GIMME A BREAK! IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS IN THE UNITED STATES

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1613-1651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Bacchiocchi ◽  
Efrem Castelnuovo ◽  
Luca Fanelli
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Break Point ◽  
The United States ◽  
Recursive Identification ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Identification Scheme ◽  
Identification Schemes ◽  
Alternative Break ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

We employ a non-recursive identification scheme to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model for the US post-WWII quarterly data. The identification of the shock is achieved via heteroskedasticity, and different on-impact macroeconomic responses are allowed for (but not imposed) in each volatility regime. We show that the impulse responses obtained with the suggested non-recursive identification scheme are quite similar to those conditional on a recursive VAR estimated with pre-1984 data. In contrast, recursive vs. non-recursive identification schemes return different short-run responses of output and investment during the Great Moderation. Robustness checks dealing with a different definition of investment, an alternative break-point, and federal funds futures rates as an indicator of the monetary policy stance are documented and discussed.

Monetary Policy Disturbance in India: The Relationships Among Money, Output and Prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 246-257
Author(s):  
Apica Sharma ◽  
Ibrahim Nurudeen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

The study examines the relationships among money supply, output and prices. Quarterly data were sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which spanned from 1996 Q2 to 2019 Q1. Four variables were included in the study: GDP, inflation (Consumer Price Index [CPI]) and two measures of money supply (M1 and M3). The findings of the study reveal that money supply is correlated with India’s output as well as inflation. Johansen’s test of co-integration reveals the existence of a long-term relationship among the variables. Another striking finding of this study is that neither M1 nor M3 could cause output (GDP) in the short run, but both Granger-cause inflation in the short run, which may be attributed to the output growth capacity limit of the country. The monetary policy disturbance in relation to other variables was examined through a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that indicates that the two measures of money supply exert a positive impact on GDP. Similarly, the finding also shows that a monetary policy shock from the two measures of money supply causes a positive and continuous increase in inflation in India. Thus, money supply measure M3 is a potential indicator of movement in India’s output; hence the monetary authority should be mindful of inflation while targeting output expansion through money supply.

The dynamic effects of monetary policy innovations in Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 169-180
Author(s):  
Naser Yenus Nuru
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Identification Schemes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of unanticipated monetary policy innovations on output and price for Ethiopia from 1991:Q1 to 2016:Q1. Design/methodology/approach Short run and long run identification schemes on structural vector autoregressive model are employed in this study. Findings The impulse response function results generated show that while a positive shock in interest rate causes a reduction in output and price puzzle, a positive shock to broad money supply has a positive and significant effect on output and price. A positive shock in real effective exchange rate has also an expansionary, though insignificant, effect on impact on both output and price. These results are especially true for the short run identification scheme. As to the results from the variance decomposition, the study shows that the highest variation in output and price is caused by broad money supply shock in the short run. Originality/value It adds to the scarce empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy innovations on the Ethiopian economy.

scholarly journals Choosing between identification schemes in noisy-news models

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua C. C. Chan ◽  
Eric Eisenstat ◽  
Gary Koop
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Identification Scheme ◽  
Identification Schemes ◽  
The One ◽  
Small Models ◽  
Structural Vector

AbstractThis paper is about identifying structural shocks in noisy-news models using structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models. We develop a new identification scheme and efficient Bayesian methods for estimating the resulting SVARMA. We discuss how our identification scheme differs from the one which is used in existing theoretical and empirical models. Our main contributions lie in the development of methods for choosing between identification schemes. We estimate specifications with up to 20 variables using US macroeconomic data. We find that our identification scheme is preferred by the data, particularly as the size of the system is increased and that noise shocks generally play a negligible role. However, small models may overstate the importance of noise shocks.

scholarly journals The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 690-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Paul
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
House Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks

This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared to the response of output, the reaction of stock and house prices to monetary policy shocks was particularly low before the 2007–2009 financial crisis.

TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS: DO INPUT–OUTPUT INTERACTIONS MATTER?

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 1881-1903
Author(s):  
Aarti Singh ◽  
Stefano Tornielli Di Crestvolant
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

We examine whether input–output interactions among industries impact the transmission of monetary policy shocks through the economy. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) methods we find evidence of heterogeneity in the output response to a monetary policy shock in both finished goods industries and intermediate goods industries. While output responses in finished goods industries can be related to heterogeneity in industry characteristics, this relationship is not so obvious for intermediate goods industries. For the intermediate goods industries in our sample, we find new evidence of demand-spillover effects that impact the transmission of monetary policy via input–output linkages.

scholarly journals The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristiano Cantore ◽  
Filippo Ferroni ◽  
Miguel León-Ledesma
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Labor Share ◽  
Nk Model ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

Abstract The textbook New Keynesian (NK) model implies that the labor share is procyclical conditional on a monetary policy shock. We present evidence that a monetary policy tightening robustly increased the labor share and decreased real wages during the Great Moderation period in the United States, the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. We show that this is inconsistent not only with the basic NK model, but also with medium-scale NK models commonly used for monetary policy analysis and where it is possible to break the direct link between the labor share and the inverse markup. Our results imply that either NK models are unable to separate the dynamics of the labor share from the markup or markups do not respond in the way NK models predict.

scholarly journals Regional economic structure and heterogeneous effects of monetary policy: evidence from Indonesian provinces

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Aginta ◽  
Masakazu Someya
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
Structural Variables ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe analyze how regional economic structures affect the impact of monetary policy on rates of inflation across 34 Indonesian provinces. The paper first applies structural factor augmented vector autoregressive model (SFAVAR) to all the 34 provinces based on monthly provincial data in order to measure the length and magnitude of responses of regional inflation to monetary policy shock, derived from the consequential impulse response functions of 34 provinces. In the second step, we analyze the impact of economic structures on the length and magnitude of regional inflationary responses of 34 provinces. We find that the impacts of monetary policy across regions are significantly influenced by economic structural variables such as manufacturing sector share to GDP, mining sector share to GDP, bank lending share to GDP and export share to GDP. In addition, we found the spatial lag, rate of inflation of neighboring provinces, is also statistically significant. In a similar fashion, economic structural variables such as manufacturing sector share to GDP, construction sector share to GDP and investment share to GDP are found statistically significant in explaining regional differences of monetary policy efficiency. Our findings imply economic structures of provinces have to be incorporated to designing monetary policy in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Openness and the strength of monetary transmission: International evidence

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 639-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Ćorić ◽  
Lena Malešević Perović ◽  
Vladimir Šimić
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

This study explores cross-country variations in the size of the effects of a monetary policy shock on output using the sample of 48 developed and developing countries. The structural vector autoregression model is used to estimate monetary policy effects for each country separately. Based on the estimated impulse responses, we construct a measure of the short-run monetary policy effect on output, which is used as the dependent variable in a cross-country regression. Our results suggest that the effects of monetary policy shock on output are significantly influenced by trade openness, exchange rate regime, correlation with the US and for European countries with the German economy, and the development of the banking sector.

scholarly journals Effects of unconventional monetary policy on income and wealth distribution: Evidence from United States and Eurozone

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 535-558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan-Francisco Albert ◽  
Nerea Gómez-Fernández ◽  
Carlos Ochando
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Wealth Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Household Wealth ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Income And Wealth Distribution

As an answer to the ?Great Recession? and Zero Lower Bound problem, main central banks had to use unconventional monetary policy (UMP). This research focuses on the distributive effects of these measures on household income and household wealth in the United States of America (USA) and the Eurozone. For this purpose, this paper presents four models that were constructed using the Structural Vector Autoregressive methodology (SVAR). The results suggest that the UMPs applied by the Federal Reserve (FED) in the USA could increase wealth and income inequality through the portfolio channel. However, the same results were not observed in the Eurozone.

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