harming the poor and raising fears that agricultural productivity growth has slowed. Consistently since 1900, food prices have been more volatile than the prices of manufactured goods and most other commodity groups. This relation drives terms-of-trade volatility, which slows economic growth. At the farm level, price volatility impedes investment and technology adoption, and encourages low-income livelihood strategies. Past policies to manage food prices have not worked and governments have shifted to policies aimed at mitigating the consequences of high and volatile food prices. Extending the reach of risk markets, warehouse receipt systems, index insurance, and contract farming can be useful policy components.

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