scholarly journals Dynamics of Food Price Volatility and Households’ Welfare in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 49-60
Author(s):  
Onwusiribe Ndubuisi Chigozirim ◽  
Nto Philips Okore ◽  
Oteh Ogbonnaya Ukeh ◽  
Agwu Nnanna Mba
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

One of the most important economic factors in food choice is the price. Food dynamics' value is a subject of controversies and opinions, especially price issues, and sensitivity is often peculiar to seasons and market forces. Price dynamics have the potential to introduce and change consumptions, thus affecting household welfare. This study examined the dynamics of food price volatility and households' welfare in Nigeria from 1990: Q1 to 2019: Q4. We sourced the study data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank (WB). We estimated the quadratic trend equation, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. Food prices and depth of food deficit had a significant short-run impact on the households' welfare. Policymakers should focus on the short-term benefits while formulating policies aimed at households' welfare because policies aimed at the household level are impactful in the short-run compared to the long-run.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mourad Zmami ◽  
Ousama Ben-Salha
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

The macroeconomic outcomes of oil price fluctuations have been at the forefront of the debate among economists, financial analysts and policymakers over the last decades. Among others, the oil price–food price nexus has particularly received a great deal of attention. While an abundant body of literature has focused on the linear relationship between oil price and food price, little is known regarding the nonlinear interactions between them. The aim of this paper is to conduct aggregated and disaggregated analyses of the impact of the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices on international food prices between January 1990 and October 2017. The empirical investigation is based on the estimation of linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The findings confirm the presence of asymmetries since the overall food price is only affected by positive shocks on oil price in the long-run. While the dairy price index reacts to both positive and negative changes of oil price, the impact of oil price increases is found to be greater. Finally, the asymmetry is present for some other agricultural commodity prices in the short-run, since they respond only to oil price decreases. All in all, the study concludes that studies assuming the presence of a symmetric impact of oil price on food price might be flawed. The findings are important for the undertaking of future studies and the design of international and national policies in the fight against food insecurity.

scholarly journals Farm wage and Rice Price dynamics in Bangladesh

Food Security ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Fuad Hassan ◽  
Lukas Kornher
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Standard Vector ◽  
Agricultural Wages ◽  
Pass Through

AbstractEmpirical findings explaining the wage-price nexus in Bangladesh are diverse and conflicting. A proper understanding of the relationship between food prices and farm wages is essential for planning policies in support of the wellbeing and food security of the rural poor. In exploring the link between food prices and rising agricultural wages, this study analyzes the dynamic relations between those two by using monthly data from 1994 to 2014. A standard vector error correction model (VECM) is implemented to determine the short-run and long-run relationships between wages and food prices in eight divisions in Bangladesh. In addition, we use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to estimate the pass-through coefficients and to compare the short-run effects of rice price and urban wage shocks on agricultural wages. We find statistical evidence for a structural break between January 2007 and January 2009 in the relationships of the variables in all divisions. Different to the period until 2007/2009, after the structural break, in six out of eight divisions, rice price shocks do not transmit to the farm wages in the short-run. Moreover, our findings show that in the long-run food prices have become less influential in explaining the changes in farm wages while the influence of urban wages has become stronger in some divisions.

scholarly journals Food security and agricultural markets:

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 359-366
Author(s):  
Maria Vitória Fabbio Carrocini ◽  
Vinícius Eduardo Ferrari ◽  
Paulo Ricardo Silva Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sub Saharan

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the food price crises in 2007-2008 and 2011-2012 led to increases in the number of undernourished people worldwide. In this study, we address the issue of food insecurity by analyzing the main causes behind the food price shocks in the 2000s. Moreover, we also investigate whether the sub-Saharan countries are most vulnerable to these shocks, as often pointed out by specialized literature. To this end, we analyzed the correlation between the maize domestic prices—the most cultivated and consumed grain in this region—and the daily kilocalories consumption in African countries. Results show that the poorest nations, i.e. the ones with per capita income below $ 1,400, suffer most from food prices crisis. Most African countries have advanced in addressing food insecurity issues. However, in some nations, the maize price shock in 2007‒2008 was a throwback in this progress, causing daily kilocalorie consumption to fall by half in relation to levels of early-2000s.

scholarly journals Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates

2011 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
Anthony Rezitis
Keyword(s):  
Government Intervention ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Food Market ◽  
Positive Effect

This article examines food price volatility in Greece and how it is affected by short-run deviations between food prices and macroeconomic factors. The methodology follows the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show that there exists a positive effect between the deviations and food price volatility. The results are highly important for producers and consumers because higher volatility augments the uncertainty in the food markets. Once the participants receive a signal that the food market is volatile, this might lead them to ask for increased government intervention in the allocation of investment resources and this could reduce overall welfare.

Dynamics of Food Inflation: Assessing the Role of Intermediaries

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1363-1378
Author(s):  
Sugandha Huria ◽  
Kanika Pathania
Keyword(s):  
Food Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Food Grains ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
Food Grain

The recent upsurge in the food prices experienced by the Indian economy since the latter half of 2000s has made it imperative for the policymakers to identify the crucial factors, which affect food prices within the economy. Against this backdrop, the present article determines the various key factors impacting the prices of food grains, specifically elucidating the role of intermediaries in this regard. By applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and quantifying the role of intermediaries by computing the price wedge between wholesale and retail prices of food grains, the study establishes the existence of both short-run and long-run relationships between price wedge and food grain inflation.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

scholarly journals Determinants of Insurance Penetration in West African Countries: A Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 350
Author(s):  
Odunayo Olarewaju ◽  
Thabiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
West African ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Insurance Penetration ◽  
The Government

This study analyses the long- and short-term dynamics of the determinants of insurance penetration for the period 1999Q1 to 2019Q4 in 15 West African countries. The panel auto regressive distributed lag model was used on the quarterly data gathered. A cointegrating and short-run momentous connection was discovered between insurance penetration along with the independent variables, which were education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income. The error correction term’s significance and negative sign demonstrate that all variables are heading towards long-run equilibrium at a moderate speed of 56.4%. This further affirms that education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income determine insurance penetration in West Africa in the long run. In addition, the short-run causality revealed that all the pairs of regressors could jointly cause insurance penetration. The findings of this study recommend that the economy-wide policies by the government and the regulators of insurance markets in these economies should be informed by these significant factors. The restructuring of the education sector to ensure finance-related modules cut across every faculty in the higher education sector is also recommended. Furthermore, Bancassurance is also recommended to boost the easy penetration of the insurance sector using the relationship with the banking sector as a pathway.

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